Oak’s Corner: A Sweet Suarez Season

The Week That Was

When looking at the National League RBI leaders, it's no surprise to see Nolan Arenado in a tie for the lead with 63 RBIs, but it's a surprise to see him tied with the Reds' third baseman, Eugenio Suarez. It's even more surprising considering that Suarez spent time on the DL and has played less games than anyone else in the top 25 in in the NL. Suarez has really had an exceptional first half, as in addition to the , he is hitting .308 while smoking 17 home runs.

Suarez has managed to cut his strikeout rate significantly to a career-low 18.6 percent even while hitting the ball way harder than at any point in his career. His career high hard hit rate prior to 2018 was a 34.9 percent mark in 2016, but through 70 games, he sits at an absurd 51.9 percent hard hit rate, which is second in all of baseball, just behind A's first baseman Matt Olson. He enters the summer months hitting fourth or fifth every day for the Reds in a solid home park and hitting behind Joey Votto and his .426 OBP. Even more impressive is how consistent Suarez has been all season, hitting at least .296 in every month and never slipping below a 47 percent hard hit rate in any month. Suarez was really good last year, but is blossoming into a full-blown star this season and is someone I am full hold on right now and not looking to sell high on.

Probably my favorite draft day value this year was Aaron Hicks of the Yankees. That call looked really bad when Hicks went on the DL after an injury the first day of the season and looked even worse when he struggled after coming off the DL in mid-April and was hitting only .230 after the end of May. Hicks has finally caught fire, hitting .300 in 114 plate appearances since June 1st and has also found the power stroke with 10 homers in that stretch, including a three-homer game last Sunday night against the Red Sox. One of the key factors for Hicks is that he's easily the best center fielder defensively on their roster and that keeps him in this lineup where you can almost fall into counting stats with all the stud home run hitters surrounding him.

The most exciting aspect of Hicks' profile so far this year is his sizeable improvement in his hard hit rate. After topping 30 percent for the first time in 2017, he has jumped that number up to 42.9 percent this year and has also paired that with a career-high 43.1 percent fly ball rate. It likely goes without saying, but I love Hicks so I will say it anyway, but hard hit fly balls are a very good thing in Yankee Stadium. In addition, Hicks is walking at 12.5 percent while striking out under 19 percent, as he builds on his excellent marks in those categories from 2017, part of why a lot of people, not just me of course, liked him as a breakout target. He has also tossed in seven steals, and while he's not the big stolen base threat he was in the minors, he has a shot to top his career high 13 steals from 2016. The window to buy Hicks low is likely finally closed, but I would still buy him at his current price and love his chances to continue to produce in the warm weather and in that lineup and stadium all summer.

It feels like there are a lot of hitters really hitting their stride over the last month (hi, Paul Goldschmidt!), but one of those guys who continues to struggle is Jonathan Schoop. After a career year in 2017 with 32 homers, 105 and a .293 batting average, Schoop has been a huge disappointment in 2018 with a .202 average, a DL stint and only eight homers. His .228 BABIP has hurt the batting average after he posted a .330 BABIP in 2017, but his batted ball profile definitely has some real issues. A year after posting a 36.1 percent hard hit rate, Schoop has crashed to a career low 23.8 percent mark, which places him in the bottom five in all of baseball, putting him in the neighborhood of a bunch of nonpower hitters.

Most recently, Schoop's June was especially ugly with a .144 batting average and an extremely low 11.1 percent line drive rate. He's actually striking out a tad less than the last two years (but essentially the same) and still never walks, but the lack of solid contact is concerning. If he had suffered a wrist or shoulder injury, I'd attribute it to that still affecting him, but once he came back from the oblique injury, I don't think that it was bothering him anymore. I entered into this deeper look at him thinking it would be an easy buy low, and I may still consider it if the price is really right since his last two years do exist, but I'm concerned about how he's putting the ball in play, and if Machado is dealt, this offense might look really ugly for the final two months.

FAAB Feelings

Mike Minor – Minor is an interesting guy as we head into July as he was pretty good in April, horrible in May and then flipped the switch back and had a great June. In four starts in June, he allowed a total of six runs and only 15 hits in 26 innings, even tossing in a seven-inning, one-hit game against the Padres. A closer look at his June sees that he dropped his walk rate to a very nice 1.73 BB/9, but his strikeout rate also dropped to only 6.23 K/9. He was helped by a .200 BABIP over those four starts, but that didn't come with any move to more soft contact as his hard hit rate in the month was a big 45.1 percent. He was also assisted by a lucky 2.9 percent HR/FB rate that has no chance to sustain giving up that many hard hit balls.

Minor has two starts this week and could be a popular add with his recent success, but those bids will likely be tempered due to that fact that the first start is at Fenway. Of course, a guy who’s pitching well with a two-start week will always get some attention, but I recommend staying away as his recent run of success looks more luck driven than any sort of step up in his skills. I added him in one deeper league for the start against San Diego and I might even drop him even with the two-start week coming as I just can't fathom watching that start vs. the Red Sox with him in my lineup.

Jackie Bradley Jr. – After a brutal start to the season, Bradley was dropped in a lot of 12-team leagues and finds himself owned in only 31 percent of the NFBC 12-team leagues. Bradley is hitting only .202 on the season but has finally found a spark, hitting .293 over his past 13 games. After a 26-homer season in 2016 where he hit .267, he regressed in 2017 with a .245 average and 16 homers, but I surely didn't see him falling this far off the table. He frequently hits ninth for the Sox, but if you're going to hit ninth in a lineup, at least the Red Sox' is the best one to do it in.

The most interesting part of Bradley's season has been his focus on stealing bases, as his nine bags ties his career high and he has done it in only half a season. Bradley's hard hit rate is back at his 2016 level at 36.3 percent, and his fly ball rate is also the same as it was when he smashed those 26 homers. With his speed and hard hitting, I think a decent run of batting average is coming, and if he keeps on running as he gets on base more, he could be looking at a 20 stolen base season in a year when stolen bases are really tough to come by. Right now, I like Bradley as an add in 12-team leagues (he's likely still owned in any 15-team league you play in) and I'd would consider attempting to trade for him in deeper leagues while his batting average is still at a level when his owner might relish the chance to get rid of him. Bradley isn't going to win a league by himself, but I think his strong run continues and he will end up being a fantasy asset for teams in the second half.

A Closer Look

As we enter July, the biggest question in trying to find some closers down the stretch is trying to decide which closers might get dealt before the end of July's trade deadline. We already saw Kevin Herrera get dealt, but with many of us (me included) low in FAAB for the rest of the season, now is the time to grab a guy or two as a speculative play before a trade happens and the new guy becomes pricey.

Before I get into a couple of options, a number of people have asked me whether I think the A's will trade Blake Treinen. Their recent hot play has put them only seven games out of the Wild Card, but that is still a good chunk of games and this 10-day road trip they are beginning (at Cleveland, Houston and San Francisco) may determine whether they consider themselves sellers or buyers at the deadline. My gut feel is that they are going to hold Treinen, as the possibility of a Mariners cold streak could put them right in the race, but even more importantly, they really like Treinen, and he isn't a free agent until after the 2020 season. They are never one to shy away from moving a closer, and his salary is going to climb rapidly the next two years in arbitration, but I think it would take a really poor July that knocks them out of the race plus a Godfather type offer (one they can't refuse) to cause them to move Treinen this month.

In looking for bad teams with good closers who may be desired by other teams, my first stop is in San Diego with the Padres. Brad Hand has posted another strong season for the Friars with a 3.12 ERA and 12.94 strikeouts per nine. His walks and ERA are up a bit from last year, but he's still likely to be someone the Padres will field a lot of calls about in the next few weeks, especially for anyone who needs a lefty late in games. The nice part of this situation if you want to speculate on it, is that the Padres have Kirby Yates, a setup guy having an exceptional year.

The 31-year-old Yates has only allowed three runs all year in his 34 innings, which comes out to a sparkling 0.79 ERA. Yates hasn't matched his career high 13.98 K/9 strikeout rate last year, but it's still good at 10.85 K/9, and he has managed to cut his walks down to 2.38 batters per nine and has only allowed one homer. Yates is clearly in line as the next guy and sometimes that is just as important as how well a guy might be pitching at the moment, as we want to grab someone we think will end up closing if a trade does occur.

The Padres did give Hand a three-year extension in the offseason, which may signal they want him to be there where their solid crop of young prospects comes up to the majors, but as a last-place team one would think they have to listen on Hand if the right prospect package is proposed. Yates has been scooped up already in deeper leagues by fantasy owners not only betting on a Hand trade, but also due to his exceptional ratios, but he's still there for the taking in 70 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues.

Keone Kela has been a bright spot for the last place Rangers, posting a 3.48 ERA with 21 saves as he has stabilized the Rangers closer role, a job that was in flux coming into the last week of spring training. Kela has even been better than his ERA suggests, as a couple of really poor outing early in the season (7 ER in 1.1 innings) have bloated his ERA. He has only allowed three earned runs over his last 16 appearances and has yet to register a blown save, although he did allow four runs once with a four run lead.

With the Rangers in last place, Kela could be a nice piece for a contender to pick up at the deadline, but the question for us then becomes who would close for the Rangers. Unlike the Padres, there is no real clear cut option, and they could go to a committee, but if I had to grab someone in that mix now as a spec play, it would be Jose Leclerc, but I really don't love anyone in the situation.

Jake Diekman is 31, and his walks were sky high (8.44 BB/9) last year and are a big issue again this year at 5.52 free passes per nine. Leclerc also has his issues with walks with a walk rate right around 5.00 BB/9, but he also has 41 strikeouts in 30.2 innings, and at 24 years with an ERA of 2.35 this year, I think the Rangers would use the last two months of the season to test Leclerc in the role while the stakes are low. He's a bit of a longshot for sure, but the trade market for Kela is going to heat up, and Leclerc is readily available as he's owned in zero NFBC Main Event leagues and only one percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. He's worth a very cheap stab in the next two weeks as a stash until the trade deadline just in case he falls into the role.

Series of the Weekend

Braves at Brewers – This promises to be a very fun series, pitting two division leaders against each other, and it started on Thursday night with a well-pitched game by Jhoulys Chacin leading to a 7-2 Brewers win. The young Braves continue to thrive and currently sport the third best run differential in the National League at +72 and open the weekend with a one-game lead on the Phillies and a six-game lead over the slumping Nationals. The Braves have continued to ride their offense, which ranks second in the National League in runs, but it must be noted that their pitching has hung in there, too, with a 3.76 team ERA. The back end of their bullpen is a huge advantage for them in any playoff series as they feature three guys with an ERA under 3.00 and more than a strikeout per inning in A.J. Minter, Dan Winkler and Arodys Vizcaino.

In one of the more surprising stories of the 2018 campaign, Nick Markakis continues to rake for the Braves and leads the team with 58 and he has already jumped into double digit homers after hitting eight all of last year while playing 160 games. Amazingly, he has ramped up the power while striking out less, currently sitting at a career low 10.4 percent strikeout rate. In addition to the elite contact rate, Markakis, who has never topped a 35 percent hard hit rate and his career high was all the way back in 2007, currently sports a 41.1 percent hard hit rate. Anyone who grabbed Markakis off waivers has been supremely rewarded this year, and his hitting fourth in this lineup is a lovely spot to live.

The Brewers enter the weekend with the best record in the National League at 52-35, but find themselves in a tight battle in the NL Central with the red-hot Cubs who have won six in a row. One would expect the Brewers to be thriving off offense after adding Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the offseason plus the Jesus Aguilar breakout we discussed last week, but their offense is merely middle of the pack in runs scored and OPS, while their pitching staff has carried them with a 3.55 team ERA, good for fifth best in baseball.

On Sunday, they will send Junior Guerra to the mound. He's been fantastic for them so far with a 2.87 ERA through 16 starts and 87.2 innings. After a breakout 2016 where Guerra posted a 2.81 ERA, he struggled in a big way in 2017 with a 5.12 ERA (and a 6.58 FIP!) in 70.1 innings, earning a trip to the minors and ending the season in the bullpen. He has responded in a big way this season, sporting a career high 9.03 K/9 strikeout rate, while dropping his walks significantly from 2017, currently at 3.48 BB/9. Also of note is that Guerra is throwing harder this season with a fastball that is averaging 93.2 mph after only averaging 91.9 mph last season. However, his batted ball profile does have some concerns as he's currently surrendering a 41 percent hard hit rate. He gives up more than 40 percent fly balls, and if that hard hit rate keeps up, his HR/FB is certainly going to rise from the current level of 10.3 percent. So, while he's showing some good stuff compared to last year, the hard hit profile has me concerned that some hiccups will be on their way shortly. Enjoy this series and your weekend!