This article is part of our The Z Files series.
CATCHER
Gary Sanchez checks in at the top spot, despite toting a meager .228 average but he's pacing ahead of his power projections. His BABIP is low, driven by a low line drive rate. However, Sanchez's hard hit rate remains exceptional and there's a lot of variance with line drive rate, so expect the average to enjoy some of the good kind of regression.
Remember when Austin Barnes was all the rage, expected to usurp significant playing time from Yasmani Grandal? Lost in this scenario was Grandal was a Statcast darling as his contact metrics were outstanding. Better outcomes along with
CATCHER
Gary Sanchez checks in at the top spot, despite toting a meager .228 average but he's pacing ahead of his power projections. His BABIP is low, driven by a low line drive rate. However, Sanchez's hard hit rate remains exceptional and there's a lot of variance with line drive rate, so expect the average to enjoy some of the good kind of regression.
Remember when Austin Barnes was all the rage, expected to usurp significant playing time from Yasmani Grandal? Lost in this scenario was Grandal was a Statcast darling as his contact metrics were outstanding. Better outcomes along with health have propelled Grandal to the second spot. He may not maintain this lofty rank, but he's the clear top backstop for the Dodgers.
There aren't many surprises at the top end, other than Francisco Cervelli. The Pirates receiver has always been able to hit but he was (and still is) a risk due to an extensive concussion history. That said, even when healthy, he doesn't project to be a top-five catcher.
Obviously, the 80-game suspension for EPO, banned by MLB will drop Castillo from the rankings. The seemingly routine analysis that neither Omar Narvaez nor Kevan Smith will be a fantasy asset is likely true, but who thought Luke Maile or Nick Hundley would be a C1 in a 15-team mixed league?
Speaking of Maile and Hundley making the list, this speaks to how disappointing Evan Gattis, Brian McCann and Jonathan Lucroy have been. Gattis is especially frustrating since much of his allure was regular at-bats as designated hitter, which have now evaporated.
FIRST BASE
During my NFBC Main Event league, I picked Joey Votto with the second pick of the second round. He was ranked within my top 10 overall, which I felt was justified seeing as Votto finished the last two seasons as the 9th and 11th best fantasy performer. Yet, the instant I enunciated the second "o", I had buyer's remorse, ruing not trusting my gut with Freddie Freeman. I suspect Votto with narrow the gap by season's end but I'll still regret picking Votto.
Sorry, but I don't know what's wrong with Paul Goldschmidt. You know the deal. His away numbers and splits versus southpaws are fine; he's a mess at home. It's obviously more than the humidor, but the "getting into his head" narrative certainly holds water. In a recent column, Buster Olney reported Goldschmidt has seen 71 pitches at least 96 mph, without getting a single hit on any of them. The implication is Goldschmidt's woes revolve around losing bat speed. OK, makes sense, but the problem is he's also been poor against sliders, curves and especially change-ups.
Anthony Rizzo has been almost as disappointing as Goldschmidt but with far less scrutiny. In our composite ranking, Goldschmidt was 10th while Rizzo was 20th, that's really not a huge difference. Rizzo has more RBI and a slightly higher average than Goldschmidt, but they're both abashed busts, at least so far. With Rizzo, there's reason to be optimistic. He's not walking nearly as much, but every other indicator is positive. Rizzo's contact rate is in line with career levels as is his hard contact rate. Hits, and homers, will soon be frequenting Wrigley Field.
While some of the reason C.J. Cron is a top-five first baseman is the struggles of others, regular playing time has agreed with the Rays two-hole hitter. I just deleted the sentence, "Cron is likely to fall short of 40 homers, despite cracking 11 through 47 games." Well, I just typed it again, but this time to ask, why can't he? Not everyone slows down. Cron is on target for 38. Not many questioned his raw power. It was inconsistency and a perceived lack of trust from then-manager Mike Scioscia pushing Cron down the ranks. With regular at-bats, he's crushing southpaws while handling righties just fine. This is the perfect recipe for success from a righty swinger. Sure, Cron's HR/FB is higher than normal, but a 20 percent mark isn't so outlandish it's a candidate for automatic regression. Plus, if it does fall back, there's some wriggle room with contact and fly ball rate aiding home run potential. This isn't to say Cron will hit 40 homers, just it's not fair to bark the Pavlovian regression analysis either.
SECOND BASE
You know what's scary? Ozzie Albies has been able to imbibe adult beverages legally for only a little over three and a half months. It's getting hard to preach tempering expectations on young players when Albies is ravishing the curve.
I won't duck it; I had Jose Altuve as the top player on the board, not just second baseman, in the spring. I did so despite recognizing there were several warning signs in his underlying metrics, like inordinate power for such a low hard contact rate and a downward trend in steals. Man, I could have looked like a genius had I gone in that direction. However, because Altuve had smashed the indicators for five seasons, I hypothesized he possesses skills not captured by conventional analytical processes. He still may, but he'll fall short of initial expectations. I still think he owns this ability, my mistake was not accounting for the chance he has been the luckiest hitter on the planet for half a decade and hedging a little. There's a solid chance if Altuve continues to fall short of expectations, he falls precipitously in 2018 drafts, only to recapture some of what's missing this season and be a huge asset. Well, I do think his running will continue to wane.
Scooter Gennett has a cult-like following on Twitter, deservedly so. He's taken last season's success against right-handers up a notch, while adding the ability to hang in versus lefties. It's always felt like his team, both MLB and fantasy, is looking for an upgrade. It looks like the Reds have realized Gennett is a solid asset, not just a platoon piece. It's high time fantasy managers followed suit. Gennett's BABIP may be high, but it's supported by a high line drive and hard hit rate. That is, it's not due regression solely on account of good luck. The underlying factors may regress (fewer liners and less hard contact) but that's a different thing. If someone is looking to sell high on Gennett, I'm buying.
THIRD BASE
The hot corner held truer to form than the other positions. There are still surprises like Christian Villanueva, Matt Davidson and Brian Anderson along with Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon and Kyle Seager registering as disappointments to date.
In an April podcast, Derek VanRiper and I discussed who we preferred long term, Villanueva or Davidson? My argument was for Davidson, contending we know what we'll get from him. He wasn't going to have another three-homer game but I preferred knowing what we'll get, decent power with a spotty average, then work around that. DVR argued while we may know what we're getting with Davidson, is that really enough to be satisfied? Especially in shallower leagues, why not dance with the devil we don't know? If Villanueva turns into a pumpkin, let's hop in the chariot and find another glass cleat. There were also some signs Villanueva had this in him, which ultimately made me tap out and give the round to Derek. A month later, and it looks like a split decision.
SHORTSTOP
Like third base, there's a lot of chalk at shortstop. It was only a couple weeks in that Elvis Andrus fractured his elbow, but he was hitting well and likely would have made the current list. Marcus Semien leads the league in plate appearances, which obviously boosts his counting stats, but so does a .274 average, well above his career mark. The elevated average is due to a high BABIP, fueled by more line drives and grounders as Semien's hard hit rate lines up with his career norm. There's a chance his average regresses, but hitting on top of a surprisingly productive lineup against both righties and lefties will keep Semien's playing time high, and likely fruitful.
A lot was made of Xander Bogaerts early-season success, with the "his wrist is healthy" narrative. While this is obviously the case, this is the expected career path before he was hit by a pitch last May. There's a lot of similarity with Altuve here, as both have outstanding plate coverage, dumping balls into right field with the ability to turn on an inside pitch or a mistake and pull it hard, often a long way. As such, both their hard hit rates are misleading. I've seen a lot of similar notes on Twitter regarding average exit velocity. Some players cluster around their average while others have more variance with higher highs and lower lows. Bogaerts, and Altuve, are classified with the latter.
Please feel free to share any observations you have in the comments.
