Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

As the season is now underway, it's fun (and perhaps productive) to discuss random thoughts and observations. In fantasy baseball, the answer to the ultimate question is always elusive but still worth seeking. I'm not sure that all-encompassing answer is contained below, but hopefully we'll inspire some interactive conversation that can help us achieve the optimal pitching staff. It's worth a shot, so let's go.

Strange things do happen: I mentioned something in the comments of last week's column I don't believe I have ever seen in 30 years of fantasy baseball. Upon closer inspection, it got even more bizarre. On Sunday afternoon, my home league (15-team keeper with deep rosters) team was atop the standings in WHIP at a tidy 1.03, yet was dead last in ERA at a horrid 4.75 (stats over 69.3 innings). Folks, that's not an easy feat. I can honestly say I have never seen that and would have considered it very nearly impossible. Then, at the same time, upon further inspection of the league stats, I found that I was second in home runs with a very respectable 15 about 10 days into the season, yet next to last (14th) in RBIs with 34. What are the odds? The point I'll make here is this, aberrations do occur, especially with a small sample size, so don't pull the chute too soon if your team stumbles briefly.

The Sho Oh Phenomenon: When it was announced Shohei Otani would be coming to the United States, there was quite a buzz, and many fantasy players began to consider him a possible draft day target. Then he struggled in limited action during spring training, and there were even whispers he might be sent to Triple-A Salt Lake City, which saw the ADP bridge-jumpers diving off the bandwagon. Then the season began. He made one serious mistake in his first start, resulting in a three-run homerun. He won the start and otherwise looked very good. We won't get into his offensive fireworks between starts; after all this column is about pitching. However, he made his second start last Sunday against Oakland. He then proceeded to take the cover off his skills for all to see. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He painted the corners with a moving fastball that touched triple digits (while mixing in a 68 mph curveball just for fun). His nasty splitter generated swings and misses two-thirds of the time. So, 91 pitches, one hit, one walk and 12 strikeouts later, the believers, including a fan-filled ballpark in Anaheim, were bedazzled. The Angels plan to send him to the mound once a week, and this Sho Oh Sunday thing could catch on in a BIG way – kind of like a, "having fun at the ol' ballpark" promotion. I have no doubt he will have off days at some point, but the takeaway for fantasy owners is simply, believe in your own scouting notes. Talent will have its day.

The "Do No Harm" principle: Regular readers know I have mentioned this principle many times. The impact of sub-par performance, injuries and the need to win now can be devastating for actual MLB teams and your fantasy squad. Just like you, they may have to replace a regular starter, and their goal will be (at least) to, "do no harm" while that regular starter is out of action. It's very unlikely that you'll be able to stack a rotation with nothing but healthy, top of the rotation talent, but you have to be careful when filling those back-of-the-rotation slots, and always look to upgrade that spot. More so than with hitters, a bad fill-in pitcher can be disastrous. In a very short time, they can destroy your WHIP and ERA for virtually the entire season. So, remember, an upgrade helps in two ways – you get the benefit of the numbers posted by the better pitcher, andyou get the benefit of not having to absorb the ugly numbers provided by the lesser guy. A top prospect can be appealing, but is the kid ready? These days, pitchers are frequently rushed to the majors, and while they may briefly enjoy some success while hitters learn their strengths and weaknesses, the under-developed aspects of their game usually surfaces fairly soon. Be objective when evaluating kids, and note something that might seem a bit odd, teams are usually more conservative in promoting the best arms.

Should I drop this guy to add that guy: This may (understandably) be the most frequently asked question here in the Musings, and I always enjoy discussing the pros and cons of a potential pick-up. As I just said, you should alway look to improve, especially the bottom slots in your rotation. The trick is, fully asking the whole question – "Should I drop this guy to add this guy to my lineup right now," or "Should I drop this guy from my bench to add this guy in hopes of him eventually helping me." The answers will usually be different. It depends on upside or ceiling. If the guy you want to pick up has limited upside, he probably needs to replace someone with even less in your lineup right now. Stashing a pitcher who can't take a rotation spot now, and is unlikely to do so in the future, doesn't really help you. However, if you have a spot on your bench, and a pitcher who has been hurt or is underperforming– as he perhaps fights some mechanical issues – becomes available, adding him could be very prudent. Looking to improve doesn't always mean today; it could be next week or next month. Just remember, moves should improve your starting lineup at some point. Have a plan.

Put him away: When scouting a pitcher, there's one thing that makes me wary of recommending him. You may not be aware that batters have compiled a truly anemic .176 batting average when hitting with two strikes. I suppose it's not all that surprising to realize that pitchers have the advantage when hitters are forced to adopt a defensive approach at the plate, especially if down in the count, but what do you make of a pitcher who frequently allows hits after getting that second strike? I'm not talking about a random flare single when the batter flicks his bat at a pitch on the black and lobs the ball just over the outstretched glove of the shortstop. I'm talking about laser shots into the gaps or majestic home runs into the second deck. Pitchers don't find themselves in favorable situations so often that they can afford to waste them. If your guy is making you nervous with his inability to easily put hitters away, even if some of those rockets miraculously find a glove, he's probably somebody I'd suggest you avoid. This is one of those things I watch for that doesn't always appear in the box score.

The strikeout is king. Long live the whiff: Hitting home runs has been the glory event, probably since baseball was invented, however true pitching junkies, raises my hand, will tell you a corkscrew strikeout is a thing of unparalleled beauty. The more the hitter is fooled, the giddier we get. Today's obsession with exit velocity, launch angle, feet travelled and majestic poses has only made the home run more popular than ever. With plenty of batting practice pitchers in MLB rotations, opportunities abound, so to some extent, stolen bases and bunts are becoming dinosaurs. A side effect of hitters coming out of their shoes on every swing has been an increase in strikeouts. It's hard to adjust from game to game, swinging for it all against the flatliners, then taking a more judicious approach against more competent pitchers. Fantasy owners have needed to adjust as well. If a pitcher can't at least approach an average of a strikeout per inning, he will almost always fall into the back half of your rotation. Look at K/9 hard.

There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, whom to watch, and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating pitching choices for our fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Pirates' Jameson Taillon followed up a solid first start of the year with a masterful encore as he tossed his first complete game shutout against the Reds earlier this week. He struck out a modest seven, but he was literally in command all the way, still consistently hitting his spots in the eighth and ninth innings.

• I'm a bit concerned with his walk rate, but the White Sox' Reynaldo Lopez has been stingy with the hits so far in two starts. His velocity has jumped a couple of ticks so he could be a useful fantasy starter on a young, hungry team if he begins throwing more strikes. I'm not jumping on board yet, but I am watching.

• I wasn't too excited about Phillies' right-hander Nick Pivetta last season, but I am reassessing. He relied too heavily on his fastball and didn't show much command in 2017 but he has looked better, albeit against Miami and Cincinnati, using more off-speed stuff. We'll see if he can maintain that.

• Right now, Kansas City's Jakob Junis is showing us what can happen when a finesse pitcher gets in a groove, and does an exceptional job of spotting all his pitches. He's a decent back-of-the-rotation option, but, be aware, getting a bit out of synch can be dangerous when you don't have the stuff to overcome mistakes.

• A couple of late arrivals to the 2018 season should be returning soon. First on the list is San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija, who suffered a strained pectoral near the end of spring training. He'll pitch in a rehab game this weekend and could be activated next week. I look for a bounce-back season from him.

• After not signing with the Orioles until late in March, Alex Cobb is expected to make his 2018 debut on Saturday. He has been pitching in simulated and extended spring training games, including a six-inning, 93-pitch effort last time out. He draws a tough Boston for his first start.
  

In Pittsburgh, Felipe Rivero has officially changed his name to Felipe Vazquez. There is no impact on his fantasy value, but owners should be aware. With Corey Knebel expected to miss at least six weeks with a hamstring strain, the Brewers appear to be shuffling their bullpen a bit. I was surprised to see Matt Albers in the ninth Monday night (he blew the save, but logged a win, then converted a save Wednesday) but the team has indicated they would like to preserve the versatility of Josh Hader, and I still believe Jacob Barnes could become the primary closer. The Astros haven't used Ken Giles exclusively in save situations – Brad Peacock picked up a save recently, and appears to be the primary caddie – but the usage looks like just a plan to avoid overtaxing Giles. There have been whispers that Giles will share the job. I have my doubts (if Giles gets it done), but monitor the situation. Greg Holland has joined the Cardinals, but his first outing was pretty rocky. He walked four, including the winning run, while retiring just one batter. Given his lack of prep time before signing with St. Louis, the command issues aren't too surprising, so look for things to improve as he rounds into game shape. The Rays' closer, Alex Colome, has been very shaky, but there just aren't many viable options on that roster I can see. It was scary in week one, but it appears Kenley Jansen is back on track.