Rowdy Tellez
24-Year-Old First Baseman1B
2019 Fantasy Outlook
While Yankee fans were enjoying Luke Voit and Rays fans enjoyed Ji-Man Choi, Jays fans got a pleasant surprise with their own September slugger. Tellez has been a solid hitter throughout his minor-league career, with above-average power and defensive limitations due to his size, but he stalled out a bit at Triple-A. Nobody could have predicted the small-sample offensive explosion he had last season with the big club (13 extra-base hits in 73 PA). Statcast did not support his September production, as his xwOBA was 80 points below his actual mark. In plain English -- the quality of his contact was not as good as the actual outcomes of his at-bats. Additionally, his 28.8 K% and 2.7 BB% in that tiny sample suggest major regression was coming. Tellez should head back to Triple-A with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales on the big-league roster. He may get another chance in 2019, but should not be expected to recapture last year's brief success. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed with the Blue Jays in July of 2013.
Smashes two home runs
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 25, 2019
Tellez went 2-for-4 with two solo home runs and two runs in a 3-2 victory against the Orioles on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
With his pair of long balls, Tellez has reached the 20-homer plateau during his rookie season. Tellez spent time in the minors during July and August, but during those two months, he also hit just one home run in 18 games. In September, Tellez has six homers, which is his most for any month this year. He is batting .226 with 21 home runs, 53 RBI, 48 runs and one steal in 358 at-bats this season.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
6
31
14
16
4
3
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
7
4
8
6
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+4%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+18%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+270%
OPS vs RHP
2017
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .755 149 15 6 25 1 .244 .295 .459
Since 2017vs Right .782 333 44 19 43 0 .239 .300 .482
2019vs Left .831 126 13 6 23 1 .270 .317 .513
2019vs Right .702 283 36 15 31 0 .208 .283 .420
2018vs Left .324 23 2 0 2 0 .100 .174 .150
2018vs Right 1.200 50 8 4 12 0 .400 .400 .800
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+3%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+66%
OPS at Home
2017
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .785 256 30 15 42 0 .233 .289 .496
Since 2017Away .761 226 29 10 26 1 .250 .310 .451
2019Home .713 213 24 12 32 0 .210 .272 .441
2019Away .773 196 25 9 22 1 .246 .316 .457
2018Home 1.128 43 6 3 10 0 .341 .372 .756
2018Away .680 30 4 1 4 0 .276 .267 .414
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Rowdy Tellez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.25
 
BB Rate
7.1%
 
K Rate
28.4%
 
BABIP
.267
 
ISO
.222
 
AVG
.227
 
OBP
.293
 
SLG
.449
 
OPS
.742
 
wOBA
.321
 
Exit Velocity
90.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
41.9%
 
Barrels/PA
8.1%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
The subject of much doubt as he raked at each stop in the lower levels, Tellez, a 30th-round pick in 2013, always answered the bell. That is, until he got to Triple-A. Scouts who saw Tellez remarked on how it seemed like he wasn't getting good breaks on balls in play, and his .264 BABIP bears that out. However, that doesn't explain why he hit just six home runs in 122 games en route to a .110 ISO -- easily the worst mark of his career. His walk rate (9.4 percent) and his strikeout rate (18.8 percent) were fine. Triple-A pitching may have just vexed him -- sometimes guys hit a wall as they climb through the ranks. Entering his age-23 season, it's possible he can make some adjustments and earn a big-league promotion. However, with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales around, he not only needs to show significant improvement before getting called up, but would likely need an injury to open up a spot for him.
Few first base prospects can match Tellez's excellent contact skills (17.9 percent strikeout rate) and patience (12.3 percent walk rate) while also projecting to bring a plus hit tool and plus power to the equation. There is that tiny sliver of doubt that he will hit for enough power to profile as an above average fantasy first baseman, as this marked his first season with 20-plus home runs, but a future home in the American League East should help matters. It will be worth monitoring his ability to hit lefties as he moves up the ranks. He hit .264/.345/.456 in 125 at-bats against southpaws at Double-A, which isn't bad, but it illustrates a notable platoon split. The bat is good enough against righties that a Matt Adams-esque career is the worst-case scenario. The Blue Jays kept him at Double-A all season so he likely won't reach the majors until late 2017, at the earliest.
He may have been a 30th round pick, but Tellez has quickly shot up through the team’s prospect rankings and is now a top-10 prospect in the organization. At just 20 years old, he stands an imposing 6-foot-4, 245 pounds and is a left-handed masher, picture perfect for Rogers Centre one day. He split his season between Low-A Lansing and High-A Dunedin, collectively hitting for a .289/.347/.454 slash line with 14 home runs and 77 RBI. He played particularly well when he moved up to Dunedin, hitting for a .811 OPS and seven home runs in 35 games. Tellez plays first base by necessity and doesn’t really have any speed either defensively or on the basepaths. He may start the season back at High-A Dunedin, but advance to Double-A by midsummer.
More Fantasy News
Out Saturday
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 21, 2019
Tellez is not in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting Tuesday
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 17, 2019
Tellez will sit for Tuesday's game in Baltimore.
ANALYSIS
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Sits against Paxton
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 14, 2019
Tellez is not in Saturday's lineup against the Yankees, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Homers in second straight game
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 4, 2019
Tellez went 1-for-4 with a solo home run Tuesday in the Blue Jays' 7-2 loss to the Braves.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting Monday
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 2, 2019
Tellez is not in the lineup Monday against Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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