Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Boston Red Sox
10-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 4/28/2019
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Returning from his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi posted his lowest ERA since 2013 while churning out several career bests, including an 8.2 K/9, 4.4 BB% and 10.7% swinging-strike rate. Earlier in his career, the right-hander failed to pair Ks with high-end velocity, but he tapped into a greater strikeout punch in 2018 as the Rays helped him embrace his cutter and he started throwing four-seamers higher in the zone. Plus, he synced up his release points for better tunneling. Even after his pristine 1.61 postseason ERA, the 29-year-old's fantasy draft price won't likely climb too much due to concerns with season-long durability. He returned to the Red Sox on a four-year, $67.5 million deal and projects to open the season as the team's No. 3 starter. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $67.5 million contract with the Red Sox in December of 2018.
May require surgery
PBoston Red Sox
April 20, 2019
Eovaldi will visit a doctor Monday to determine whether he needs surgery on his right elbow, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.
Eovaldi has a loose body in his elbow which is reportedly in a bad place, preventing the pitcher from stretching his arm out. Eovaldi missed two months due to arthroscopic surgery for the same issue last season, so he could miss a lengthy period if surgery is required.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
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BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .261 266 51 18 63 9 3 11
Since 2017vs Right .238 282 66 13 63 14 0 9
2019vs Left .313 37 4 3 10 0 0 4
2019vs Right .234 56 12 8 11 4 0 2
2018vs Left .254 229 47 15 53 9 3 7
2018vs Right .239 226 54 5 52 10 0 7
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
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Since 2017Home 2.72 0.98 53.0 4 1 0 9.0 1.7 1.0
Since 2017Away 5.13 1.33 79.0 2 6 0 7.3 2.4 1.6
2019Home 9.00 2.00 5.0 0 0 0 7.2 7.2 3.6
2019Away 5.06 1.38 16.0 0 0 0 6.8 3.9 2.3
2018Home 2.06 0.88 48.0 4 1 0 9.2 1.1 0.8
2018Away 5.14 1.32 63.0 2 6 0 7.4 2.0 1.4
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Nathan Eovaldi compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
97.1 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Tommy John surgery in August of 2016 knocked Eovaldi out for the entirety of 2017. He did make a couple rehab appearances late in the year in the International League championship series, putting him on track to compete for a spot in the Rays' rotation in spring training. Any pitcher coming back from reconstructive elbow surgery is an unknown, but that's especially true with Eovaldi, whose calling card has always been premium velocity. He hadn't been able to generate many whiffs before going down with the injury despite the impressive velo -- Eovaldi has never posted a K/9 over 7.0 at the big-league level. Eovaldi will need to not only return to form, but find a new level to his game, in order to become a trustworthy option in standard fantasy leagues. That seems unlikely coming off TJS considering many pitchers struggle with control and command in their first year back.
After a rough first half of the season, Eovaldi moved to the bullpen for a brief period in July. He found a good deal of success in the new role, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings, but that success was short lived. He was diagnosed a partially torn UCL and fully torn flexor tendon in his right arm in August, which required season-ending Tommy John surgery. As a result, Eovaldi will miss the entirety of the 2017 season. He was non-tendered by the Yankees in the offseason, and given his lackluster results as a starter so far in his career, it seems like he'll move to the bullpen full-time once he's healthy if the Rays decide to hang onto him for another season.
Eovaldi improved in 2015, but it didn’t really show up in his results. Actually, it kind of did as he somehow posted a 14-3 record, but no one is looking at his ERA or WHIP and thinking that he took steps forward. The big change was the development of his splitter, which helped him neutralize lefties over the second half. Through his first 13 starts he had a 5.12 ERA, due in large part to the fact that lefties mangled him for a 1.008 OPS. In his final 14 starts, he had a 3.43 ERA and cut that lefty OPS down to .587 as the splitter turned into a weapon and was key to a 56 percent groundball rate. Unfortunately, his season ended in early September with elbow concerns, but with health this is still a budding profile primed for a surge: insane velocity, a quality breaking ball, and now a way to stifle lefties. He doesn’t allow homers, he’s gotten his walks in check the last two years, and he has strikeout upside. Buy.
An up-and-down ride in 2014 saw Eovaldi on the verge of a breakout campaign before an increased workload appeared to wear on him down the stretch. Eovaldi tossed a career-high 199.2 innings pitched, but his September struggles (0-4, 5.53 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) dragged his overall line to a mediocre 4.37 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 4-16 record. The 25-year-old right-handed hurler improved his control in 2014, slicing his walk rate down to just 5.0% after posting a 8.9 BB% in the previous year. Still, Eovaldi was unable to translate his powerful, upper-90s fastball into a significant strikeout total. A career-best 142:43 K:BB ratio that translated a solid 3.37 FIP presents plenty of reason for optimism as Eovaldi looks to break through 200-inning threshold in 2015. He'll have less margin for error this time around after being traded to the Yankees in December.
After missing the first two-and-a-half months of the season with a shoulder injury, Eovaldi cobbled together a solid campaign for Miami, tossing 106.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Eovaldi works primarily off of his 96-mph fastball, mixing in a two-seamer, slider, curveball and the occasional changeup. His strikeout totals are regularly underwhelming despite the plus velocity, but he did an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard last season, allowing just seven home runs in 18 starts. Entering his age-24 season, there is plenty of reason to think that Eovaldi still has room to grow, but unless he can pick up that strikeout rate, he figures to be little more than a middle-of-the-road option.
After a short stint in the big leagues in 2011, Eovaldi got his first real chance to be a major league starter in 2012 with the Dodgers, replacing an injured Ted Lilly in the starting rotation in late May. He posted medicore results including a 4.15 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his first 56.1 innings pitched before being shipped to Miami in the Hanley Ramirez trade. Eovaldi showed flashes over the second half with the Marlins, but struggled with his command to the tune of a 44:27 K:BB that accompanied a 4.43 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for his new club. Working with a nice 94 mph fastball, Eovaldi will need to improve on the 3.5 BB/9 that he posted last season if he is to find success in the middle of the Marlins' rotation in 2013.
It was a breakout season of sorts for Eovaldi in 2011, as after 103 Double-A innings (2.62 ERA, 8.65 K/9IP), injuries led to his big league debut in August. He fared well in five of his six starts, ultimately posting a 3.63 ERA to go with a below-average 23:20 K:BB in 34.2 innings. With the Dodgers having filled out their rotation in free agency this winter, Eovaldi will open the season in the minors, but he's on the short list once an injury strikes.
Contract purchased by the Dodgers in August 2011.
More Fantasy News
Heads to IL with elbow issue
PBoston Red Sox
April 20, 2019
The Red Sox placed Eovaldi on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a loose body in his right elbow.
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No decision in quality start
PBoston Red Sox
April 17, 2019
Eovaldi allowed one unearned run on three hits and one walk over six innings during Wednesday's loss to the Yankees. He had six strikeouts but did not factor in the decision.
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Surrenders five earned
PBoston Red Sox
April 11, 2019
Eovaldi allowed five earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out four across five innings Thursday against the Blue Jays. He did not factor into the decision.
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Inefficient in second start
PBoston Red Sox
April 4, 2019
Eovaldi gave up three runs on four hits with four walks while striking out three though five innings in a no-decision against the Athletics on Wednesday.
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Yields three homers
PBoston Red Sox
March 29, 2019
Eovaldi allowed six runs on eight hits, including three home runs, and two walks over five innings while striking out three during a no-decision against the Mariners on Friday.
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