Willy Adames

Fantasy managers and Rays fans were well aware of the split personalities of Home Willy and Road Willy heading into 2021. The shortstop mashed on the road but struggled to hit at home while complaining about the lights at Tropicana Field. The late-May trade to Milwaukee freed Road Willy into full-time masher as he hit .285/.366/.521 after the trade with 20 homers, 61 runs and 58 RBI while missing some time late in the season on the injury list. Now Adames will enjoy a full season in his new comfy home in a division with no less than three teams in rebuild mode in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Cincinnati. There were those who thought Adames had a chance at NL MVP before he went down with his injury, and he is absolutely in that conversation to begin 2022. In addition to the favorable conditions he now enjoys in his home park, he has a decent surrounding cast and will play an imbalanced schedule against projected second-division clubs.

At 25 years old, Adames already has more than 1,100 PA under his belt at the major-league level. Known more for his glove at shortstop, Adames seemed to be making major strides at the plate in 2020 only to lose a lot of that steam in the playoffs. He was 37% better than league average by wRC+ during the regular season, but he also struck out 36.1% of the time and those swing-and-miss issues carried over to the postseason (25 strikeouts in 59 at-bats). Statcast paints a pretty grim picture when it comes to expected stats, and Adames' whiff rate on offspeed pitches stands out as an obvious red flag. We still like the talent and pedigree, but complicating matters is the fact that Wander Franco, the top prospect in baseball, is breathing down his neck. Adames' defense remains a plus and it's not out of the question that Franco could break in at second base and push Brandon Lowe to the outfield full time.

There was a time when .254 with 20 homers and four steals from a shortstop would be envied. Now, the position is the infield's strongest. Adames is still just 24 years and showing signs of improvement, despite what appears to be a downturn from his rookie campaign. Adames doesn't have an elite ceiling, but he can elevate up the ranks. His contact, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity all increased during his sophomore season; the results just don't reflect the gains. Adames' xwOBA in 2018 was .293 while it was .315 last season, illustrating the better skills, though that mark is still tepid compared to other shortstops. Adames' perceived step back creates a buying opportunity for a cheap middle infielder with breakout potential, including steals as his sprint speed is well above average. Plus, he's the rare Tampa position player in the lineup nearly every day thanks to his stellar defense.

Stop us if you have heard this story before: prospect crushes Triple-A pitching while fans and fantasy players pine for his promotion. Player is promoted, has early success, but then goes into a huge slump. Prospect is demoted, comes back with a new mindset, and eventually reaches the levels of success everyone hoped he would immediately enjoy. Blake Snell did that in 2017 and Adames did that in 2018. He hit .224/.227/.329 with a 34% strikeout rate before he was demoted in July, but returned to hit .305/.383/.435 over the rest of the season with a 27% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate. The power will come as he continues to physically mature as he is still just 23 years old. He will hit 20 homers in a season before he steals 10 bases, and that could happen in 2019. Adames is not going to be a superstar, but he will be a better-than-average offensive shortstop for the foreseeable future.

There may not be a better example in the minors of the difference between game power and raw power. Adames has never hit more than 11 home runs in a season and his career-high ISO is .159. However, he is one of the strongest shortstops in pro ball and has plus raw power. As he grows more comfortable and receives more upper-level instruction, he will start to access that power more in games, and when he does, his stock will explode. His best current offensive skill is his ability to work the count and get on base at a high clip, posting walk rates over 11 percent ever since joining the Rays in 2014. This pairs nicely with his above-average hit tool, and should eventually allow him to hit near the top of a big-league lineup. Adames will chip in a handful of steals, but he is not a burner. Some have questioned whether he would stick at shortstop long term, but he silenced the doubters in 2017, and should take over as the Rays' shortstop of the future early this season.

The 21-year-old enjoyed a strong year at Double-A Montgomery, slashing .274/.366/.409 with career highs in homers, walks and stolen bases. His numbers were up across the board from his 2015 campaign at High-A Charlotte, and he now looks to take the next step at Triple-A Durham in the coming season. Part of his improvement was in the area of plate discipline, as he lowered his strikeout rate almost a full six percentage points to 21.3 percent. Adames was added to the Rays' 40-man roster on Nov. 18, and if he continues to thrive in Triple-A, he could potentially see the field with the big league club before the end of the 2017 campaign. Based on his body of work to date, Adames projects as an excellent multi-category fantasy producer whenever he does settle in with the Rays for good.

Adames came to Tampa Bay in the David Price deal and is a very intriguing prospect, despite what the stats have been thus far. He will open the season in Double-A Montgomery as a 20-year-old, making him one of the youngest players in the league at a critical position. With Daniel Robertson in front of him, the Rays have no reason to rush him to the majors, but of the two, it is likely Adames that will stick at shortstop while Robertson goes to second base. The offense should begin to look better as he fills out physically. The recent acquisition of Brad Miller under a few more years of player control almost ensures Adames won’t be seen until 2018.

Adames was the third piece the Rays received in the David Price deal, and unlike Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin, Adames is several years away from the big leagues. However, he has the potential to be the best player of the three, especially if he can stick up the middle. A bat-first shortstop, Adames spent his entire age-18 season at the Low-A affiliates of the Tigers and the Rays, compiling a .271/.353/.429 slash line with eight home runs and six steals in 514 plate appearances. For an 18-year-old to do that in a full season league suggests he is advanced enough with the stick to move fast if his defense does not hold him back. An optimistic ETA would be late 2016, with a more likely debut in the summer of 2017. Still, in dynasty leagues where each team gets 10 minor league keepers, Adames needs to be owned based on his potential production in power and batting average, which should play even if he gets moved to third base.