This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
This year, I'm refining my lineup-building approach for DFS, and thinking more in terms of 50/50s and single-entry tournaments, than big-field GPPs. Without the bankroll to play hundreds of lineups each day, it's quality over quantity, which means reducing my chances of the life-changing payout, but increasing my overall chances of success throughout a full season.One of the changes I'm making to my lineup-building process is taking on a more granular approach to splits and park factors. In previous seasons, I believe I was too fixated on maxing out platoon advantages, effectively removing players with great matchups simply because they didn't have a lefty-righty, or righty-lefty spot against the opposing starting pitcher.
Additionally, I'm looking even more closely at park factors for each starting pitcher on the board, while seeking out particularly good and bad fits based on each pitcher's tendencies.
With the pitching stats in the leaderboard below, all data is compiled since the start of the 2016 season.
Here's my breakdown of the slate for Tuesday, April 25th.
The Arms
| Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | SwStr% | GB% | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | DK | FD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 177.1 | 31.4% | 2.0% | 29.4% | 14.8% | 48.5% | 0.61 | 1.83 | 1.94 | $14,300 | $12,700 |
| Danny Duffy | KCR | 207.0 | 25.2% | 6.2% | 18.9% | 13.1% | 37.3% | 1.26 | 3.22 | 3.78 | $10,400 | $9,700 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 146.0 | 27.6% | 8.9% | 18.7% | 11.0% | 36.0% | 1.54 | 4.44 | 4.18 | $9,300 | $7,500 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 246.2 | 21.2% | 3.7% | 17.5% | 8.5% | 43.3% | 1.02 | 3.36 | 3.49 | $9,600 | $9,300 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 91 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 17.0% | 9.6% | 46.0% | 1.48 | 5.44 | 4.18 | $8,300 | $8,600 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 206.0 | 22.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 9.7% | 48.9% | 0.83 | 2.45 | 3.41 | $10,200 | $8,500 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 211.0 | 21.6% | 6.1% | 15.5% | 10.1% | 38.2% | 1.02 | 3.24 | 3.74 | $10,000 | $8,500 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 62.1 | 23.5% | 8.0% | 15.5% | 8.7% | 54.1% | 0.43 | 3.18 | 2.87 | $7,000 | $7,700 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 112.0 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 42.5% | 0.80 | 3.46 | 3.47 | $5,300 | $6,300 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 139.1 | 18.8% | 4.6% | 14.2% | 9.0% | 39.9% | 1.55 | 4.84 | 4.45 | $7,600 | $8,400 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 200.0 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 34.2% | 1.17 | 3.38 | 4.10 | $8,800 | $8,300 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 185 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 8.8% | 47.4% | 1.31 | 5.01 | 4.32 | $6,900 | $8,100 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 183.0 | 19.4% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 8.3% | 45.3% | 1.13 | 4.43 | 3.99 | $6,600 | $6,700 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 209.1 | 20.0% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 42.3% | 0.86 | 3.01 | 3.67 | $7,100 | $8,500 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 139.0 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 45.4% | 0.78 | 4.01 | 3.58 | $8,500 | $8,800 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 156.2 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 45.3% | 1.03 | 4.77 | 3.92 | $6,800 | $7,700 |
| JC Ramirez | LAA | 94.0 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 53.6% | 1.34 | 4.69 | 4.46 | $4,200 | $5,600 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 99.2 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 46.8% | 1.17 | 3.61 | 4.19 | $6,000 | $6,500 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 105.1 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 51.9% | 1.45 | 3.67 | 4.71 | $4,400 | $6,400 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 178.0 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 50.6% | 1.21 | 3.79 | 4.59 | $9,500 | $9,000 |
| G. Marquez | COL | 20.2 | 15.3% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 54.9% | 0.87 | 5.23 | 4.26 | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 177.2 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 53.2% | 1.32 | 4.91 | 4.71 | $5,000 | $7,800 |
| J. Zimmermann | DET | 122 | 14.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 40.1% | 1.11 | 5.02 | 4.35 | $6,400 | $7,700 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 143.1 | 18.5% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 46.7% | 1.19 | 5.02 | 4.77 | $5,400 | $6,100 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 94.1 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 65.6% | 0.76 | 3.24 | 4.21 | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| Ty Blach | SFG | 22.2 | 14.1% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 52.5% | 0.40 | 1.99 | 3.80 | $5,600 | $5,500 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 64.1 | 13.2% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 45.6% | 1.26 | 5.18 | 4.96 | $5,500 | $7,400 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 10.1 | 4.3% | 10.6% | -6.4% | 5.7% | 50.0% | 2.61 | 7.84 | 7.76 | $4,300 | $5,900 |
In cash, it's extremely difficult for me to consider anything other than Kershaw, regardless of whether you're building a lineup on FanDuel or DraftKings.
On both sites, Danny Duffy is the second-most expensive arm on the board. My concern with Duffy is that he's shown a tendency, even when he pitches well otherwise, to get hurt by the long ball. Since the start of last season, Duffy's home-run rate (1.26 HR/9) is right in line with that of Patrick Corbin (1.32), Wade Miley (1.31) and JC Ramirez (1.34). Only five of today's 28 starters have a home-run rate against righties higher than Duffy's (1.43 HR/9) during that span. Moreover, Guaranteed Rate Field (The Cell) boosts right-handed home runs by seven percent, while Duffy's home park, Kauffman Stadium, reduces right-handed home runs by 19 percent.
With big righty bats in Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier anchoring the lineup, Duffy's matchup is deceptively difficult against an otherwise anemic White Sox offense.
Vince Velasquez truthers should build around him on FanDuel, where he's $1,800 cheaper than he is on DraftKings today ($9,300). After turning things around in his last start against the Mets, he'll look to take another step forward against a Marlins squad that ranks 12th in K% against right-handed pitching (22.4%) and tied for 14th in wOBA v. righties (.318).
Rick Porcello didn't have the strikeout upside necessary to justify a $9,000+ price tag on both sites today anyway, but the Yankees-Red Sox matchup was postponed for Tuesday.
While Severino's game was rained out, Boston's ability to limit whiffs, paired with Severino's ugly reverse splits include a 1.93 HR/9 against righties since the start of last season, made him more risky at Fenway than the typical right-handed starter anyway.
Julio Teheran and Kyle Hendricks are interesting as second-tier considerations. Of the duo, I trust Teheran the most, as the Mets are striking out 22.5% of the time against righties, while the Pirates are ranked 29th at 16.9%. Further, the Mets have a .273 wOBA this season against righties, while only the Royals and White Sox have been worse.
When you consider the difference in price, choosing between Teheran and Robert Gsellman is actually pretty difficult. Gsellman has damaged the ratios of season-long owners over his first three starts, but his mix of strikeout rate and groundball-inducing ability play well since he offers upside with very limited blow-up potential.
One pitfall of looking mostly at last season's data is the potential to overlook Michael Wacha. Wacha's swinging-strike rate has surged to 12.3%, leading to a spike in strikeouts, while that skills shift paired with his ability to induce weaker contact thus far (21.6% hard hit rate) has translated to a 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through three starts. Most importantly, he gets a Toronto lineup at home, which is currently 27th in wOBA against righties (.276), and is without Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki. Wacha is my preferred GPP option on FanDuel, and a viable second starter on DraftKings tonight.
If Joe Ross were at home against Colorado, he would cost more, and I would consider paying that increased price. Instead, he's on the road in Coors, and I'll be looking for some exposure against him and Rockies starter German Marquez.
The Bats
Catcher
Cameron Rupp has pounded lefties since the start of last season (.926 OPS), putting him near the top of the list tonight as the pool of catchers is slightly weaker than usual. With Philadelphia having some weather concerns looming, Yadier Molina is also in play with a home start against the Jays and Marco Estrada, while red-hot Padres catcher Austin Hedges should be back in the fold for San Diego against D-backs lefty Patrick Corbin.
First Base
Weather permitting, getting lefty exposure against Erasmo Ramirez at Camden Yards is a priority. Chris Davis is only $3,300 on FanDuel ($4,700 on DraftKings) and is one of the best chalk options on the board. As per usual, there are plenty of options at each price point, with Joey Votto and Eric Thames at the top thanks to Scott Feldman and Zach Davies having the ball at Miller Park, Wil Myers getting a park boost against Corbin at Chase Field, Eric Hosmer getting a crack at Dylan Covey in Chicago, and Tommy Joseph hitting fifth against Wei-Yin Chen and the Marlins tonight.
Second Base
At least on FanDuel, DJ LeMahieu is very affordable ($3,500) against Joe Ross. If Whit Merrifield continues to lead off for the Royals, he's a viable punt option for those with Kershaw lineups scrambling to cut costs somewhere. With the rainout in Boston, two good options -- Dustin Pedroia and Starlin Castro -- are no longer in play. Neil Walker is a useful option for the Mets if you're not using Teheran, as he's affordable on both sites.
Third Base
Eric Thames' start to the season has overshadowed the contributions of Shaw to this point. Shaw is still priced at a reasonable $3,600, which considering the way Miller Park boosts left-handed homers, is a bargain against Feldman and the Reds. At the same price on FanDuel, Anthony Rendon can be used at Coors, though he's $1,400 more expensive on DraftKings. Mike Moustakas offers another affordable access point to the Dylan Covey experience in Chicago, Evan Longoria gets a park boost and a nice matchup against Wade Miley at Camden Yards, and Maikel Franco is sneaky cheap ($3,000) against Chen at home.
Shortstop
Like catcher, shortstop is woefully thin tonight. Digging around through the matchups left me with two non-Coors options: Asdrubal Cabrera against Julio Teheran, and switch-hitter Jorge Polanco on the road in Texas. Put simply, I don't trust Andrew Cashner at all, and I think hitters from the left side can exploit that matchup even more effectively than righties can. I'm not as interested in loading up hitters against Clayton Richard as others may be, but Chris Owings' $2,800 price tag on FanDuel makes him interesting with the limited alternatives available at the position tonight. Richards' heavy groundball tendencies make him somewhat less susceptible to a complete melt-down than other Padres starters taking the ball at Chase Field this week.
Outfield
With the aforementioned park boost for the Padres in Arizona this week, Hunter Renfroe also gets a righty-lefty spot against Corbin at a nice price ($2,800 FD/$3,600 DK). Seth Smith is another way to get exposure to Erasmo in Baltimore if Chris Davis is too chalky and/or too expensive for your liking. Max Kepler is another left-handed option positioned with a nice spot against Cashner in Arlington on Tuesday. I'm also considering Lorenzo Cain in Chicago against Covey, Steven Souza with a righty-lefty matchup against Miley (plus a park boost) if the weather holds up, and Aaron Altherr against Chen in Philadelphia.
Finally, Angels starter JC Ramirez has a generous 1.65 HR/9 against right-handed hitters since the start of last season. Khris Davis is very affordable on both sites and has the raw power necessary to cash in on a deceptively good matchup.
Good luck tonight!
