This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
Given the sheer volume of promotions we're seeing right now, and the compacted nature of the schedule, it's getting increasingly difficult in redraft leagues to justify using a bench spot on a prospect who isn't actually contributing. Still, there may be one or two worth giving just a little more leeway to if you have the roster space. Let's take a look at the prospect names worth noting.
Already Up
Mize may have already made his big-league debut by the time you read this. Here's how I finished his outlook for the magazine over the winter: "We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation." Essentially, my biggest concern with Mize is how well his stuff will hold up over a 160-180 inning season. He doesn't get a chance to pass that test this season, which could be a major boon in redraft leagues and could lead to him being overvalued in dynasty and redraft heading into 2021. Despite his struggles in eight MLB innings, I still prefer Spencer Howard in dynasty and I think it's close for 2020 value. That means I won't be paying up for Mize in the NFBC (although I acknowledge it's a buy that could pay off) and will instead be looking to add Howard after he is inevitably dropped in some leagues.
Given the sheer volume of promotions we're seeing right now, and the compacted nature of the schedule, it's getting increasingly difficult in redraft leagues to justify using a bench spot on a prospect who isn't actually contributing. Still, there may be one or two worth giving just a little more leeway to if you have the roster space. Let's take a look at the prospect names worth noting.
Already Up
Mize may have already made his big-league debut by the time you read this. Here's how I finished his outlook for the magazine over the winter: "We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation." Essentially, my biggest concern with Mize is how well his stuff will hold up over a 160-180 inning season. He doesn't get a chance to pass that test this season, which could be a major boon in redraft leagues and could lead to him being overvalued in dynasty and redraft heading into 2021. Despite his struggles in eight MLB innings, I still prefer Spencer Howard in dynasty and I think it's close for 2020 value. That means I won't be paying up for Mize in the NFBC (although I acknowledge it's a buy that could pay off) and will instead be looking to add Howard after he is inevitably dropped in some leagues.
Bohm's plate skills have been excellent thus far. The reason I was lower than most on Bohm is that I think his game power is overrated, at least as long as he is making such a point of hitting for average and getting on base at a high clip. He will be a 20-plus homer guy with this approach, but I have my doubts about him being a 30-homer guy without worsening his approach. Either way, it's been a great start to his big-league career.
Skubal had a rough MLB debut, but that shouldn't come as a surprise and it shouldn't change the way he is viewed long term. He has a devastating fastball from the left side, but Tuesday's start came against a Chicago lineup where all the best hitters hit from the right side, which limited his deceptiveness. I've compared his fastball to that of Josh Hader, and like Hader, his ability to make it as a successful big-league starter will come down to his secondary pitches and his command. He has a better starter's frame than Hader (an extra 30 pounds on his 6-3 frame), but he is not a finished product.
The Braves are shorthanded enough in the short term that I expect Pache to play a decent amount over the next week or two. He has always been a very tough prospect for me to rank for dynasty leagues because there is no denying he will have a long big-league career due to his 80-grade center field defense, but I would expect something like a .265 AVG, .320 OBP, 20-25 HR and 7-12 SB during his peak years while hitting near the bottom of the lineup. That's a useful player in most formats, but he may never be a top-150 pick in redraft leagues. His defense and 40-man status is what gave him the edge over Drew Waters for this promotion. Waters is a good defender too, but not Gold Glove caliber like Pache.
I love Garcia's long-term hit tool projection, and sometimes it just clicks sooner than expected for guys. However, I can't buy him sustaining this red-hot start to his career. It's a great story, and I hope I'm wrong, but I'd be quick to pull the plug on deploying him in redraft leagues when he starts to cool down.
Morejon's stuff has never been in question. I still think he's more of a Freddy Peralta/Jonathan Loaisiga type who can excel in three-inning stints but can't hold up or remain effective with a true starter's workload. I could be wrong about that, especially in a short season, but I also don't think the Padres have any reason to push him, given their pitching depth.
Dunning will be added to the top 400 on the next update, assuming he doesn't look terrible Wednesday against the Tigers. He's no worse of a spot starter than guys like Kris Bubic, and I think he has a better chance of developing into a solid mid-rotation starter than Reynaldo Lopez or Carlos Rodon, although that has more to do with how low I am on those injured hurlers.
Stashing
The problem here is that Chris Taylor has been flat out good — probably as good as we would have hoped Lux would be this season — so there just isn't a spot for Lux to get everyday playing time. Sure, he's better than Enrique Hernandez, but the Dodgers obviously feel Lux is benefiting more from getting everyday reps at the alternate training site than part-time reps in the majors. He is a pretty tough hold in NFBC leagues at the moment, especially if you've dealt with other injuries/absences and already have to stash someone like Mike Clevinger or Josh Donaldson. I've been wrong on Lux a couple times already this year, so I'm really not sure how this plays out over the next six weeks.
Gore, like Matt Manning, has surprisingly been passed over for a promotion thus far. I get that Adrian Morejon and Cal Quantrill are on the 40-man roster and have big-league experience, but if Gore was dominating at the alternate site, I find it hard to believe he would not have been given the opening in the rotation when Joey Lucchesi was demoted. If you're holding him in redraft and it's costing you in the standings (taking zeros or starting pitchers with bad matchups), I think you can cut him loose, but I know that's a tough pill to swallow.
General Manager Al Avila said Monday that Manning has to work on command, control and some mechanical tweaks. He is 6-foot-6, and there is always fine-tuning to be done with young starting pitchers that size, but I still am confident in him having the highest fantasy ceiling of the Tigers' renowned trio of pitching prospects. I would expect him to be up in a couple weeks, but I understand that's a tough stash to pull off in some redraft leagues.
I would have interest in adding Sanchez in almost all formats if/when he gets the call. As I've said before, he and Mize are extremely similar pitchers from an approach (weak contact > strikeouts) and ceiling standpoint. The Marlins wisely weren't going to let the COVID-19 outbreak affect their plans for Sanchez. He is still fine tuning at the alternate training site, but I still believe he will make his big-league debut this season.
J.A. Happ had his best start of the season his last time out, which should buy him at least one more turn. We're probably looking at Schmidt needing an injury to someone in the big-league rotation for him to make his debut this month, as the team does not have any doubleheaders on tap anytime soon. It would be one thing if the inconsistency behind Gerrit Cole in the rotation was costing the Yankees in the standings, but they've been the best team in the American League.
The Mariners have rightfully kicked Mallex Smith and Daniel Vogelbach off the 40-man roster, so I'm starting to wonder if that spells a promotion for Kelenic. It would be an admirable move (sad that this is what it has come to) for the Mariners to treat their baseball team like a meritocracy. If Kelenic gets the call, he should obviously be added in all formats.
Promotion Imminent, Non Stashing Division
I'd be surprised if Trammell wasn't called up soon, given the Tommy Pham injury, but that doesn't mean he will have everyday at-bats when he gets the call. I'd add him in deeper leagues if he got the call and I needed steals, but it's tough to stash a guy of his caliber when the playing time outlook and ETA are both murky.
Mountcastle is not some kind of savior or barometer for a team "trying to win". He is best suited as a DH and he will be a low OBP DH/LF/1B, so he won't move the needle much from a real-life standpoint. That said, his bat is probably an upgrade at several spots, and he's not the caliber of prospect that I'd be playing service-time games with.
Somehow the Braves are in first place in the NL East despite having just one capable starter (Max Fried, who is awesome) following the heartbreaking Mike Soroka injury. Their depth chart tells me that sooner or later, one or both of Anderson (not on the 40-man) and Davidson (on the 40-man) will be up. They both have great fastballs and shaky command. There have been more positive reviews on Davidson's offspeed stuff than Anderson's over the last few months, but it's hard to put a ton of stock into that without at least seeing video. Both guys are capable of having a great start on any given day against a big-league lineup, but to put things in perspective, I'd rather start Kyle Wright in a redraft league than either Anderson or Davidson if they had the same opponent on tap.
I think we see McClanahan up in the coming weeks, given the injuries the Rays have dealt with, but I think it would be in a multi-inning relief role, possibly following a guy like Trevor Richards in the rotation. His stuff is absolutely filthy, so if he was the second bulk pitcher in an outing, he would have value even in shallower leagues, but he isn't worth stashing given his likely role.
Long Shots
The Dodgers have such an embarrassment of riches. They lose Alex Wood to injury and David Price to an opt out and they still have a SIX-MAN rotation that no other team can match. They could move Ross Stripling back to the bullpen, given how good Tony Gonsolin has been, and still have five high-end MLB starters. Gray would be the next man up if they need a seventh starter, but it would probably require an injury to someone ahead of him to get more than just a spot start here and there.
I'm not saying Rodgers is a long shot to be up at some point, but I don't really see a clear path to significant playing time for him this year.
The White Sox really care about winning this season, so the normal service-time games may not apply to Vaughn if one of Jose Abreu or Edwin Encarnacion were to see an extended absence.
He is healthy and ahead of James Kaprielian in the pecking order if the A's need to add a prospect to the rotation. That said, it will take an injury ahead of him for Jefferies to get his chance.
Downs should already be up if promotions were based solely on merit. The fact the Red Sox are 6-18 makes it highly unlikely they start his clock.
Buy Low
He is going to be a very good big-league hitter for a long time, and this 22 plate appearance sample offers the best chance to buy low. He is only seeing 32 percent fastballs, which is a ton of respect for any young hitter.
He's made two appearances and they haven't gone great, but I still think he's at least a No. 2 starter long term. Take advantage of this opportunity to prey on a panicking dynasty manager.
Young Arms I'm Following Closely
Sandoval has taken the loss in two straight starts, but he has gone six innings in each of those starts — a rare feat for a guy on waivers in many leagues — and has a 1.08 WHIP over that stretch. I'm starting him in several leagues Wednesday in San Francisco, and if he answers the bell in that matchup, I think he can safely be deployed as a spot starter over the rest of the season.
Quantrill got a super random save Tuesday, logging one out on four pitches. I started him in some leagues this week thinking he'd get the Rangers on Thursday, but it now sounds like he will go Friday against the Astros — a matchup I'm much less bullish about. He could very well get rocked in that start, but I think he has a better chance than Adrian Morejon to get fully stretched out to a starter's workload, even if Morejon may be better on a per-inning basis.
I still really like what I've seen from Hatch this season. He may get traditional starts for Toronto now that Nate Pearson is on the IL, but even if he does not, he is an appealing add in dynasty leagues because he could have a bright future as a starter and you can extract value now in his multi-inning relief role. His whiff rate is in the 93rd percentile and I think he will generate more groundballs with a larger sample.
Look, I know he doesn't miss many bats, but he's just a good starting pitcher. Only Lance McCullers has a higher groundball rate among qualified starters, and his 6.3 percent walk rate is above average. I'm not saying he is Kyle Hendricks or Mike Soroka, but I think there is some staying power with Dobnak, especially given his advantageous team context.
