Rounding Third: Targeting Relievers for Wins

Because of the long layoff during the COVID-19 shutdown (and infinity labor war) and also because of the upcoming short-term "summer training," there's a legitimate concern starting pitchers won't be fully up to speed by the time the season starts. If that's the case, a number of teams will have starting pitchers going only three to four innings in their first couple of starts, perhaps even longer. In a season that only lasts 60 games (roughly nine weeks), every opportunity to earn a win will be precious. But it's impossible for a starting pitcher to earn a win if he doesn't go at least five innings.

As a result, some analysts in our community have contemplated whether we still should use wins as a category this season:

I'm a member of the ToutWars executive board, and we considered that question before deciding to leave the category in. In our case, the teams have already been drafted, so unless we were willing to redraft every league, some teams would potentially be compromised by how they already structured their teams. But there are other objections to changing, on the merits. The big one is that these pitchers eventually will get up to speed, though some will take longer than others. The problem will eventually resolve itself. Another objection — what category would you propose changing to from wins? You certainly don't solve the problem by using Quality Starts, where the qualification threshold is even higher. Could you use Innings Pitched? Perhaps — that would generally favor starting pitchers, and in many cases those who perform better work more innings. I've also seen K/9 as a potential metric. I find all those alternatives lacking, but to each his own. What other options would you suggest?

In the meantime, maybe there's a better way to attack the category. I'm not the first to suggest that we should still go after our preferred aces early in the draft, particularly in the NFBC, or any other remaining contest that has an overall component. But I remain in that camp — and in fact, getting two starters at the top of our fantasy rotation is even more important if my proposed secondary component is employed. After getting two to three top-of-the-line starters and a closer or two, perhaps an optimal strategy is to target the better nonclosing relievers, especially if they're likely to either appear in games where the team is winning around the fourth or fifth inning, or when the game is tied in later innings.

Here are a few characteristics to look for:

• Team – This doesn't need much explaining. If you're chasing wins, you're going to have to chase them from the better teams.
• Skills – We're looking for pitchers who have more than mere opportunity to pick up wins. We want them to post good ratios and a reasonably good strikeout rate. After all, even though the starting pitchers whom these are replacing are limited in their usage, they're still getting more innings than our relievers. So we should demand good strikeout skills from these pitchers.
• Limited starters – Ideally, these relievers pitch for a team more likely to limit their starters early on. Atlanta, for instance, has already stated that they're likely to limit their starting pitchers to two to four innings in their initial starts. That doesn't mean, however, that you want to have these relievers backing up inferior starters, though — after all, we want them to come into the game with either a lead or a tie.
• Success using openers – If teams are using an "opener" model, it can be hugely advantageous to identify the primary relievers behind them. The Rays have aced this test in the past, so I implicitly trust them if they go that route again. To be clear, though, a team doesn't have to use an opener to make this work, but it's one previously successful route. We're really going to have to pay close attention to everything out there in the next few weeks to judge each team's intentions.

Pitchers to target:

1. Ross Stripling, Dodgers – Did I write an entire column just to tout Ross Stripling? Maybe! But Stripling checks a lot of boxes for us. The Dodgers typically are right there with the Yankees for the highest projected wins total (37.5 at BetMGM.com). Unlike many of the other relievers on this list, going multiple innings shouldn't be that difficult for Stripling, a big advantage both in terms of chasing wins and in trying to keep up in strikeouts. His strikeout percentage (roughly 25 percent over the last three years) is pretty strong, too. So far we don't have much current ADP — the one June draft where he was selected, he went with pick 291. That's around the draft price of Miles Mikolas or Cole Hamels, both pitchers who had injuries in spring training. I'd prefer Stripling comfortably.
2. Andrew Kittredge, Rays – Of course I'm going to cite at least a couple Rays pitchers on this list. It's important to watch what Kevin Cash says about how he intends to deploy his pitchers in this season. They indicated they were moving away from using an opener model in the spring, but with the shorter schedule and ramp up time, it makes sense to revisit that decision. Not only have they had a lot of success with openers, but their organization is deep in quality arms to pull it off again. Kittredge is a pitcher that Jason Collette has targeted in his "Bold Predictions" series, citing among other items Kittredge's velocity gain last season. The only danger is that Kittredge is the opener, not the primary reliever — he could open up ahead of Ryan Yarbrough or Yonny Chirinos again. Other good options in Tampa Bay include Colin Poche, Chaz Roe and of course Brendan McKay.
3. Chris Martin, Braves – Braves GM Alex Anthropolous has already said that the Braves will limit their starting pitchers early on, which makes sense given the youth of Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz. Martin is the best of the Braves' nonclosing relievers and might be their best reliever period, big contract to Will Smith notwithstanding. Don't be fooled by the 4.08 ERA with the Braves after the trade with the Rangers — instead, be encouraged by the 22:1 K:BB over 17.2 innings.
4. Drew Pomeranz, Padres – The Padres might not be contenders this year, but they're blessed with a loaded bullpen and thus could get the jump on their competition early. Pomeranz is the leading candidate to target given his experience starting in the past, though in February new manager Jayce Tingler said that they'd use him in short outings. Will the demands of the shorter, compressed schedule change that plan? In relief work last year, Pomeranz struck out 50 batters in 28.2 innings, holding them to a .165 batting average. Other good candidates in the Padres pen include Emilio Pagan, Jose Castillo and Craig Stammen.
5. Tyler Duffey, Twins – Duffey had an under-the-radar breakout season with the Twins last season, posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 57.2 innings after beginning the season in the minors. A former starter, Duffey's success can be credited to adding velocity to his four-seam fastball (94.0 mph in 2019, up from 93.0 in 2081 and 92.1 the year before) and tightening up his arsenal of pitches — a common theme for breakout pitchers under a new coaching staff. The metric that really jumps off the page is his 34.5 K percentage — that'll help make up the stagger from not using a starter the first couple of weeks. Trevor May is another good option with the Twins, who should have among the more favorable schedules in baseball in the AL Central.
6. Seth Lugo, Mets – The Mets toyed with the idea of using Lugo as a starter this offseason, before signing both Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. Lugo might merit going higher on this list, but I think the Mets will focus on using him in the late innings, much like Will Harris on the Nats. But the difference between the two is that Lugo is capable of going multiple innings in a stint, and his 33.1 K percentage last season was superior. He'll cost you an earlier pick in drafts, but he comes with the certainty that you can keep him active during those early weeks of the season.
7. Ryan Pressly, Astros – Pressly dealt with a right knee over the second half of last season and thus had a limited workload, but when he was healthy his numbers remained dominant — 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 28.4 K-BB percentage. Pressly will be working in the later innings and might not pile up as many wins or strikeouts, but he's still among the elite set-up men in the game, and won't cost as much in drafts as he did in 2019. Brad Peacock and Joe Smith are also good targets, and if Austin Pruitt lands in the bullpen he's viable, too.
8. Michael Lorenzen/Amir Garrett/Robert Stephenson, Reds – Because of the improvement from Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray in the rotation last season, it's easy to overlook the big steps taken by the Reds' bullpen last year, which went from one of the worst in the game in 2018 to one of the better units. Lorenzen is likely the Reds' closer in waiting if Raisel Iglesias falters, but he's capable of working multiple innings and has been stretched out during the shutdown. His strikeout percentage jumped from 15.7 to 24.8 last year under Johnson's tutelage, and he's been adding even more velocity over the offseason. Both Garrett and Stephenson are former starters who took big steps forward while moving to the bullpen.
9. Freddy Peralta/Corbin Burnes, Brewers – When I drafted Burnes and Peralta in the spring, it was with the hope they'd win spots in the starting rotation. Burnes in particular seemed on his way in the spring, and Peralta had all but won a spot on the Opening Day roster if not in the rotation. Now I'm sort of hoping that instead they take on a primary reliever role, at least early on. Between Eric Lauer, Brett Anderson and possibly even Josh Lindblom, the Brewers have a number of starters who might not be able to go deep into games, and that might even be manager Craig Counsell's preference. Burnes was having a dominant spring, and Peralta wasn't that far behind. Both have outstanding strikeout potential and the ability to go multiple innings, on a team that should be at least average or even above average.
10. Will Harris, Nationals – How often does a World Series winning team subsequently sign the pitcher against whom they hit a Game 7 go-ahead homer? That occurrence aside, Harris was the Astros' most reliable reliever down the stretch and consistently has displayed above-average strikeout and walk rates, though his ability to sneak in wins might not be as strong as others on this list, as he'll only go one inning at a time and typically will be pitching in the seventh and eighth innings. Still, the combination of his skills and the Nats' strength should provide some opportunities.

This list isn't exhaustive, but it's a good starting point to address the unique challenges of this season. Drafting and starting one to three of these pitchers can help you attack the first couple of weeks of the season without losing too much ground in wins and strikeouts, though you'll likely have to pivot to streaming two-step starters later in the season as they become more capable of going deeper into games.