Collette Calls: FAAB Pursuits

Nearly all of us are done drafting, but I know they're still happening. I've seen the activity on NFBC, and I even have one more auction. Quite frankly, I am ready to put drafts behind me and begin focusing on how to enhance the results through the free-agent process. 

I do enjoy the challenges of the FAAB process, from deciding how much to spend where, trading for FAAB dollars or deciding to blow through as much of it as possible early to enjoy the fullest return on the investment. The purpose of this article is to start thinking ahead to when the season starts (I'm remaining cautiously optimistic) so you can begin looking ahead at that first glorious FAAB period, whenever it happens. 

We have had 86 online NFBC drafts since March 1, where the format with 12 teams and 30 rosters. I'm going to highlight five hitters and five pitchers below whose ADP since March 1 is outside the top 400, allowing for a bit of wiggle room in the ADP rather than starting at ADP 361. That leaves us only 147 players to look into, so understand the pickings are a bit slim. I am also excluding players I wrote up in my Bold Prediction series such as Shed Long and Austin Allen.

Hitters

Jay Bruce - Bruce is expected to be the Opening Day left fielder, according to the latest reports, as the club values his power from the left side. Bruce is well-entrenched into splittsville having showing little ability to do much against lefties for most of the past five years, but he has slugged higher than .520 against righties in three of the last four seasons. Last year's exit velocity was his highest in five seasons, and 44 percent of his contact came as hard contact. Bruce has his flaws, but Citizens Bank Park is a great fit for his power skill, and I am willing to stash it on my bench in case something happens. 

Cameron Maybin - Maybin feels like he is closing on 40, but he is still seven years away from that birthday. The last time he saw a lot of playing time, he swiped 33 bases, even though he had but a .318 on-base percentage. He is best used in a platoon, but that is how a good team would use him. Detroit could be forced into using him more than his skillset should be on the field, but more playing time means more opportunities to run. Detroit has nothing to lose, but you have some to gain if Maybin runs more in this limited season. He still has an 87th percentile speed score, so the skill has the foundation it needs to materialize in-season. One stolen base has decided leagues before, but the category will be especially condensed in a shortened season. 

Rowdy Tellez - Tellez is the new Justin Smoak for Toronto. Smoak existed, and Tellez's power bat assumes the roster spot. Tellez does not switch hit, but has similar contact flaws, but the power is legit. His barrel% was in the top 10 percent of the league, and he made some mechanical adjustments this winter to get more out of his swing at the plate while looking to cut down on the empty swings. If we had a full season, he would have been a candidate for a 30-homer season with the home park, increased playing time and friendly parks within the AL East. 

Austin Nola - Nola could gain catcher eligibility early in the season. He caught seven games last year, but is projected to catch more this season behind Tom Murphy. That is why he is interesting because he would be a decent second catcher bat, even though the expected metrics show that he overperformed in his rookie season last year. The catcher eligibility is the speculation here, and picking him a week or two before he gets it will save you FAAB money.

Ji-Man Choi - Choi has really matured as a hitter. He has maintained an excellent eye at the plate drawing double-digit walk rate and has cut down on his strikeouts, while not giving up anything in the power department. He has a 91.4 mph average exit velocity the last three seasons and his hard-contact rate lives in the low 40s. Sure, hitting lefties presents its challenges, but his .274/.377/.492 line against righties last season was 32 percent better than league average. He should be on the field 65-70 percent of the time this season, and getting his cheap power on your bench early would be wise.

Pitchers

Jose Alvarado - Alvarado was the talk of town little more than a year ago. Then, he forgot how to throw strikes and could not find the plate and pitched his way out of the closer role. When he is right, he is pumping triple-digit heat that dances in the strike zone and is very tough to square up. When he is wrong, he is bouncing his slider and his fastball is lucky to find the zone. We saw both guys last year, but mostly the wrong one until he came up lame in late August. This is thrift store shopping at its finest as he was going $10-$12 in mixed league auctions this time last year and has essentially gone undrafted this spring. I firmly believe bullpen utilization this season will be unrecognizable as managers look to maximize talents and availability while eschewing traditional roles. 

Aaron Bummer - Bummer is the backup to Alex Colome, who is closing on borrowed time. There is much to be worried about in Colome's profile as he continues to give up hard contact, but luck swung his way last season as he had a top-10 percent weighted on-base average despite one of the worst average exit velocities in baseball. His walk rate continues to rise, and the league continues to square him up well, which are trends closers try to avoid. Bummer has the skills to close, but lacks the opportunity. Skills cost you single digits in FAAB cycles; closers cost you multiples of that once they have the job. Buy the skills and wait for the role to materialize. The final sentence in Alvarado's paragraph sticks here too; I've been acquiring a fourth reliever in most of my drafts rather than a sixth starter because I am concerned  the wins, and especially quality starts, categories are going to be a hot non-traditional mess this year. 

Patrick Sandoval - Sandoval is a prospect whose fastball, slider and curveball already receive above-average grades from prospect while the changeup lags. That profile looks like a swing man type pitcher, which is precisely the type of pitcher I believe has enhanced value if the 2020 season plays out in an abbreviated format. The team's staff is Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Shohei Ohtani (at times) and then a revolving door for the fifth spot, which likely will be needed more frequently as baseball will want to maximize games played on the schedule once a start date is permitted. Pena could start, or work a time through the order after a starter has done their thing. Either way, I'm intrigued by his potential enough to use a bench spot to see how things play out. 

Rafael Montero - Montero returned to baseball last year looking nothing like the guy we last saw pitching for the Mets. Montero looked fantastic out of the pen for the Rangers in limited time with fastballs up, changeups down and sliders away. More important, Montero threw strikes, which he was unable to do on a consistent basis in New York. Montero is the primary backup to Jose Leclerc, who has his issues at closer. In a shortened season, Chris Woodward may not exercise the same patience with Leclerc that he did last season, so the Aaron Bummer situation applies here as well. 

Nick Pivetta - Like Alvarado, Pivetta was hot in drafts in 2019. Like Alvarado, Pivetta struggled with his command and pitched his way out of his role and into middle relief. He spent the offseason re-working his delivery and working on a changeup in hopes of getting back into the rotation. We are still talking about a pitcher who has struck out 25 percent of the major league hitters he has faced in more than 390 innings at the big league level. This will not be another Lucas Giolito story where Pivetta goes from garbage to Cy Young candidate in a single season because Giolito had a higher ceiling at the time. Still, Pivetta is capable of more than what he showed last year, and a better delivery plus the presence of a changeup (3 percent in his career) could be just what he needs.