Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 76-100

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This fourth article will cover my updated 76-100 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. Last week's tier that started with Josiah Gray at No. 72 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 72-100.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the players who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Ronny Mauricio/JJ Bleday/George Valera/Taylor Trammell/Xavier Edwards

The 76-100 range is filled with guys who I wish I could find room for higher in the rankings, but, often for small reasons, I prefer the guys I have ranked a little further up. That being said, I could justify putting any of these hitters in the top 75.

With Mauricio, I totally buy him having the ceiling of a top-12 fantasy third baseman or shortstop who hits for a pretty high average while banging out 25-plus home runs annually. My issue is that he is capped as a four-category hitter and there is physical growth and skills growth required for that high-end outcome to really materialize. All the signs are promising, given his age, level, pedigree and the fact that he is a switch hitter, but I felt like I was putting the cart before the horse when I had him ranked in the top 50 at the end of the minor-league season. He's the type of prospect who could eventually get into the top 20 before he graduates, but the upside and present tools are such that I did not feel that I needed to be aggressive with him at this stage of his development. However, he is talented enough that the power could come in a hurry, and it wouldn't be surprising if I had to bump him 20-30 spots pretty early in his second act in full-season ball.

While Bleday is three-plus years older than Mauricio, I have some of the same reservations with him. He is capped as a four-category anchor, and my confidence in him reaching that outcome isn't high enough for me to rank him as though getting there is a foregone conclusion. He had a big power spike as a junior at Vanderbilt, and while the aggressive assignment to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League played a part in him failing to hit for notable power, I wonder if he might be more of a 20-25 homer guy than a 30-plus homer guy. I also wonder if he will slow down a bit in the coming years and become more of a fringe-average defensive outfielder, which could result in him being relegated to the strong side of a platoon. Bleday is a high-character guy who works really hard, so he could come out guns blazing in his first full pro season and start to look the part of a middle-of-the-order hitter who is close to big-league ready. That's my concern in him being ranked where he is.

As soon as I started writing Valera's 2020 outlook back in early November, I realized I had him ranked way too high (13th overall!), but sometimes I have overcorrected in those instances, and it's possible I did that with him. Valera's scouting report has changed quite a bit over the past two years. He used to be a potential five-category center fielder whose potentially plus hit tool was his top trait. However he has thickened some since then, and it now seems like he might be a power-over-hit left fielder who doesn't run, which is not ideal given his age — the power was always going to come, but I fear he fell in love with being a power hitter last year at the expense of his hit tool. Considering he is roughly three years away from the majors, his updated scouting report no longer warrants an aggressive ranking. However, he missed so much time prior to the 2019 season that it's possible he will be a better, more disciplined hitter in his second healthy pro season. He is also just 19 and supposedly has good makeup, and it can be dangerous to draw confident conclusions on what players like that can't do. 

I was out in front on Trammell being overhyped heading into last year, expecting a shaky season in his first tour of Double-A. While I was right about that, the tools that led others to overrate him still exist, and he showed signs of life in the Texas League playoffs last year and in big-league spring training this year. Were it not for those two small-sample successes, I would confidently have him outside of the top 100, but maybe he figured something out and turned the corner. The Padres really like him, so he should get a chance to play every day if he hits at Triple-A. I can't quite close the door on him becoming a Starling Marte type of leadoff hitter, and obviously if he gets close to that, this ranking will be way too low.

Edwards is a more toolsy Nick Madrigal without Madrigal's guaranteed playing time. My predraft comp of Dee Gordon with a better OBP is still in play, which makes this ranking a little scary. Edwards is a really good hitter, but he is not a power hitter (12.5 Hard%) and probably won't ever be a power hitter. Will the Rays ever have everyday at-bats available to a non-power hitter, even if he does everything else well? My fear is that the answer to that question is no. The Rays are in luxury pieces mode, stockpiling elite platoon bats and high-end defenders just because they can. Name any type of valuable offensive player and they've got multiple versions of that player in their organization, other than a catcher who is good at hitting and catching. This has me worried that Edwards could find himself in a Myles Straw role when he gets to the majors. I like Straw, and I'd love Straw for fantasy if he were on a team that could give him everyday playing time. I feel the same way about Edwards. If he were to get traded to a better situation, I'd immediately bump him up my ranks. It's even possible he is such a good hitter and such a versatile defender that he is the Rays' leadoff man in a 'Kenny Lofton with the 1990s Indians' type of way, in which case this ranking would look really bad.

Pitcher: Tarik Skubal/Daniel Lynch/Logan Gilbert/Brailyn Marquez

What do all four of these pitchers have in common? Elite fastballs. Skubal not only has velocity, but he has excellent deception from the left side. Lynch is a southpaw with good extension on a mid-to-high-90s heater. Gilbert gets elite extension on his mid-to-high-90s fastball (extension refers to a long-levered pitcher's pitches getting on hitters in a hurry — both Lynch and Gilbert are 6-foot-6). Marquez has the best fastball of the bunch — an 80-grade monster that regularly touches triple digits. 

Gilbert was the genesis for this entire article series, as I have been slow to come around on him being a top-100 guy due to the fact I don't see any plus secondary offerings (yet). Then I thought of Brandon Woodruff, who I like, and realized I might be contradicting myself by being too low on Gilbert. If Woodruff's 80-grade fastball is good enough for him to get by with less-than ace-like secondary stuff, why can't any of these guys pull off that feat? Lynch's plus slider is the best secondary pitch of this foursome, and it's safe to say none of them have three above-average pitches. However, they are all young enough and talented enough to change that narrative. If any of them develops a plus changeup, this ranking would be too low. The nice thing about starting off with an elite fastball is that all of the secondary pitches get a little boost, since hitters have to constantly be thinking about the heater. Another thing that all four of them have in common is that they have never been "my guys". I definitely didn't love any of them pre-draft, and I didn't LOVE any of them at any point during the 2018 or 2019 seasons, so they've faced an uphill battle on my rankings this offseason. All four have high ceilings and are developmental gains away from those ceilings really coming into focus. As with the Woodruff example, they may not even need significant developmental gains to prove these rankings too low.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Luis Garcia/Jared Oliva

I love Garcia's bat-to-ball ability and makeup. That's a pretty good place to start with any hitting prospect. However, he lacks plus speed or plus power, and it would take a pretty big adjustment for him to unlock 25-homer power. Even with all of that said, and with him spending all of last season at Double-A, he doesn't turn 20 for another month, so he is still ahead of schedule. For him to become the .300 hitter who chips in 15 and 15 that I envisioned when I fell in love with him a couple years ago — basically Michael Brantley at shortstop — he needs to adjust and improve his mechanics at the plate while also becoming much more patient. Too often he would make contact with pitchers' pitches, just because he could, and sometimes that can be a hard habit to break. I think he will make the necessary adjustments, but I acknowledge that he will be a fringe fantasy option if he does not.

If Oliva fails, it won't be because of any makeup issues. He is probably the must humble, grounded professional athlete I've ever interviewed. However, that experience of talking to him in the AFL has probably impacted my ranking of him. Makeup is important, but so is talent. Barry Bonds is the best baseball player I've ever seen and he wouldn't have given me the time of day if I tried to interview him early in his pro career. Even before talking to Oliva, I had him ranked in the top 150 due to the fact I think he's a cinch to steal 20-30 bases if he hits enough to play every day. The big question is whether or not he will hit enough to play every day. I think he will get that opportunity, as Bryan Reynolds and Gregory Polanco are the only guys assured of playing time in Pittsburgh, but I am not overly confident (maybe 50/50) that Oliva will do what he needs to do with that opportunity.

Pitcher: Mitch Keller

I didn't really have a guy I felt that I might be too high on in this section, so I wanted to touch on Keller, who I clearly can't get a good feel for. He was barely inside my top 150 at the end of the season, then he was inside my top 70 on Jan. 1. Now he is barely inside the top 100. So what gives? His slider is GIF-worthy and a legitimate weapon. His curveball is also a swing-and-miss pitch. But, while his fastball has above-average velocity, big-league hitters have no trouble tagging 96-mph heaters when they are relatively straight and in the zone. His changeup should be scrapped. So that leaves him with two really good breaking balls and a fastball that he should probably be throwing as little as possible. I don't really like that formula, especially for someone who has struggled with sequencing. Players like Patrick Corbin and Lance McCullers have gotten good results by leaning on their breaking balls over their fastball, and in Keller's case, I would recommend something like a 40 percent slider usage, 40 percent fastball usage and 20 percent curveball usage. He threw his fastball 60 percent of the time last year, so this would take a major adjustment. We will see what this new regime does with him, but I think I will either end up being too high or too low on him.

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.