MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.

With news slowing to a trickle due to the league's transaction freeze, there isn't a whole lot of rising and falling going on. While I'll still be covering the most important risers and fallers each week, I'll try to avoid scraping the bottom of the barrel just to come up with the customary 10 names. To keep this column useful and interesting during these unusual times, I'll expand the introductory section to share some research I've done on some more general fantasy baseball topics.

Up first: How reliable are the league's top base stealers from one season to the next?

I rarely finish my drafts projecting to be among the league leaders in steals. I don't punt the category entirely by any means, but I consistently find myself lower than the market on the likes of Trea Turner, Adalberto Mondesi or Jonathan Villar. I regularly catch myself thinking something along the lines of, "Sure, if Turner hits .290 with 20 homers and 40 steals, I'd love him at his price, but what if he steals 20? What if he steals 10?"

To assess whether that fear is reasonable, I grabbed all the players who were in the top 10 (or tied for a top-10 spot) in steals over the last decade and looked at how many bases they stole the following season. I'll share the data and my biggest takeaways below. My full spreadsheet can be found here for those of you who feel like fantasy content has

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Halterman
Erik Halterman is an MLB staff writer at RotoWire and the winner of the staff's 2018 RotoWire & FanDuel Fantasy Baseball Championship.
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