Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

While spring is here, baseball is curiously, noticeably absent.  A truly unique set of circumstances in these socially distant times.  We are all doing our best to play our part in combatting the coronavirus, whether on the front lines at the hospitals, or simply by doing the right thing and staying home.  Once baseball returns, and it will, we will all have played a role, no matter how big or how small, in keeping the country (and the world) afloat.

As each week moves on without actual baseball being played, this article will dive deeper into the depths of the minors.  For now, though, there are still plenty of top-notch prospects to be analyzed.  Stay safe.  Stay healthy.  Care for those less fortunate in whatever way you can.

Here is this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Luis Patino, P, SD – Mackenzie Gore gets the pub in this system, but Patino has also rocketed up the ranks recently.  The 20-year-old found little resistance in High-A and Double-A last season, posting a 2.57 ERA and 123:38 K:BB in 94.2 innings.  Based upon Patino's age, smaller stature, as well as having just 7.2 innings pitched at Double-A, the odds would be against him becoming an impact starter for the Padres in 2020.  That said, Chris Paddack had just seven starts at Double-A in 2018 before beginning the season with the big club in 2019.  He was 23 at the time, though.  In addition, the aforementioned Gore would appear to be slightly ahead of Patino in terms of the depth chart.  Still, when you look at the back end of that projected San Diego rotation, there isn't a whole lot to get excited about.  As a result, if Patino begins the season on a tear, the Padres could be tempted to bring him up sooner than initially anticipated.

Tarik Skubal, P, DET – Which top-tier starter makes it to the big leagues first for the Tigers: Matt Manning, Casey Mize or Skubal?  Skubal had a sensational breakout campaign in 2019, whiffing 179 batters in just 122.2 innings.  Oddly, his strikeout numbers were even better at Double-A than High-A, though his walks were also slightly elevated.  Mize would appear to have the polish, Skubal is the eldest and Manning perhaps has the most upside of the trio.  With the Tigers in full rebuild mode, it is unlikely that they rush any of the three hurlers.  But considering Skubal was a ninth-round pick from a lesser-known college, there might be less to lose by bringing him up sooner than the other two.

Daulton Jefferies, P, OAK – The A's have plenty of young, promising arms getting pub, but Jefferies might not be receiving enough notoriety.  Jefferies is already 24, having missed basically two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery.  However, he returned with a bang in 2020.  Jefferies had a 3.42 ERA and 93:9 K:BB through 79 innings, the majority of which came at Double-A.  The A's are certain to be cautious with Jefferies following his return from Tommy John surgery, and he will likely be on an innings limit.  He was also battling a biceps strain in spring training and had already been sent down to the minors prior to the season being suspended.  But with extra time to heal and surprisingly outstanding command shown despite the return from Tommy John surgery, Jefferies could be moved quickly and similarly to A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo.

Justin Dunn, P, SEA – Have you heard the Mariners are rebuilding?  Jarred Kelenic's ascension to prospect stardom should make the Mets queasy as it is, but Dunn is going to be much more than a throw-in, too.  Dunn mowed down the opposition at Double-A last season, and even opened four times for the big club in September.  He was wild in 6.2 innings, but that was not necessarily his makeup in the minors.  For example, he posted a 158:39 K:BB in 131.2 innings at Double-A in 2019 prior to the promotion.  The rotation for the Mariners looks like a Triple-A collection, so Dunn could factor into the rotation right from the start of the season.  Even if not right away, Dunn will get his shot sooner rather than later.

CHECK STATUS

Thad Ward, P, BOS – With the news that Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery, the dearth of starting pitching for the Red Sox comes into even greater focus.  The rotation is filled with mediocre, inconsistent and/or injury prone pitchers.  Unfortunately, not much help is coming through the pipeline for Boston either.  Ward, though, projects as the top starter and appears to be undervalued.  The 23-year-old has a superb slider, can mix as many as five pitches and fanned 157 batters in 126.1 innings a season ago.  The caveat is that he has not appeared above High-A yet and was a reliever in college, so he likely would be on some sort of innings limit in 2020.  In other words, he is unlikely to make an impact in the big leagues in 2020.  However, he is a polished collegian who held batters to a .198 BAA between Low-A and High-A in 2019.  With Boston's lack of starting pitching, Ward could rocket up the prospect charts with a strong start to the year.

Nick Madrigal, 2B, CHW – Madrigal has the inside track on the starting second base job for the White Sox.  He stole 35 bases in 120 games across three levels last season, but that's not even his most impressive skill.  Madrigal's handle of both the bat as well as the strike zone is beyond super.  He struck out 16 times in 473 at-bats, while walking 44 times.  Yes, you read that correctly.  He slashed .311/.377/.414.  So why not an upgrade?  Madrigal lacks power; he clubbed just four home runs last season, and at 5-foot-7, 165, that simply may not be in his arsenal.  As such, from a fantasy perspective, he is lacking in a significant category.  That doesn't mean he isn't valuable, or that he isn't going to be a stellar big leaguer.  It just means to temper your expectations a bit if banking on him at second base for fantasy purposes.

Abraham Toro, 3B, HOU – The issue for Toro is not if he can hit, but where he will play on a stacked Houston roster.  Barring injury, he's not playing over Alex Bregman or Jose Altuve in the infield, Yordan Alvarez is penciled in at DH, and Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker  have their eyes on at-bats in the outfield as well.  As a result, even if Toro makes the team when play resumes, his opportunities could be limited.  Toro had a huge season in the minors in 2019 before a cup of coffee in the bigs, hitting .324/.411/.527 with 17 home runs and 80 RBI in 114 games between Double-A and Triple-A.  It will be interesting to see if the Astros choose to keep his bat on the roster, perhaps as the new 26th man, or would prefer he has everyday at-bats in the minors to begin the season.

Drew Waters, OF, ATL – This article touched on Cristian Pache last week, and Waters is the other half of the equation.  Waters projects as a better hitter than Pache, but the former also battles strikeout issues.  Waters fanned 164 times in 134 games between Double-A and Triple-A.  Those numbers wouldn't be so bad if Waters actually showed even mediocre power.  Instead, he hit just seven home runs in that span.  The switch-hitting Waters will hit for average and can steal a few bases (he swiped 16 in 2019).  He was also just 20 last season, which must be considered.  Waters is an athletic prospect with a stellar hit tool, but he is blocked at the big-league level and might not have the power to be considered a truly elite fantasy prospect.

DOWNGRADE

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, BAL – Something feels fishy with Mountcastle, because he was sent down to the minors prior to the suspension of the season.  Sure, he hit just .235/.235/.412 in 34 plate appearances in spring training, but the sample size is small.  The Orioles still have Chris Davis at first for some reason, and the outfield without Trey Mancini is abysmal.  It didn't seem like Mountcastle, 23, had much left to prove at Triple-A either.  He batted .312/.344/.527 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI in 127 games for Triple-A Norfolk in 2019.  Maybe the O's want him to work on his plate discipline?  Mountcastle fanned 130 times while drawing just 24 walks.  One would think that a top hitting prospect on a rebuilding team who hit .312 with 25 home runs at Triple-A last year would get all the at-bats he could handle.  Maybe the O's want him to work on his fielding.  Maybe it is his strikeouts.  Or maybe it's a service time, manipulation thing.  In any event, Mountcastle doesn't appear to be ticketed to start the season in the big leagues, which would be curious to say the least.

DJ Peters, OF, LAD – There are even fewer opportunities in the outfield for a guy like Peters now that Mookie Betts has come to town.  Even before the trade, Peters was going to have a hard time securing at-bats with NL MVP Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and A.J. Pollock in the field.  Adding Betts to that stellar group only furthers the notion that Peters will be an everyday outfielder at Triple-A to begin the season.  Of course, a trade for Joc Pederson fell through, and he could still be dealt.  Likewise, A.J. Pollock can't seem to stay off the Injured List.  Still, the Dodgers have championship aspirations, so veterans like Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are much more likely to fill any voids than Peters.  As a result, the powerful Peters may eventually need a trade to a thinner organization to reach his true potential.

Oneil Cruz, SS/3B, PIT – I actually don't dislike Cruz as a prospect, just merely pointing out that there are a few red flags worth noting.  Cruz is a 6-7 shortstop, which is truly unprecedented.  However, he may end up shifting to third base or even the outfield.  Perhaps not surprisingly, he has plenty of power, though strikeouts will always be of great concern as he ascends to the higher levels of the minors.  It is worth noting, though, that he is just 21 and has not had absurdly bad strikeout numbers during his brief professional career.  However, just because he is as tall as Aaron Judge, does not mean he will end up being Aaron Judge.  Cruz also has had double-digit steals each of the last two seasons, which does help his profile a bit.  Still, whether he can hit for average and avoid large numbers of strikeouts at Triple-A and eventually the majors, where pitchers will be much more apt to use his height against him, is up in the air.

Brice Turang, SS, MIL –Turang was 19 last season and played his last 47 games at High-A, no small feat for a teenager.  While he showed excellent patience at the dish, he batted just .200 with one home run in that span.  Naturally, he looked much better at Low-A, where he had almost as many walks (49) as strikeouts (54), hit .287 and stole 21 bases in 82 games.  Still, Turang will have to hit for average to become even a semi-viable fantasy asset.  He has shown virtually no power during his brief time in the minors, and as such can't be counted on to produce much in the RBI column either.  He has more value in leagues that reward on-base percentage, but overall Turang just isn't all that appealing when there are shortstops like Trevor Story and Francisco Lindor who can provide the same figures in steals while also cranking 30-plus home runs.