This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
I am a big fan of distractions.
Obviously, there are several far more important things that need to be accomplished during this global crisis. But for those of us lucky enough to not be heroically fighting on the front lines of saving the world during these troubling times or struggling against COVID-19 itself, our main battle is staying sane. Distractions help us fight the boredom and keep our minds off things that are genuinely terrifying.
For the sports-obsessed among us, finding distractions has been particularly difficult lately. Personally, I've been getting my baseball fix by watching old games and playing ungodly amounts of Out of the Park Baseball. (The 1976 Royals, led by Mike Schmidt and Dave Winfield, fell one game short of a playoff spot after Bert Blyleven suffered a career-ending torn rotator cuff and are facing a tough challenge to keep the core together as the free agency era begins.) The thrill isn't the same as watching actual live sports, but it's getting me through so far.
With the need for distractions at an all-time high, the Barometer is returning to do its part despite the target date for Opening Day still unclear. I wish this could be a completely pandemic-free space to be truly as distracting as possible, but sadly most of the rising and falling among players lately has to do with the effects of a delayed and presumably shortened season. I discussed the general categories of players whose values are changing in my Delayed
I am a big fan of distractions.
Obviously, there are several far more important things that need to be accomplished during this global crisis. But for those of us lucky enough to not be heroically fighting on the front lines of saving the world during these troubling times or struggling against COVID-19 itself, our main battle is staying sane. Distractions help us fight the boredom and keep our minds off things that are genuinely terrifying.
For the sports-obsessed among us, finding distractions has been particularly difficult lately. Personally, I've been getting my baseball fix by watching old games and playing ungodly amounts of Out of the Park Baseball. (The 1976 Royals, led by Mike Schmidt and Dave Winfield, fell one game short of a playoff spot after Bert Blyleven suffered a career-ending torn rotator cuff and are facing a tough challenge to keep the core together as the free agency era begins.) The thrill isn't the same as watching actual live sports, but it's getting me through so far.
With the need for distractions at an all-time high, the Barometer is returning to do its part despite the target date for Opening Day still unclear. I wish this could be a completely pandemic-free space to be truly as distracting as possible, but sadly most of the rising and falling among players lately has to do with the effects of a delayed and presumably shortened season. I discussed the general categories of players whose values are changing in my Delayed Season Primer last week. This week's Barometer will expand on a few notable names from that piece as well as discuss some players who were rising and falling on draft boards before play shut down.
RISERS
James Paxton, SP, Yankees: Few players are helped more by a delayed season than Paxton. The veteran lefty underwent back surgery in mid-February and was given a return timeline of 3-4 months, putting his expected return somewhere between mid-May and mid-June. He had already seemed to be making decent progress in his recovery before camps shut down, potentially putting his return near the front of that range. Assuming that progress continues, there's a chance he's back before whenever Opening Day ends up. Of course, there's plenty of risk in drafting an injury-prone arm who's already injured, but there was always risk in drafting Paxton. At least he now won't be required to make 30 starts once the season begins, something he's never done.
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays: Glasnow doesn't benefit from the delay like Paxton, but his stock certainly benefits from a presumably shortened schedule. The 26-year-old broke out to show his undeniable talent last season, posting a 1.78 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and a 33.0 percent strikeout rate in 12 starts. He threw just 63 innings due to injury, however, after throwing only 111.2 in 2018, so workload concerns had been somewhat suppressing value this draft season. While it's unwise to project him to throw more than, say, 120 to 150 innings, there's a chance those numbers would be enough to place him among the league leaders in a shortened season. If he can approach the same level of dominance while handling a workload that competes with the league's workhorses, he'll be one of the very best fantasy pitchers in the game. He should still come with a discount based on the fact that he's only had one season where he's been remotely as good as he was last year, but the same can be said for Lucas Giolito, a pitcher whose ADP he should be approaching.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds: While Paxton's timeline still leaves the possibility for him missing time should play resume on the early side of the expected window, Suarez seems like a safe bet to be recovered from his shoulder surgery before Opening Day. He was scheduled for his Cactus League debut right before camp shut down and appeared to have a good shot to be ready to play on the originally scheduled Opening Day. With a long enough layoff since his procedure in January, Suarez should be drafted as if he was more or less completely healthy. His stock would have been high all winter had the injury never come up, as he's coming off a season in which he hit 49 homers and is now joined by Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama in a greatly improved Reds lineup. That group should score quite a lot of runs in their hitter-friendly home park, and Suarez will be right in the middle of the action.
Mike Clevinger, SP, Indians: Like Suarez, Clevinger's concerns about losing time due to his knee surgery have all but evaporated following news of the delayed season. His original timeline after tearing his left meniscus in mid-February gave him a chance to be ready by Opening Day but more realistically would have seen him return in mid-April. With mid-April now set to be well before play resumes, he should be completely injury free for the eventual start of the campaign. Sure, there's a risk in drafting a pitcher who has already been injured this year, but the risk should be far less when the problem isn't an arm injury. The delayed start of the season was already enough for me to bump Clevinger, who struck out an elite 33.9 percent of batters last season, all the way to 19 in our latest Roundtable Rankings, which were based on the original two-week delay. With the delay now going to be far longer than two weeks, I expect to make him a prime target in my remaining drafts.
Alex Wood, SP, Dodgers: Wood's stock was understandably low early in draft season, as he's coming off a year in which injuries limited him to seven ineffective starts for the Reds. He stumbled to a 5.80 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP as his strikeout rate sank to 19.6 percent. Returning to the Dodgers, where he's had plenty of success in the recent past, didn't necessarily boost his value right away, as the team has more than enough capable starters. He was named the fifth starter in early March after displaying increased velocity following an offseason visit to Driveline Baseball, however, and his stock has been rising considerably. The delayed season presumably gives Dustin May time to recover from his side injury and re-enter the rotation picture, but Wood's job seems fairly safe as he's proven himself to be a quality starter when healthy. His durability concerns remain but should be somewhat alleviated by the shorter schedule.
Josh James, SP(?), Astros: No pick elicited more conversation in my TGFBI draft as the selection of James at pick 246. A large handful of drafters (myself included) almost immediately said something to the effect of, "Man, he's been near the top of my queue for a while but I thought I could wait another round to grab him." That feeling likely was shared by plenty of drafters during that time, as James has been rocketing up draft boards. His NFBC ADP sat at 381.6 through Feb. 15 but has come in at 245.8 since. The interesting thing about that helium is it seems to be primarily generated by drafters themselves, as it's been clear for most of the offseason that James was in contention for a rotation spot. Still, I'm fully on board with James' new ADP and had him all the way up at 178 in the latest Roundtable Rankings. A popular sleeper pick last spring before a quadriceps injury knocked him out of a rotation spot, James went on to strike out 37.6 percent of batters in a relief role. His high 13.2 percent walk rate offset that somewhat and led to a 4.70 ERA, but a 3.98 FIP and a 3.77 xFIP suggest he has the tools to be effective even if his control problems remain. With fellow fifth-starter candidates Framber Valdez (career 4.60 ERA, 21.1 percent strikeout rate) and Austin Pruitt (career 4.87 ERA, 17.2 percent strikeout rate) owning rather unremarkable resumes, I expect James to win the job and do some exciting things with it, especially now that the shortened season won't require him to make 30 or more starts.
FALLERS
Domingo German, SP, Yankees /
Michael Pineda, SP, Twins: While the delayed season boosts injured players, who now have more time to get back on the field, it has the opposite effect on suspended players. German has 63 games remaining on his domestic violence suspension, while Pineda has 39 games left on his PED ban. Those numbers are low enough that the pair could be viewed similarly to a prospect stash in a normal season, as German would have had time to make roughly 20 starts, while Pineda could have made about 25. The shorter the season becomes, the less value this each has, as it's now quite possible German will miss at least half the season and not out of the question for Pineda to miss close to that amount. Both players are capable arms, posting ERAs of 4.03 and 4.01, respectively, last season, but neither is at an elite level that it's worth waiting on them for such a significant portion of the season. That obviously changes in leagues with large injured lists that allow owners to place suspended players on those lists, but if that's not the case for your league, look elsewhere.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Reds: Aquino was ridiculously hot and then ridiculously cold in his first extended taste of the big leagues last season, hitting .320/.391/.767 in August and .196/.236/.382 in September. The Reds' outfield became quite crowded this offseason after the team brought in Shogo Akiyama and Nick Castellanos, but Aquino still had his believers in early drafts, coming in at an NFBC ADP of 180.0 through Feb. 15. His stock has plummeted since then, however, as his ADP sits at 329.3 in drafts from Feb. 16 onward. While the young slugger certainly has the potential to claim an everyday role this season, it became clear as the offseason went along that he wasn't even guaranteed a roster spot. His performance in 10 spring training games certainly didn't help his case, as he went 2-for-26 with 11 strikeouts. The upside is still here, but the floor is low enough that I'm not particularly interested.
Wander Franco, SS, Rays: Drafting Franco was always a major risk and league-dependent, as he's a 19-year-old who's never played above High-A. Given his incredible talent (he hit .327/.398/.487 with a puny 7.1 percent strikeout rate as an 18-year-old in full-season ball last year) and the fact that the Rays are in for a tough fight to unseat the Yankees, it was possible to see him getting called up at some point midseason, making him a decent speculative stash in leagues with deep benches. It would be very surprising to see him called up without a fair amount of time spent in the minors, though, and given the shortened season, "a fair amount of time" could wind up being effectively the entire campaign. Unless the Rays start giving hints that Franco will be considered for a promotion very early in the shortened season, I no longer have much interest in stashing him even in leagues with deep benches.
Forrest Whitley, SP, Astros: Whitley is a very talented young arm, but he's coming off a mess of a 2019 campaign. He missed considerable time with shoulder fatigue and posted a terrible 7.99 ERA and a 15.8 percent walk rate in 59.2 healthy innings. That follows a 2018 campaign in which he pitched will but made just eight starts due to a recreational drug suspension and an oblique injury. The bottom line is that he still has plenty to prove in the minors despite being a highly-touted prospect who's already reached Triple-A. The Astros seem to have a pretty safe path to a playoff spot and aren't likely to need to call on him until he proves he's ready. The shorter the season becomes, the less time he'll have in the majors, if and when he proves that. I would rather stash a prospect who isn't coming off a bad year and whose team is more likely to need him right away like Spencer Howard.
