The Z Files: It's Better To Be Lucky and Good

Apologies if this comes off as a humblebrag; it isn't intended as such. Well, maybe a little. For the second straight year, the overall champion of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational comes from RotoWire as I was fortunate enough to dethrone Clay Link, the inaugural TGFBI champion.

For those not familiar, the TGFBI is the brainchild of Justin Mason, co-founder of Friends with Fantasy Benefits. It is set up just like the NFBC Main Event. In fact, TGFBI was hosted by the NFBC. There were 21 independent leagues consisting of representatives from just about every fantasy baseball site in cyberspace. Each league crowns a champion, but the big prize is awarded to the top team when all 315 rosters are lumped together and scored roto-style. The drafts were extended, starting on February 24, taking around three weeks, depending upon the pace of each group.

Instead of trying to rehash what I was thinking over seven months ago, below is my roster at four points of the season: Opening Day, right after Memorial Day weekend, coming out of the All-Star break, and the final weekend. Included are the rounds where each player was drafted or the date of acquisition with the amount of FAAB required. The bold players remained on the roster the entire season.

If you've ever wondered what it takes to win a contest of this nature, this is a great chance to dissect a season. I think you'll come to the conclusion, "Hey, I could do that!" No, this isn't an NFBC competition, but the NFBC drafts from the same pool of players and a homer, steal, win etc., count the same in both. I will say, however, pitching wasn't pushed quite as hard as the NFBC, at least in my league.

Here are the rosters, followed by some observations.

Some may call me out for preaching not to draft pitching early, yet I took Nola in the second and Clevinger in the fourth. My message was not to wait on pitching; it was not to force a starter just to get a pair of aces in the first four rounds or some such. I'll be stressing the same this offseason so I'll spare the harangue, but I do want to get out in front of the criticism I don't practice what I preach. My rankings had both Nola and Clevinger worthy of that spot, not to mention I nabbed them after their NFBC Main Event ADP.

It really is better to be both lucky and good. Yeah, I was extremely fortunate Bellinger had an MVP-type season, that was admittedly lucky. However his NFBC ADP was in the 40s, meanwhile I had him ranked 33rd, so I was giddy to snag him with the 36th pick.

Similarly, there was no way I planned on Semien smashing 33 long balls while crossing the plate a whopping 123 times. That said, I was well ahead of the market on the underappreciated shortstop, ranking him in the ninth round while the masses fashioned him more of a 13th rounder. Getting him in the 15th was extremely lucky.

FAAB is another area where chance meets the prepared mind. I'm not embarrassed to admit incorporating some advice offered by 2016 NFBC Main Even Champion Rob Silver. In an interview with Jeff Erickson and I on our SiriusXM show, Rob detailed his approach to FAAB, explaining the key is thinking ahead and saving enough to cover likely bids for the rest of the season, things like injury replacements and two-start pitchers. As an example, say you have 500 units left with 10 FAAB periods. While each league is different, it likely takes 20 units for the first few periods, 10 for the next few then maybe five the last couple of weeks. That's about 100-120 units, leaving 380-400 for luxury items. The temptation might be to spend 80-90% of the remainder on an emerging player like Aristides Aquino, but even if you get him, you're not going to be able to adequately support the rest of the roster with only 50 units and nine transaction periods. The algebra is different for every team, but keeping this in mind helped frame bids on a weekly basis. As you can see, while every bid wasn't successful, sage FAAB management paved the way to add Jon Berti, Victor Reyes, Mike Foltynewicz, Sam Hilliard and Archie Bradley among other down the stretch.

Being organized with the budget enables mistakes, of which I had many. So much for Nathan Eovaldi taking over as closer for the Red Sox after the All-Star break. Ty France, Robel Garcia and Kolby Allard didn't exactly come through.

There were several misses earlier in the season. Sure, Christian Walker, Dominic Smith, Jackie Bradley Jr., Sergio Romo, Hanser Alberto Anthony Santander and Delino DeShields Jr. all contributed at different points of the season but Cedric Mullins, Chris Owings, Mac Williamson, Ryon Healy, Brett Phillips, Isan Diaz, Matt Magill and Jordan Luplow didn't work out so well. The lesson learned is to be aggressive. Look to upgrade reserves even if they aren't needed in the active lineup. It's the spaghetti method - throw a bunch of names against the wall and see what sticks. Obviously, spending 417 on Walker was aggressive, but being consistently proactive on getting lesser priced replacements made it possible.

Taking down this league was a great experience, but it's time to turn the page and start working on 2020. That said, there are some tips that can be gleaned from my journey, applicable to future drafts and team management.