Mound Musings: Targeting 2020 – Building Your Draft Day Value List

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Updated on September 5, 2019 5:04PM EST

You might be in a pennant race or you might be looking forward to 2020. If your season is slipping away (or slipped away earlier), that doesn't mean your job is done. This is a great time to do your homework for next year, and even lay the foundations for a big season in 2020. This week we'll look at players to target next spring. Keep in mind, these won't necessarily be the "best" pitchers next season. These are pitchers who could potentially offer considerable value on draft day. They could be difference makers. The big name aces likely will post excellent numbers next season, but in the majority of leagues, you'll pay full price for those stats. We're looking for valuable arms you can buy at a discount. Let's see who tops the list of pitchers establishing themselves as players to target on draft day next season:

Yu Darvish (Cubs) – Sometimes fantasy owners forget the old adage, "What have you done for me lately?" and base their buying targets on the full season statistics of the pitcher in question. Right now, Darvish offers a rather pedestrian 4.25 ERA with a reasonably solid 1.14 WHIP. What those peripherals don't say is that he suffered through an inconsistent first half (5.01 ERA and 1.34 WHIP at the All-Star break). The big difference has been the rediscovery of his excellent command as he has rounded back into form following a couple injury-plagued seasons. Over the past two months, his K/BB rate

Julio Urias (Dodgers) – Just a couple seasons ago, Urias was perched securely atop my kids list. Then he suffered a shoulder injury, and his rehab was agonizingly slow, but that shouldn't cloud his long term future. The southpaw awed analysts as a 19-year-old in 2016 prior to the injury that cost him virtually all of 2017 and 2018. The Dodgers have closely monitored his workload this year and have been understandably cautious – using him primarily in two- or three-inning relief appearances, spaced out with no pitching on back-to-back days. This is how teams protect their most precious young assets. His velocity is back, his pitches are crisp, and the command is coming. He's tossed about 70 innings, and the Dodgers are building him up with an eye to possibly starting in October. He should join the rotation full-time next year, and while he probably won't log 200-plus innings in 2020, he could still be a fantasy ace. He won't come this cheap again.

Dinelson Lamet (Padres) – Regular readers know about my love for this guy's pure stuff. I touted him heavily upon his arrival in San Diego in 2017 and was giddy with anticipation in the spring of 2018. Unfortunately, he never threw a pitch that year, instead undergoing Tommy John surgery that spring. He's back with the Padres now, pitching with limitations as they build up his arm strength and stamina. So far in 2019 he has compiled a modest 4.24 ERA with a mediocre 1.27 WHIP over 51 innings. Certainly not Verlander, yet I could not be happier. His fastball velocity is actually up a tick from 2017 (97 mph), his slider is as devastatingly sharp as ever, and he's missing bats at a higher rate than ever (70 strikeouts in those 51 innings). Be aware, Lamet is not a finished product just yet. His release point, overall command and consistency of his secondary stuff are a work in progress, but I see it coming together. You want to own this guy.

Michael Pineda (Twins) – In 2011, Pineda made quite a splash when he came up with the Mariners. He was simply overpowering and combined nasty stuff with pretty good command of the strike zone, even earning a trip to the All-Star game. He was dealt to the Yankees in 2012 in a highly publicized trade, but that's when the train jumped the tracks. He had shoulder surgery that cost him two full seasons, he came back in 2014 but wasn't really the same. Still, there were flashes that it might still be there. By 2016, it looked like he might be ready to start fulfilling the promise of his rookie season, and he was again a hot commodity in the spring of 2017. Then elbow issues popped up and he underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2017, and then dealt with knee issues while recovering over the following 18 months. Jumping forward to this year, his velocity has not fully returned, but i's close enough, and he has taken a regular turn in the Twins' rotation (he's tossed 150 innings). Minnesota is a good place to hide a talented pitcher, so combined with the health risk, he could come at a very nice discount next spring.

Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox) – You've probably noticed that injuries tend to play a role in finding value on draft day. It's true. Healthy pitchers tend to post stats in line with their abilities, and they then sell for an appropriate price. However, pitchers like Eovaldi, who has pitched on and off through injuries, often end up with disappointing numbers, which can lead to owners shying away. Boston's entire pitching staff presents a lot of question marks. David Price has the name but he's loaded with health issues. Then there's Eduardo Rodriguez who likely will be overpriced, and Chris Sale who presents a whole smorgasbord of head scratchings. I won't even delve into their bullpen. Eovaldi has been on and off. They tried him as their closer, and he has made some abbreviated starts. It all adds up to him potentially being overlooked, and if healthy – there's always that risk – he could be a nice add to your staff.

Johnny Cueto (Giants) – These last two considerations are somewhat speculative as neither is back from the injured list just yet. Hopefully they will give us a few innings this month to help determine their prospects for next year. Cueto has always been a favorite, both because he can be very effective, and let's face it, he's fun to watch. He never was a "power" pitcher per say, rather befuddling batters with a delivery that consists of arms, legs, his back, his head and even his hair flying everywhere. Think a mix of Luis Tiant and maybe Fernando Valenzuela. Lots of movement, yet, he somehow manages to maintain good command of his pitches. He was clearly hurting early last season before finally conceding to his elbow woes and undergoing Tommy John surgery. He's actually made it back remarkably fast, and even though some back pain has delayed his return, he's still expected back this month. My main focus, in his case, will be velocity. It was way down early last year, but it reportedly has resurfaced.

Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks) – I'll make this a high risk with a potentially high reward selection. After a very promising 2017 season with the Cardinals, Weaver was a pretty hot commodity on draft day in 2018. He got out of sync, and it looked like every time he took a step toward getting things back in rhythm, he would take two steps back. Still, in watching him, you could see a load of upside. Apparently the Diamondbacks saw it, too. They acquired him this last offseason, and he opened 2019 in their rotation. He pitched exceptionally well (3.03 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP) until a forearm injury in late May. Here's the risky part. The injury could have been addressed with surgery, but they opted to take a conservative, nonsurgical path. The outcomes with that option have been mixed, and there's a possibility that altered mechanics designed to protect the elbow and forearm could result in reduced effectiveness. Let's see how he looks in a couple weeks.

There you have it – a few arms with a lot of positive indicators. They may or may not be fantasy staff aces, but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

The Mets' Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were both considerations for the target list. While I anticipate big seasons for them, my concerns are that Thor's name still carries a lot of draft day appeal, and, even more so, Stroman relies on excellent defense, which is an ongoing problem for the Mets.
I also wanted to include the Red Sox' Chris Sale, but I question whether this one off year will bring much of a discount. Sale clearly wasn't right for most of the season before finally being shut down. There will definitely be an injury risk involved, but if he comes at a reduced price, I have to take the chance.
The Dodgers' Walker Buehler will probably go at a price commensurate with his 2019 stats next year, but in his case, I would strongly consider paying that price and maybe a little more. Buehler is already a top 10 pitching candidate, and as scary as it sounds, we haven't seen his ceiling yet. I remain a major buyer.
I had the chance to watch Minnesota's Jose Berrios recently, and despite a very rough August, I still like what I see very much. Every pitcher goes through a bit of a downturn from time to time. In his case he wasn't quite sharp, with a little less spin, but he also had some bad luck. Keep him on your target list.
When the subject of Nats' starting pitchers comes up, the first names you hear are Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. That's appropriate, but many fantasy owners stop there, and don't pay much attention to a team's No. 3. In the case of Patrick Corbin, that's a mistake. Even a modest discount equates to value.
Here's one more potential flyer for next spring. Tampa Bay's Trevor Richards has the tools and he's now with an organization with a habit of turning raw skills into major league production. I don't see an ace, although with the Rays you never know, but he should come at a very buyer-friendly price on draft day.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Nationals' regular end-gamer Sean Doolittle has returned, and hopefully his knee is no longer barking. If the short break got him healthy, I expect him to finish strong. I remain a little concerned with the Dodgers' Kenley Jansen. A premier closer for a long time, his cutter just isn't the same. That said, they are using him a bit less to keep him fresh for the playoffs, and I think it will make a big difference. Keep a close eye on the Rangers' Emmanuel Clase. He has an electric arm, and Jose Leclerc just hasn't locked down the closer's gig. Earlier this week, the Mets blew a 10-4 ninth-inning lead, capped off when Edwin Diaz entered the save situation and allowed a double and a three-run homer. Games like this can be devastating and could push the team into trying Seth Lugo in upcoming save situations. Miami's Jose Urena notched his first save with an uneventful ninth inning against the Pirates, then promptly absorbed his first blown save the next night. I think he'll be okay. He fits the role and could be a nice add for fantasy owners looking for a boost in saves over the last month of the season. The flavor-of-the-week right now in Seattle appears to be journeyman Matt Magill, but don't write that in ink. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Sam Tuivailala at some point.