DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks
DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

Tuesday night's slate features warm weather and one pitcher who will draw the most attention. Should you spend on Clayton Kershaw? That's the question most will be asking, but if you don't want to, there are plenty other ways to go.

PITCHING

It won't be easy to deny Clayton Kershaw ($12,000) in Tuesday's slate as he appears to be on cruise control, striking out 19 in his last two starts, accruing more than 32 fantasy points in each. That's enhanced by a matchup with the Blue Jays, who own a .304 OBP against southpaws since the All-Star break. No one else has the consistency or upside to spend on. Shane Bieber ($11,600) can rack up strikeouts, but he's allowed two runs in each of his last four starts and the Mets have been solid against righties with a 20.6 K% and .341 wOBA in the last month. Domingo German ($10,800) could hit 30 fantasy points, yet he's allowed six homers in his last three and his main selling point is Oakland's 25.4 K% against righty arms over the last month.

Surprisingly, Sonny Gray ($9,700) may be one of the more popular options with at least 25 fantasy points in his last three starts. He should have a good floor against the Padres with their 26.7 K% since the middle of July. If you don't want to spend on Kershaw, Gray is probably the best move. No one else in this range has the same kind of upside, though Chris Archer ($9,300) and Michael Pineda ($8,900) have at least shown decent floors. Pineda has at least 21 points in his last two starts against the White Sox and they've been worst in the league over the last month against righty hurlers with a .274 wOBA and an extremely high 28.8 K%.

The GPP route is to roll with Spencer Turnbull ($7,700) as one of the biggest underdogs on the slate. I'm not sure I can join that train, as there are more reasonable picks. For starters, Aaron Sanchez ($6,800) has at least 17 fantasy points in four of his last five and the Tigers are still miserable with a 28.6 K% against righties in the last month. Of course, he'll be chalk as he's much cheaper than Turnbull. Brian Johnson ($6,500) is also an option, though a bit unreliable with a .481 OBP allowed to 79 righties faced. I'd still consider him because the Phillies have a 26.1 K% and .316 wOBA against lefties since the break. Steven Matz ($6,900) is also in the mix mostly because he's had some respectable outings going at least six innings in four of his last five. The matchup isn't great, but neither was his last one against Atlanta.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

There are some big favorites on the slate and all of them will get a decent amount of consideration. I'm not stacking the Astros because in addition to them already being popular, Turnbull has done a decent job limiting home runs, giving up 10 in 22 starts. It's fine to use lefties to bank off his .369 OBP allowed, but I'm not sure this is the spot to spend on Alex Bregman ($5,300). I'd rather focus on cheaper lefty bats like Michael Brantley ($4,800) or Josh Reddick ($3,100). It's a similar situation for the Yankees because Homer Bailey has allowed 16 homers in 24 starts, but also has a .367 OBP allowed to righty bats. I'd look at any of New York's cheaper righties with Aaron Judge ($4,000) suddenly a value play.

I'd probably go after the Dodgers before those teams since they're full of lefties and Sean Reid-Foley is allowing a .391 OBP to 69 faced. You could throw everything at Cody Bellinger ($5,300) or save on Matt Beaty ($4,100) and Corey Seager ($4,000). It may also be worth it to look at the Braves because Elieser Hernandez gave up four home runs in his last start, though I wouldn't use them in every lineup because they managed two hits in six innings against Hernandez two weeks ago. He's allowed 15 extra-base hits (9 HR) against 104 lefties faced so that's the way to go. For value, Matt Joyce ($3,800) and Brian McCann ($3,600) could be great options.

Kyle Freeland has better numbers on the road, but he's still allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven away from Coors. On the other side, Alex Young has fallen apart in his last two outings, allowing 13 hits and nine runs in 8.1 innings. Christian Walker ($4,300) may be the best value with a .476 OBP in his last 42 plate appearances against southpaws. Any righty is on the table in this game with Adam Jones ($4,300), Carson Kelly ($4,100) and Ian Desmond ($4,100) all at decent prices given the matchup.

STACKS

Twins vs. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox)

(OF Max Kepler - $4,700), (OF Eddie Rosario - $4,700), (SS Jorge Polanco - $4,500)

Lopez allowed eight runs and three homers in 3.2 innings in his one start against the Twins this year. He has decent overall numbers against the roster, but he's been terrible against lefty bats this year with a .375 wOBA allowed and 6.21 xFIP. This stack doesn't have the best recent numbers, but it has the most power for lefties and that's the best thing to build around. If you need to save money and prefer safety, Luis Arraez ($4,100), Marwin Gonzalez ($4,000), Ehire Adrianza ($3,800) and Jake Cave ($3,400) all have OBPs above .380 against righties since the break.

Cubs vs. Tyler Beede (Giants)

(1B Anthony Rizzo - $4,700), (SS Javier Baez - $4,500), (C Jonathan Lucroy - $3,500)

Stacking against Beede has been a great strategy in the last month as he's allowed at least four runs and eight total home runs in his last five starts. One of those came against the Cubs in which he gave up 10 hits and three homers in 5.2 innings. He's bad against both sides of the plate, though is allowing more power to righties (2.15 HR/9) and more hits to lefties (.383 OBP). Rizzo has a .454 OBP in his last 97 plate appearances against righty arms while Lucroy is there to save money.

Rangers vs. Jaime Barria (Angels)

(OF Shin-Soo Choo - $4,700), (2B Rougned Odor - $4,000), (3B/C Isiah Kiner-Falefa - $3,200)

I liked the matchup against Andrew Heaney better, but Barria will do having allowed seven homers in his last three outings. Instead of using Choo, I'd be fine with stacking value plays because there should be a lot of them due to injuries. Both Danny Santana and Nomar Mazara left Monday's game and that should lead to a cheaper lineup. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate. 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year.
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