This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
14 teams are included Friday in what looks to be a loaded pitching slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Justin Verlander ($11,400) leads five arms priced north of 10k. He'll face a Rangers' lineup for the fifth time this season, one that he's 3-0 against, allowing seven runs and 14 hits while fanning 27 in 24.0 innings. Factor in that four of those runs came in one start, and you should feel very confident in what you're buying.
Lefties Hyun-Jin Ryu ($11,000) and Patrick Corbin ($10,800) follow, and couldn't present more oppositely. Corbin hasn't faced the Braves this season, a lineup that ranks seventh in the league with a .336 wOBA and only 21.6 percent strikeout rate, potentially negating the fact that Corbin has fanned seven or more in five straight, resulting in at least 22.7 DraftKings points (DKP). Ryu, meanwhile, couldn't have a better opportunity. He gets a Marlins side that ranks second to last with a .287 wOBA against southpaws, and even if they strikeout only 20.6 percent of the time, Ryu figures to work deep into the contest with minimal at best damage allowed.
Jacob deGrom ($10,600) and Shane Bieber ($10,400) round out the upper echelon, and both are also in great spots. deGrom throws in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park against an offense that has only an 87 wRC+ and .171 ISO against righties. He's been worth 19.9 DKP or more in eight of his last nine to boot. Bieber is in similar form, being worth 14.6 DKP or more in six straight and eight of 10, and gets a Royals offense that has a meager 91 wRC+ and .164 ISO against righties.
Mike Minor ($9,900) flirts with the upper tier price-wise and gets a familiar Astros opponent against whom he's been decent, fanning 19 across 17.0 frames while allowing seven runs, somewhat bucking the Houston splits that decimate lefties. Marcus Stroman ($9,000) is set up well against a Tigers offense that ranks 29th with a .284 wOBA, 75 wRC+ and 26.1 strikeout rate. Southpaws David Price ($9,300) and Brendan McKay ($8,700) both face weak offenses. Price gets an Orioles lineup that fans 25.9 percent of the time while posting a .299 wOBA and 84 wRC+, while McKay sees a White Sox order that has only a .152 ISO while fanning 24.3 percent of the time.
There isn't much that personally excites in the second-tier Friday, but I think there's some merit in looking into San Francisco's Tyler Beede ($6,200). He's suddenly fanned 11 and induced 18 ground balls over his last 13.2 frames, and faces a Mets lineup that has a 46.5 percent ground ball rate and 22.4 percent fan rate. He fits brilliantly at this price, and while normally a target against, it's possibly Beede is coming into his own. J.A. Happ ($6,400) comes with a sound win probability against a slumping Rockies side.
Key Chalk/Value
With a sound group of top arms, this is an interesting slate for bats where there aren't a ton of incredibly obvious games to attack, with only New York-Colorado having a total of 11. The Yankees will be popular, and rightfully so, and I'll touch on them below.
Oakland-Minnesota, Seattle-LAA, Philadelphia-Pittsburgh, Arizona-Minnesota, and St. Louis-Cincinnati all have double-digit run totals. I'm personally not seeing that in Minnesota with Jake Odorizzi ($8,400) and Chris Bassitt ($8,000) facing off, though Oakland did get Odorizzi for five runs over three innings two weeks ago. I think I prefer the three National League matchups as games to target for stable top options as well as values.
Jake Arrieta ($6,600) and Jordan Lyles ($5,600) square off in Pittsburgh. Lyles is in a bad funk, allowing seven runs in each of his last two outings and at least three in every appearance since May 17. That makes the Phillies highly stackable, though their season-long numbers against righties aren't brilliant, which also makes them affordable. Scott Kingery ($4,600) has the best numbers, while Rhys Hoskins' ($4,500) form has his price down. Adam Haseley ($3,300) looks like a sound value option if he continues to start with Jay Bruce sidelined. Outside of the obvious in Pittsburgh's lineup (Josh Bell, $4,900), decent cheap buys include Melky Cabrera ($3,800), Colin Moran ($3,900) and Corey Dickerson ($3,800).
Milwaukee-Arizona is going to be costly to buy into, and righfully so, with Jhoulys Chacin ($5,500) and Taylor Clarke ($5,200) on the hill. A surging Ryan Braun ($4,700) may offer a little salary relief to Christian Yelich ($5,900) and Keston Hiura ($5,200). For Arizona, GPPers may be interested in Jake Lamb ($4,000) as a cost-efficient way to enter here over Eduardo Escobar ($5,200) and Ketel Marte ($5,400).
I haven't trusted Cardinal bats for most of the season, but with them putting Adam Wainwright ($8,200) on the mound opposite Tyler Mahle ($6,000), we're almost forced to buy into their offense here. Mahle has allowed three or more runs in seven of his last 10 starts. A white-hot Tyler O'Neil ($4,700) makes plenty of sense, though Mahle is allowing a .379 wOBA to lefties as opposed to a .279 wOBA to righties. As such, perhaps Tommy Edman ($4,300), Dexter Fowler ($4,000) and/or Kolten Wong ($3,700) bring a little more in terms of value.
Stacks
Yankees vs. Kyle Freeland (Rockies)
Aaron Judge (OF - $5,300), DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B - $4,700), Gary Sanchez (C - $4,600)
The Yankees are going to be incredibly chalky against Freeland, who has allowed five or more runs in three straight, 17 total in his last 11 frames. But New York doesn't have incredibly great numbers against lefties, so we're really just taking a great offense in general against a struggling arm. Judge does rake against southpaws, owning a .469 wOBA, 199 wRC+ and .286 ISO. LeMahieu is cooling, but still carries a .385 wOBA and 142 wRC+ in this spot, while Sanchez' power is the target, as he owns a .290 ISO.
Indians vs. Mike Montgomery (Royals)
Carlos Santana (1B - $4,900), Jordan Luplow (OF - $4,100), Roberto Perez (C - $4,100)
This game has a 9.5 run total, and with Bieber on the mound for the Indians, we aren't expecting the Royals offense to contribute much to that. Sure, we could use top Tribe names like Francisco Lindor ($5,100), but if we trust the lefty splits, we can find a value stack in this lineup. Santana can be the anchor, owning a .380 wOBA and 136 wRC+. But Luplow and Perez come cheaply, and are terrific against southpaws. Luplow carries a .449 wOBA, 182 wRC+ and .389 ISO into Friday, while Perez goes .392/144/.284.
Nationals vs. Julio Teheran (Braves)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $4,900), Juan Soto (OF - $4,600), Adam Eaton (OF - $3,700)
Teheran hasn't been bad of late, allowing two runs or less in three straight starts, and has solid numbers over his career against the Nats, but Washington is hot and the ball carries well in Suntrust Park, so I personally am buying, not selling, this offense. It all starts with Rendon and Soto, with the former owning a .408 wOBA, 151 wRC+ and .290 ISO against righties, while the latter goes .396/144/.229. Picking a third National is a little challenging, as the splits don't present well for the majority of the offense, and pricing reflects that. I like Eaton, whose .333 wOBA ranks fifth amongst his teammates, and his spot in the order gives him great scoring chances in front of Rendon and Soto if he can just reach the base.
