This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
The All-Star break provides a welcome rest from the everyday grind of a long baseball season. It's a chance to reflect on the stats and standings while they finally stay put for a few days. It's also a chance to get serious on trade discussions, as both sides can step back and think without losing playing time from the players they hope to acquire.
Digging into the stats at this point in the season is generally rewarding because things have more or less stabilized. Flukes are definitely still possible (they're even possible over the course of an entire season), so it's always worth looking into the underlying numbers, but a player's performance in those process stats is generally well deserved at this point.
Deserving a performance isn't the same thing as projecting to perform the same in the future, however, which is what makes fantasy baseball both difficult and rewarding. The players who feature in the "Fallers" section of this column are typically those who have genuinely performed poorly, not just those who haven't gotten the desired results despite good underlying numbers. But if a player has been good in the past, there's always a chance he could be good again.
Projection systems at this point in the season are still heavily influenced by past performance, even for players who have performed far differently this year. Guys who have been legitimately bad this season but who still project to be decent based on strong past performances can be some of
The All-Star break provides a welcome rest from the everyday grind of a long baseball season. It's a chance to reflect on the stats and standings while they finally stay put for a few days. It's also a chance to get serious on trade discussions, as both sides can step back and think without losing playing time from the players they hope to acquire.
Digging into the stats at this point in the season is generally rewarding because things have more or less stabilized. Flukes are definitely still possible (they're even possible over the course of an entire season), so it's always worth looking into the underlying numbers, but a player's performance in those process stats is generally well deserved at this point.
Deserving a performance isn't the same thing as projecting to perform the same in the future, however, which is what makes fantasy baseball both difficult and rewarding. The players who feature in the "Fallers" section of this column are typically those who have genuinely performed poorly, not just those who haven't gotten the desired results despite good underlying numbers. But if a player has been good in the past, there's always a chance he could be good again.
Projection systems at this point in the season are still heavily influenced by past performance, even for players who have performed far differently this year. Guys who have been legitimately bad this season but who still project to be decent based on strong past performances can be some of the best buy-lows if their current owners are frustrated enough. If you're looking to use the All-Star break to dive deeper into the stats to find some trade candidates to set you up for the second half, it's worth a look at the projections as well.
RISERS
Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals: We all already knew Scherzer was incredible. What made him the clear top pitcher on draft boards this offseason was that he could take a moderate step back with age and still be in the conversation for the best pitcher in the league. Instead of doing that, Scherzer has ignored aging curves and broken faces to post the best numbers of his career at age 34. He already set himself extremely high bars, but he's managed to post career bests in ERA (2.30), FIP (2.00), xFIP (2.80), strikeout rate (35.2 percent) and groundball rate (42.1 percent). Consider the following examples of just how dominant he's been over his last several starts:
- The last time he struck out fewer than nine batters was May 27.
- The last time he started and failed to record a win was May 27.
- The last time he walked more than two batters was May 17.
- The last time he allowed more than two runs was May 17.
- The last time he failed to record a quality start was April 20.
This guy is good.
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres: Tatis didn't take long to demonstrate why he earned an Opening Day callup, hitting .300/.360/.550 with six homers through 27 games before injuring his hamstring in late April. Since returning in early June, he hasn't missed a beat, posting an even better .352/.423/.685 line with eight homers in 28 games. His 162 wRC+ this season is highest among all shortstops with at least 200 plate appearances, and his 14 homers and 13 steals are each tied with Francisco Lindor, despite the fact that Tatis has played in 14 fewer games. It's worth noting, however, that it's taken a .419 BABIP to get him to his excellent batting line; he was a high BABIP guy in the minors thanks to his excellent contact ability, posting a career mark of .354, but no one can sustain a BABIP of .419. Tatis should still be quite good in the second half, but now might be a decent time to sell high.
Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays: Jansen was one of the more interesting sleepers at catcher this offseason, but he didn't come close to living up to the billing through the first two months of the campaign. After hitting .247/.347/.432 in 31 games as a rookie, he recorded an anemic .163/.243/.240 line in 42 games through the end of May. A more competitive team might have sent Jansen down, but he's rewarded the Blue Jays' faith, rebounding to a strong .286/.341/.595 line in his last 25 games. He's been particularly good in his last 12, hitting .386/.400/.932 with six homers. Don't expect those same fireworks in the second half, but the bar for catcher offense is quite low, and Jansen has the talent to clear it fairly easily. He's worth a look if a frustrated owner gave up on him after his awful start to the season.
Lourdes Gurriel, 2B/SS/OF, Blue Jays: Gurriel was sent down in mid-April after slumping to a .175/.250/.275 line through his first 13 games. Since returning as the Blue Jays' everyday left fielder in late May, he's been excellent, hitting .335/.382/.716 with 16 homers in 40 games. Gurriel was supposed to have above-average power as a prospect, and he'd shown some of it in the minors, but this level of pop is certainly unexpected. Statcast says Gurriel has overachieved, but he's managed to increase his barrel rate from 7.8 percent to 12.1 percent, and there's nothing wrong with a .523 expected slugging percentage, especially for a player eligible for both middle infield positions. He's settled into the third spot of the Blue Jays' order, sandwiched between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio, and his stock could increase as those two continue to develop.
Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Nola pitched like a Cy Young contender last season but was nowhere near that level to start the season, stumbling to a 6.84 ERA through his first five starts. He got things together over his next several outings, but a pair of poor starts in early June left his ERA at 4.89 through 15 starts. Just four starts later, he's cut more than a run off his ERA, which is now 3.74. He recorded an 0.61 ERA and an 0.74 WHIP over that stretch, striking out 29.8 percent of batters while walking just seven percent. Nola's peripherals this season still aren't quite up to his previous standards, particularly his walk rate, which is 9.3 percent after never coming in higher than 7.1 percent in each of his previous seasons, but he's clearly trending in the right direction, and his past record gives plenty of reason for confidence in the second half.
Liam Hendriks, RP, Athletics: Last season, the Athletics' closer struck out 31.8 percent of batters en route to a 0.78 ERA. This year, the team's closer owns a 1.24 ERA and a 31.5 percent strikeout rate. The name of the closer has changed, however, as Hendriks took the job while Blake Treinen battled a shoulder injury and pitched well enough that the role is now his to lose. Hendriks is a rather surprising name to claim the job, as he's only recorded an ERA less than 4.00 once in his eight-year career prior to this season, but his numbers this year certainly don't look like a fluke. He's added a tick to his fastball and is throwing it far more often (up from 52.1 percent last year to 66.9 percent this season), mostly at the expense of his sinker. That's led to a jump in strikeout rate of more than 10 points. Jumps like this at age 30 are quite rare, but relievers can often develop sporadically, so there's good reason to put a fair amount of faith in Hendriks in the second half.
FALLERS
Billy Hamilton, OF, Royals: Hamilton appears to have found the bottom limit of how poorly he can hit and still remain in the lineup. He still has his speed and his defense, but he heads into the break having sat four consecutive games after recording a .217/.284/.271 line. His 16 steals mean he's still contributing in the category fantasy owners drafted him for, but there's a significant risk that he'll record far fewer in the second half if he can't claw his way back into a starting role. It's not as if Hamilton has ever had a strong bat (his 79 wRC back in 2014 remains his full-season career high), but he's reached a new low this season, recording a hard-hit rate of 8.2 percent and a barrel rate of a nice round zero percent. The Royals have no long-term commitment to Hamilton beyond this season, so it won't be a surprise if he gets fewer opportunities in the second half.
Khris Davis, DH, Athletics: Davis featured in this column nearly a month ago thanks to some poor performances as he worked his way back from a hip injury. In the 22 games since that piece was published, things have only gotten worse, as he's slumped to a .225/.303/.362 slash line. He's been particularly poor over his last 14 games, posting a .525 OPS while managing just a single extra-base hit. He'll head into the break hitting .236/.305/.433, good for a 94 wRC+, numbers bad enough that it could be justified for him to lose some playing time in the second half. That batting average isn't far off from Davis' trademark .247 mark, but the loss of power is a real concern. His .302 ISO last season ranked second among qualified hitters, one spot below Mike Trout. His .196 mark this season ranks 80th, one spot below Freddy Galvis.
Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets: The Mets are on the hook to pay the 36-year-old Cano $81 million more the next four years. That doesn't directly affect fantasy owners, but those who drafted Cano certainly aren't getting what they expected from what was on average a ninth-round pick. The veteran has hit just .240/.287/360 with four homers in 65 games. He hasn't been noticeably better since returning from a trip to the injured list with a quadriceps injury, hitting .236/.286/.333 over 19 games. While he does have a few multi-hit games in recent days, he hasn't had an extra-base hit since June 25. Statcast does believe that he deserves a little better but remains thoroughly unconvinced by his performance, giving him an expected batting average of .259 and an expected slugging percentage of .404. Cano's age appears to be catching up to him, and there's little reason to expect a dramatically improved performance in the second half.
Blake Treinen, RP, Athletics: A mediocre start to the season saw Treinen lose out on his closing job while absent with a shoulder injury. The job didn't appear to be up for grabs early in the season, but Treinen couldn't hold off a charging Liam Hendriks, who enters the break with an incredible 1.24 ERA and a 31.5 percent strikeout rate, numbers which look positively Treinen-esque. While it would have been unwise to expect Treinen to repeat his 0.78 ERA from last season, falling all the way to a pedestrian 4.17 ERA is certainly unanticipated. It's hard to argue he deserves better when looking at his peripherals, however, as his strikeout rate has plunged from 31.8 percent to 22.7 percent while his walk rate has more than doubled from 6.7 percent to 14.1 percent. Treinen has the talent to reclaim his position should Hendriks falter in the second half, so there are certainly worse bounceback candidates, but he'll need to significantly improve his performance rather than simply wait for regression to kick in.
