Mound Musings: Potential Second Half Success Stories

For the past couples of weeks we have discussed the ramifications of the increased dependence on bullpens, reasons why many starting pitchers – well, actually relievers too – have struggled to keep the scores down, and we even talked about what the evolution of pitching could mean to fantasy scoring. What a long strange trip it's been, but we're not home yet. In fact we're only halfway through the season, so perhaps we can apply our observations to identify some pitchers poised to have better days ahead.

It's pretty obvious that homeruns, and to a slightly lesser extent, walks are the bane of pitchers today. Even the better arms are serving up long balls at a record pace. We used to call homeruns allowed, "feeding your gopher."  Well, folks, there are some seriously fat gophers out there! I won't name names, but several pop gun hitters have already surpassed their highest homerun total for a full season, and pitchers are eligible for shell shock insurance. Case in point, let's consider Justin Verlander. He's an elite starting pitcher, and he seems to be weathering the storm fairly well, but do you realize that 74 percent of the runs he has allowed this year have come via the homerun? That's incredible.

I'm fairly certain, with a generously juiced baseball, a postage stamp strikezone and hitters coming out of their shoes on every swing, ridiculous homerun totals (my apologies to the long ball fans) are here to stay for the foreseeable future. What's a pitcher to do? Some pitchers are actually doing reasonably well, so while some damage is inevitable, I looked for characteristics the more successful pitchers have in common. Then I evaluated pitchers who have struggled in the first half, seeking guys who closely match the success template. Here are the criteria:

• First and foremost, our candidates must have a minimum of three (four is better) quality pitches they can throw with confidence in any count. Hitters are sitting dead red, and they will ignore other offerings, waiting for a juicy fastball if allowed to do so. A good mix of pitches makes waiting problematic.
• They need to change speeds, taking something off and hopefully reaching back for a little extra when the situation calls for it. Balance is a hitters best friend, and changing speeds with a variety of pitches is the best way to keep the opposing hitters off balance. A softer curve and/or changeup is critical.
• Location. Location is everything. Our pitchers need control (being able to throw strikes) and command (being able to throw strikes to specific parts of the zone.). Avoiding walks and nonhomer hits minimizes the baserunners, and therefore the damage, when a homerun is hit. Solo homeruns have far less impact.
• Good – but not necessarily great – stuff. In general, the more successful pitchers today don't have radar-gun fastballs. They aren't throwing lollipops up there (low to mid 90s works), but velocity is not the cure all. I can assure you, when they find the guy who hits 110 mph, hitters will still hit it hard without the above.

That's the template. It seems pretty basic actually, but there are surprisingly few starting pitchers who match up. Below are a few guys who have displayed all the characteristics for extended periods in the past. They may need to make some adjustments, and they could be struggling with minor mechanical issues, but having done it before, there is reason to believe they can do it again. I'm cautiously optimistic with this approach.

Some pitchers who are candidates to improve significantly in the second half:

Aaron Nola (Phillies, currently 6-2 with a 1.45 WHIP and 4.55 ERA) – He gets the nod as my top pick to show significant improvement over the second half. He has the very good stuff, and a solid four-pitch mix that has served him well in the past. A workhorse, he can provide a lot of quality innings, but his command of the strikezone has been on and off all season, leading to more hits than innings (92 in 89 innings), a walk rate of 3.7/9 when it had not exceeded 2.6/9 in over three seasons, and allowing the 2019 increase in homeruns has been especially troublesome with those extra baserunners. Nola has generally displayed very good command of his whole repertoire in the past, but pitching behind in counts this season is allowing opponents to sit on the fastball. He shows frequent glimpses of the top-of-the-rotation Nola, and I think it's only a matter of getting everything back in sync before he gets on a roll.

Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks, currently 7-7 with a 1.26 WHIP and 3.93 ERA) – I'm walking a bit out on a limb with this one, but Kelly has given us hope for solid innings ahead. Throw out a about three really rocky outings in April and May (all on the road against the Cubs, Rays and Padres) where he somewhat surprisingly couldn't find the strikezone, and his season would be generating a lot of buzz. One key to my interest in Kelly is his previous experience pitching for the SK Wyverns in South Korea. That is a very hitter friendly league (think Triple-A PCL), and learning to pitch there given the volatility of offenses is a very good training ground. Kelly doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but he does have a quality mix of pitches, and he typically locates them very well. I feel he could be a bit of a sleeper to enjoy a solid second half.

Miles Mikolas (Cardinals, currently 5-8 with a 1.24 WHIP and 4.33 ERA) – It wasn't intentional, but Mikolas is the second pitcher to make this list after pitching professionally in the Pacific Rim. He spent a few seasons with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, which overall is a better league than where Kelly pitched in South Korea. The major takeaway here is the type of pitcher you often find in Japan. Overpowering arms are rare there, and hitters are much more likely to be selective, so you have to pitch well to be successful. Before going overseas, Mikolas was just another ho hum thrower with a pretty lively arm, but he learned a lot of the art of pitching in Japan. He has good stuff, a very nice repertoire, and when everything is in sync, as it was in his glittering 2018 season, he can pitch up, down, in and out with pinpoint command. The command of his secondary pitches has been spotty this year, but it's still there.

James Paxton (Yankees, currently 5-3 with a 1.43 WHIP and 4.34 ERA) – He was a borderline addition to this list for a couple reasons. He has the pitch mix, he generally changes speeds pretty well, and his stuff is very good, but the skeleton in his closet is inconsistency with command of the strikezone. Paxton has been haunted by nagging injuries throughout his career (he's pitching with left knee pain even now), which has made it difficult for the big southpaw to get and stay in a groove. However, when he does get healthy enough long enough to get all the pieces in sync, he can be a hitter's worst nightmare. There's no question, given his health history, this is a leap of faith – the ultimate high risk/high reward proposition – but if you like to roll the dice, you might as well take a shot at a difference maker. Paxton is usually good for a few weeks of domination each season, and we haven't seen that yet in 2019. The question you have to ask yourself is, do you feel lucky? Well, do you?

Trevor Bauer (Indians, currently 6-6 with a 1.14 WHIP and 3.55 ERA) – Some might ask how Bauer qualifies for this list. After all, his WHIP and ERA are pretty respectable. The list was compiled prior to his last start against the Royals with the intent of him being a "what have you done for me lately" target. For several years I was lukewarm on Bauer. He clearly had a load of raw ability, but he was an underachiever. Then, last season, someone flipped the switch, and he magically transformed into a very refined pitcher. He began 2019 with more of the same, but like all pitchers, he hit a rut and suffered through a handful of lackluster starts, prompting some owners to hop off the bandwagon. He might have recently been available at a discount in some leagues, but he also may have closed that window of opportunity with his start against Kansas City. Bauer is a student of the pitching art. It serves him well as long as he doesn't overthink and trusts the ability he has in abundance. He easily qualifies for a potentially huge second half under all four of our criteria. Just keep in mind, a 3.00 ERA is rarely the result of allowing exactly two runs every six innings pitched. Bauer's numbers will likely improve.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• One pitcher who won't be better in the second half is Oakland's Frankie Montas, who was slapped with an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a PED. He was enjoying a breakout season, and I seriously doubt the improvement had anything to do with the banned substance. Hopefully players will learn.
• The Reds (and many fantasy owners) were hoping Luis Castillo would take a step forward this season. I checked in on him, but I pretty much saw the same things that made me push away from the table in the spring. He has a big arm, but his off speed pitches can still be fringy, and his command is marginally better.
• I almost included CC Sabathia in the list of potential second half helpers. I just love the wily veteran who has learned to succeed with finesse since he's no longer the power pitcher he once was. His stuff is borderline now, but he gets extra points for savvy and cunning. A nice back-of-the-rotation option.
• The Pirates announced earlier this week that Jameson Taillon will finally begin a throwing program. He's been shut down for nearly two months, so it's good news. However, he's not out of the woods yet. It's likely time to see how he responds to a throwing regimen, but any sort of setback could mean the end of his season.
• A breakout season from the Rays' Tyler Glasnow didn't surprise me at all, but I didn't see a breakdown coming. He's on the shelf with a strained flexor tendon, and he recently suffered a setback that will see him shut down for three weeks, moving his return date to mid-August, in a best-case scenario.
• I am very anxious to see Dinelson Lamet's return from Tommy John surgery. I'm not necessarily endorsing him for this year – long layoffs often equal rust, and he needs to show that his changeup has come along and the new curveball is a viable weapon, but wow, his fastball and slider are electric.

Endgame Odyssey:

Horrible news for the Cardinals (and his fantasy owners), as Jordan Hicks has been diagnosed with a torn UCL. He is scheduled for Tommy John surgery, meaning we won't see him back in St. Louis until 2021. Carlos Martinez is pretty clearly their best option to close, and while John Gant also has been mentioned, Martinez is the guy to own. The Red Sox have six different pitchers with saves, and the picture remains cloudy at best. Earlier this week, Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes pitched the seventh and eighth innings, while Brandon Workman logged the save. Barring a trade for a genuine closer, this could easily be a guessing game all season. A rough week for the A's; not only did they lose Montas to a suspension, but closer Blake Treinen hit the injured list with a strained labrum. Shoulder injuries are notoriously unpredictable with regard to return times, so Liam Hendriks is a viable pick-up for fantasy teams seeking saves. Tampa Bay's Jose Alvarado was away tending to a personal matter in Venezuela and then Diego Castillo went down with a shoulder injury, leaving Emilio Pagan as the most likely closer until Alvarado returns, possibly next week. The Dodgers could use bullpen help in front of Kenley Jansen, and the Pirates' Felipe Vazquez is reportedly on their radar. Vazquez owners might consider Kyle Crick as a handcuff.