Collette Calls: What Lies Ahead for These Hitters

Last week, I looked at some pitchers who should have better days ahead than their current numbers showed. Most made me look immediately smart, including Eduardo Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Rich Hill and Freddy Peralta. Martin Perez; not so much. 

This week, I want to look at hitters whose results are outpacing their expected results, why that is happening and what that means for the the coming months.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has an impressive .329 average and a .603 slugging percentage, but there are huge differences between those actual numbers and expected numbers. His rankings in the expected categories are not that great:

He has just six infield hits, which was fewer than I expected given his sprint speed, but that .426 BABIP is what dreams are made of. His actual numbers are 57 percent above league average, while his expected stats are right about league average. What are the odds a rookie with a high strikeout rate can continue to outperform his expected numbers all season? Owners in reset leagues should be shopping high, but it is understandable that keeper league owners will want to ride this one out. I cannot blame you.

Daniel Murphy should be enjoying the spoils of playing in Coors Field and the expansive outfield, and he is in a way. The .273 batting average is well off the pace we all thought he would be at this year competing for the batting crown, and he is getting punished on the road.

At home, he has hit .310, but his expected batting average has been .244. That is how we would expect Coors to help him out. On the road, he has hit an abysmal .231 with an even worse .197 expected batting average. The batted ball profile does not instill any confidence that better days are ahead. 

Charlie Blackmon, meanwhile, has flourished at Coors. He has hit .452 at home this year, but .247 on the road. His expected batting average is nearly identical to his actual on the road, but there is a 114-gap between those two numbers at Coors. If you think that number is large, how about the 312-point gap between his .983 home slugging percentage and his actual .671 slugging percentage? Let's be real: even his expected numbers are ridiculously good, so it just doesn't matter what happens to this spaz:

Eduardo Escobar has a 51-point gap in his batting average numbers and a 127-point gap in his slugging percentage numbers. He has slugged nearly .600 at home, with an expected figure of .458, while on the road he rings in at .533 and .413. He has hit for a better average on the road than he has at home and his overall, his expected percentiles do not back up his current level of production.

This is the the profile of a hitter who could have quite a tumble this summer and one you should cash in on while the getting is good. 

Bryan Reynolds is making a serious early case for NL Rookie of the Year, and went 3-for-4 with a three-run home run on Wednesday. He is now hitting .362 with a .989 OPS. The large gap between his expected stats and his actual stats, both in batting average and slugging percentage, are notable, but not terrible. Reynolds can hit, and the .302 xBA backs that up. The .437 xSLG is not terrible, but you didn't pluck him from the FAAB pile when 17 Pittsburgh outfielders were injured for his power. 

Reynolds is a hitter and the stick should keep him in the lineup in some way, shape, or form, even if the homers level off to doubles long term. This is not a bat you take out of the lineup.

Lastly, David Peralta is actually overperforming more on the road than at home. He has a 151-point difference between his road SLG and xSLG, larger than his overall. His .290 batting average and .502 slugging percentage is right in line with what he did last year, but the slugging percentage is more fueled on doubles this year. That should get your attention given everyone else is turning doubles into homers this year with the "live" baseball:

You should not be holding out hope for a return to 30 homers for Peralta. His average exit velocity is down nearly two miles an hour off last year's rate, and his hard contact rate has dropped seven full percentage points off his 2018 level. The average and slugging percentage look like last year, but the indicators behind it says it is unlikely to last and a power resurgence is not in the books.