Mound Musings: Where Is Pitching Headed in Fantasy Baseball?

Last week, I discussed a key aspect in the evolving nature of pitching in MLB – the impact of a deep and effective bullpen on playoff aspirations, and of course, to some extent, how those better bullpens can affect your fantasy team. This week, I think it might be interesting to take the exploration of this evolution to the next level. Let's dust off the crystal ball and ask where things are headed in the future, and what this direction might mean to scoring the pitching categories in the fantasy game. I'll start by saying I hope this can be an interactive discussion. Share your opinions. I only ask that you do so respectfully. Certainly, offer your thoughts even if you disagree with me or someone else who commented, just please play nice.

My primary premise for this discussion is a nagging concern that traditional starting pitchers could potentially go the way of the dinosaurs in a few years. I see fewer and fewer 220-innings guys, and when this generation of starting pitchers is gone, will the next generation be made up mostly of "openers" and "primary relievers" mixed in with long men, righty and lefty specialists, and a committee of closers? If this happens, and it's already happening to some extent, the impact on scoring categories in fantasy will become more significant. Building a quality fantasy pitching staff could be challenging at best. Okay, t's already challenging, but it could be much more so.

Looking at the basic five scoring categories: wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and saves, you'll have to try to predict who might be pitching in the fifth inning to qualify for wins; balance the innings pitched by poor starting pitchers compared to better (or at least more protected) relief pitchers to attempt to maintain a competitive ERA and WHIP; try to find at least a few innings eaters to hopefully pile up a fair numbers of strikeouts; all while being ever-vigilant in keeping up with the closers-of-the-week for teams that simply don't have a reliable and consistent ninth-inning guy. If you play in a league that counts quality starts and/or holds, the challenges are compounded.

I don't think traditional starting pitchers will ever disappear completely – at least I hope not – but as there are fewer of them, with today's scoring categories, their price tags on draft day will likely skyrocket. Just imagine, what will it cost to draft a Justin Verlander or a Max Scherzer or a Trevor Bauer (pitchers capable of 200-plus quality innings, almost always around to qualify for a win and likely to accumulate a load of strikeouts) when you can count their numbers without removing your shoes and socks? If you don't own one or two, it could be very difficult to compete. Hopefully, your kids and grandkids won't see a new wing in Cooperstown dedicated to "They used to call these starting pitchers," back in the old days. Maybe the pendulum will swing back before an extinction occurs.

So, let's dig in and look at some scoring category ideas. Remember, these are just food for thought and perhaps will function as conversation starters. If the counting stats become more diluted, and contributors become more and more scarce, maybe there could be some combination of categories. What if wins, saves and holds were one category? Maybe they could even be weighted – three points for a win, minus two points for a loss, two points for a save and minus one point for a blown save, and just a single point for a hold. I have always been a proponent of quality starts, other than the fact that many "quality" starts don't exactly fit my definition of quality. Maybe they are added into the mix somehow as well. 

I don't think I would want to change ERA and WHIP. I believe they are the truest reflectors of good pitching, albeit the bad bullpens have helped trash my ERA this season, as a large number of runs allowed has been the gift of relievers allowing almost every inherited runner to score. These days you almost have to take into account the relievers who might follow a starter to the mound when determining that starter's value. However, what about strikeouts? If fewer and fewer pitchers will be generating big strikeout numbers, and I do feel strikeouts are both fun and important, would we be wise to use K/9 as a scoring category rather than just total strikeouts? It could, at least theoretically, increase the value of quality, even noncloser, relief pitchers.

MLB has done what it can to encourage offense, purportedly to increase fan appeal, and whether fans like it or not, the offense has become a focus. In the past couple of weeks, two teams combined for a record 13 home runs in a single game, and then the Padres and Rockies broke the record by scoring 92 runs in a four-game series. That's an incredible 11.5 runs per game, per team. Okay, it was in Coors Field, but still. I used to shoot for an ERA below 3.20, hoping to get below 3.00 with a little luck. Now maintaining an ERA below 4.00 requires a pretty special pitching staff. And, finding the pitcher's to accomplish that is a lot more difficult than it sounds.

What's your formula for fielding a strong pitching staff given today's typical scoring categories combined with the explosion of offense? First and foremost, for me, I focus even more than ever on WHIP. I think the home runs are going to haunt pitchers for the foreseeable future, so I look for pitchers I feel are best equipped to keep runners off base, minimizing the damage of those long balls. I need to see three, or preferably more, solid and consistent pitches to make the pitcher less hittable. Strikeouts are a big bonus, of course. Walks have always been dangerous, but throwing strikes is imperative now. A couple of walks can quickly turn a home run into a meltdown in progress. Command, command, command. Up and down, in and out, if it looks like a strike, the hitter will swing, but if not, it's what is called an "easy take" and just provides a favorable hitter's count. I find myself needing to be pickier than ever. And, given the changing landscape of major leagues mounds, what scoring changes do you see coming?

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Dodgers' pitchers have weathered the offensive storm better than most. Case in point is the finally healthy Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's not a true power pitcher – most of their arms aren't – but he throws four pitches, at different speeds, to all segments of the strike zone. Again, that seems to be the best formula for success.
• Rumors continue to circulate that Matthew Boyd could be dealt prior to the trade deadline. While he isn't the big arm, big name starter typically thought of as the ideal addition to a contender, his steadily improving command is probably catching the eye of playoff hopefuls. A better team makes him more appealing.
• I am applying my evolving template looking for pitchers who present a very good chance of showing marked improvement, and Miles Mikolas keeps coming up. He has the repertoire with solid but not really overpowering stuff, he can effectively change speeds, and his command seems to be gradually returning.
• The Blue Jays are now in full rebuild mode, and that makes it even more likely Marcus Stroman will change uniforms in the coming weeks. I have always liked Stroman even though I sometimes get nervous with extreme groundball pitchers. These days, keeping the ball in the park makes more sense than ever.
• Hopefully Patrick Corbin has rediscovered his groove. After a handful of starts with too many sliders being "easy takes" and too many fastballs drifting into the middle of the zone, he was very sharp in his last outing against Philadelphia. He can be dominant when everything is clicking, and a strong run is possible.
• Blake Snell has been wildly – in some cases literally – inconsistent this year, and never was that more evident than in his last start against the Yankees. He broke his toe in April, and although he returned in just 10 days, I think his mechanics have been out of synch since. He's still a good one, so be patient.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Angels pulled the chute on Cody Allen following his season-long struggle to throw strikes. Given the state of most bullpens, some team is likely to bring him on board, but his days of pitching the ninth inning are probably over. Cincinnati's bullpen has been relatively successful this season, but that doesn't mean they are completely predictable. Raisel Iglesias probably remains their primary closer, but Michael Lorenzen logged a pair of recent saves (he has four) and I think Amir Garrett could also get an occasional shot with the right matchups. The division-leading Twins appear to be sorting things out with the now healthy Taylor Rogers seeing an increasing percentage of their save chances. I think he's pretty clearly their best option barring an acquisition prior to the trade deadline. In Toronto, closer Ken Giles is reportedly progressing in his recovery from elbow inflammation and should return soon. Most probably haven't noticed with the lack of save chances, but Daniel Hudson may have earned more set-up work going forward. Wade Davis has returned to the Rockies after a stay on the injured list. His recent results have been pretty ugly, but I think that's a product of catching hot offenses and Coors Field. His job is probably not in jeopardy. Craig Kimbrel made his 2019 debut pitching for Triple-A Iowa and he looked good. His arrival on the north side of Chicago is likely imminent, bumping Pedro Strop back into a set-up role. In Atlanta, Luke Jackson is a competent set-up man but is miscast as a closer, and A.J. Minter wasn't the answer either, which leads me to believe the team is the favorite to land a closer at (or before) the trade deadline.