The Z Files: Changing Expectations, Part 2

As a follow-up to last week's episode discussing hitters moving the most within my ranks since draft season, here are 10 pitchers I've adjusted, five higher and five lower. The criteria are simple: they're all relevant in mixed leagues without immediate injury concern.

Thumbs Up

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

There are indicators Castillo is outpitching his peripherals. Specifically, his xFIP is 3.17 while his SIERA is 3.59, as compared to an actual 2.38 ERA. However, even if he pitches to his estimators, that's an improvement over what was expected after last season's disappointing campaign. Additionally, he's ramped up his strikeouts, the pitching equivalent to homers for hitters as punchouts influence ERA, WHIP and wins the same way homers affect runs, RBI and batting average. The righty's swinging strike rate is a career best, along with a 60 percent groundball rate. Personally, I classify groundball rate as a trait, not a skill since its utility is contextual. Considering Castillo works about half his games in the Great American Ballpark, more grounders are desired. Lost in Castillo's strong start is a high walk rate. He can mitigate impending regression with better control. This will serve to help him work deeper into games, as he's averaging about 5 2/3 innings per outing, a little low for a real-life or fantasy ace.

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

Last week, I rued making a couple of subjective overrules of my system. Add Snell to the list. My concern was more narrative than numbers. Some may accuse me of trying too hard to be the smartest guy in the room, and perhaps they're right. That said, I get paid for my opinion, and so long as I support it with sound analysis, I'm doing my job. Here's what I wrote about Snell in the spring:

There are a few things in play, all revolving around walk rate. History has taught us that when a pitcher improves his control, they often give back some of the gains the following campaign. While it's fair to point out Snell demonstrated better control post-break in 2017, there's still a reason to be wary he'll maintain 2018's level. Like most pitchers, Snell is more effective without men on base, especially in scoring position. Last season, Snell posted a low .241 BABIP despite a hard contact rate a little above league average. This suggests some good fortune. The repercussion is fewer baserunners, hence better skills. That is, there's a cascade effect. Fewer hits results in fewer free passes. Come 2019, assuming a normalized hit rate, it's fair to expect a slight uptick in walks. More ducks on the pond obviously means more runs. Snell still projects to an outstanding ERA, just look for regression to last season's estimators.

On paper, the logic is sound, but was it necessary? I'm a process over outcomes guy and I'll obstinately contend the process was sound. As it turns out, Snell's BABIP has regressed, currently a high .316, but his walks have plummeted to 6.4 percent. Adjustments have been made. I'll have my crow baked with a side Caesar salad, no dressing, lemon on the side.

Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays

I have a feeling I may regret re-adjusting Morton in the other direction. To set the stage, here's what I wrote during draft season:

All things considered, Tampa is a good landing spot for Morton as Tropicana Field plays very pitcher friendly (as did Minute Maid) though he now has to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox. Morton's calling card used to be inducing an extreme number of grounders with a high strikeout rate. The growing number of fly balls may actually help in the spacious Trop. Durability is an issue, it's not often a starter posts his first 30-start season when he's 34. That said, Morton has started at least 20 games in five of the last six seasons with 55 combined the last two years. Tampa does a good job managing their rotation so Morton should be protected from disasters. Allow for fewer innings and some age-related decline and you're still left with a front-end rotation mainstay, piling up punch outs.

I was optimistic, but still behind the curve. The primary reason was his ERA estimators were mid-threes, above his 2018 3.13 mark. I tend to project towards the estimators.

So far in 2019, Morton is again blowing away his xFIP and SIERA, bettering them by over a run with his actual 2.65 ERA. His walk and strikeout rates are both higher than last season, which is in line with park factors, so I'm not overly concerned about a bump to an 11 percent walk rate, but it's worth watching.

My algorithm uses an ERA index, comparing expected to actual. As the season progresses, the initial level gets adjusted based on the in-season mark. The original level fleshed out luck. However, the in-season index is introducing the luck Morton is incurring, lowering his projected ERA below the in-season estimators.

Some will argue Morton has been lucky for well over a season, so maybe it isn't luck. That's possible, as I've always said the ERA estimators are formulated based on information available at the time and perhaps there's an element of Morton's profile not yet captured. However, I also like to say regression doesn't punch a time clock. Sometimes it rears its ugly head right away, other times in lays in the weeds, striking later, often the following season. That is, Morton is lucky until he isn't.

The adjustment isn't huge, but it's enough to warrant discussion. I'm just leery the regression monster will shake Morton and my mood will turn salty.

Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers

Boyd's positive case has been well-documented, so there's no need to belabor. He's missing more bats, exhibiting better control and keeping the ball in the yard. Boyd still throws five pitches, but he's only sparingly mixing in his sinker, curve and change, relying heavily on his four-seam fastball and improved slider. There's nothing in the number to suggest a downturn.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers

Let's get something straight. As good as Ryu has been, from the keyboard of Lord Obvious to your eyes, his 96 percent left-on-base mark is unsustainable. The underlying skills are a different story, though Ryu's 1.9 percent walk rate is even low for him. He has only one place to go, and that's up.

Ryu's K/9 is down, but his K% is the same as last season. This is a result of fewer walks. In a weird way, he could fan more hitters if his control waned just a bit.

Big picture, Ryu is doing what he usually does: crush it between IL visits. Doing so well pushes one towards a rabbit hole, or perhaps wishful thinking he'll avoid the injury bug that usually plagues the southpaw. Still, this is an arm you want, especially if you either faded pitching or are hurting because your ace is one of the several who are underproducing or hurt.

Thumbs Down

Collin McHugh, Houston Astros

McHugh comes with the caveat it's unknown if he was pitching with the sore elbow that currently has him sidelined. Heading into the season, once it became clear McHugh would be breaking camp in the rotation, I adjusted expectations accordingly. Specifically, the rule of thumb is baseline skills decline about 17 percent when a reliever transitions to a starter. A such, I made those adjustments, rendering numbers worse than those when McHugh worked out of the bullpen, but still fantasy friendly. The bottom line is his strikeouts did not translate as expected and even if he remained in the rotation, his projected ratios for the rest of the season would not have been as rosy.

Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox

After issuing an uncharacteristically high 17 walks in his first 31 frames, Porcello has doled out just a pair in his last 25 2/3 stanzas, so at least that part of his game is back on track. However, his strikeouts are down, and home runs are up. Fewer whiffs are always alarming, but even more so when they come hand in hand with more long balls. To that end, Porcello's ground ball rate is down to where it was in 2017 when homers were also a problem. Additionally, Porcello's average fly ball rate is in the danger zone. That is, adding another five or 10 feet from the juiced ball adds more homers to his total relative to hurlers with a lesser average fly ball distance.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Just as Nola appears to be turning the corner, he hits another speed bump. Analysts more adept than I using the newfangled next-level metrics are struggling to come up with the answer. Painting things with a broad brush, Nola isn't as sharp as last season and is paying for it. Maybe there's some bad luck with clusters of hits and timing of homers, but the bottom line is he's not as fine with his command as last year. His stuff is good but not dominant, so he has a smaller margin of error. Maybe the switch flips and everything returns to normal, but matching last season's effort the rest of the way will be nearly impossible.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians

Admittedly, it's surprising to me Carrasco is on the list. This speaks towards the formulaic nature of my rankings and not being intimate with the seasonal numbers of every major-league player to date. Also, I don't have Carrasco on any of my rosters.

A latent reason he makes the list is my preseason expectations likely exceeded those of others. To wit, here's my spring profile:

Carrasco was 2018's poster boy for ignoring surface stats and focusing on skills. After working on July 6, Carrasco was sporting a disappointing 4.28 ERA. However, his WHIP was a tidy 1.18 and he fanned 103 in 96.2 innings. His 3.62 FIP and 3.49 xFIP screamed for patience; better days lay ahead. After posting a 2.45 ERA the rest of the year, Carrasco concluded the campaign with a respectable 3.38 mark. His 2.94 FIP and 2.90 xFIP were predictably better, as he couldn't mitigate all the misfortune incurred to open the season. After amassing 200 and 192 innings the past two seasons, I'm relieving Carrasco of the injury-prone label. There's little indication the other teams in the AL Central will be appreciably better next summer, so he'll enjoy another soft schedule. While the market respects Carrasco, I have him slotted about five starters earlier than the early drafters. If I don't land on one of the other aces, I'll be thrilled to "settle" for Carrasco.

For the record, this was authored well before the Twins fortified their lineup. That said, things haven't worked out as planned. But here's the thing. He's in almost the exact situation as last season with a bloated ERA compared to his estimators. He's fanning more and walking fewer. The driving force behind this year's woes are an inflated .344 BABIP and a ballooned 17% HR/FB mark. Both should regress, but the landing point still places Carrasco a little worse than my initial expectations. That said, some of the reason is my aggressive ranking in March. Of all the "Thumbs Down", I'd aim to buy low on Carrasco.

Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians

Blame it on me, I gave Bauer the kiss of death. This was authored exactly one month ago:

Bauer is one of the few starting pitchers fortunate enough to be devoid of a disaster outing and avoid injury. His worst effort is a 5 2/3 inning stint against the Tigers, allowing four runs on ten hits. Everything else is two or fewer runs. His actual 2.20 ERA is low compared to a 3.42 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA, but even if the dominant right regresses towards those estimators, he's one of the most skilled pitchers in the league, likely to be in contention for AL Cy Young honors if he can stay healthy.

The above is still true. However, since I tapped it out on my keyboard, Bauer has inexplicably walked 22 while serving up seven homers in the ensuing 38 frames. Fortunately, he's catching a break with a low .239 BABIP.

A self-admitted tinkerer, maybe Bauer is thinking too much and just needs to let his natural talent show the way. Even so, it's impossible to ignore the recent struggles so his rest-of-season expectation have been tweaked accordingly.