FanDuel MLB: Thursday Breakdown

FanDuel MLB: Thursday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Thursday is a little bit of an odd day with the early slate (four games) kicking off at 12:10 p.m. EDT and the main slate of games (only two games) starting at 8:10 p.m. EDT. As usual, let's look at the main slate of games despite us having limited options to use. 

PITCHING

For cash and GPPs, the conversation for a starting pitcher begins with the obvious: Boston's David Price ($9,800). Of the four pitchers, he has the safest floor and ceiling and should have an ownership of at least 80 percent in cash games. There's no reason to risk using someone else. That mistake alone could easily be the deciding factor in cash. The White Sox's wOBA against lefties (.316) and strikeout rate (24.3 percent) are around league-average. 

The other two viable options to consider for GPPs are the Angels' Tyler Skaggs ($8,300) and the Blue Jays' Aaron Sanchez ($7,200). The ceiling looks a little better with Skaggs, who has 36 and 41 fantasy points in two of his first four starts, while Sanchez looks to have the better floor. Meanwhile, Sanchez has at least 27 fantasy points in five of his first six starts. Toronto has a league-average 24.6 percent strikeout rate against lefties, but its .288 wOBA against that handedness is the seventh-worst mark in the league. The Angels strike out the least of anyone in baseball against right-handed pitching (15.5 percent), so Skaggs is the better option if forced to choose between the two. 

The fourth pitcher taking the mound is White Sox righty Lucas Giolito ($6,900). While the cheap price point is nice, he's coming off a two-week layoff (hamstring injury), and it's hard to imagine him throwing 90-100 pitches in this one. The matchup is tough: The Red Sox are still a potent lineup, and the likely pitch count probably takes the bonus points for a quality start off the table. 

KEY VALUES/CHALK

It makes sense in cash games to start your team with Mike Trout ($5,000), even though he's the most expensive hitter on the slate. Trout has reached base safely in all 28 games he's played this season and still has the deadly power-speed combo. 

For a cheaper outfielder, look no further than Randal Grichuk ($2,900). The Blue Jays masher had a .342 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season, and that number ballooned to .396 when on the road. 

Shortstop is in a unique spot as each of the four starters is at least $3,200, essentially forcing a fair amount to be spent at the position. The most attractive option if using a lineup fading David Price is the White Sox's Tim Anderson ($4,300). Despite being $700 cheaper than Trout, he actually averages more than 1.5 more fantasy points per game this season than him. While he's cooled off of late after a scorching-hot start to 2019, Anderson already has six home runs and gone a perfect 10-for-10 stealing bases so far this season. 

It seems like a matter of time before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,200) breaks out and has a huge game, and that could happen against Skaggs. The Blue Jays mega-prospect has reached base safely in his first four games since being called up and has shown good patience with three walks in 17 plate appearances. He also should hit in a good RBI spot -- cleanup or in the five hole -- against the lefty.

Eric Sogard ($4,000) has been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays at second base, but he's sick and will probably be left out of the lineup with a lefty-on-lefty matchup. Alen Hanson ($2,000) likely will take his spot in the lineup, although he'll probably hit low in the order. Despite getting his price jacked up with his solid post-callup performance, Michael Chavis ($3,800) looks like the pick in cash games. He's hit the ground running and has a good draw against Giolito. All of the Red Sox bats should be on the radar, and using them as a stack even in cash is a good idea. 

There are two good options at the C/1B spot, and it's probably worth considering both players in the same lineup (one at C/1B, one at UT). Boston's Mitch Moreland ($3,400) and the Angels' Justin Bour ($2,700) both have the lefty-versus-righty matchup and should take advantage of that split. Moreland has a career .334 wOBA against right-handed pitching while Bour's mark sits at .354. 

STACKS

Red Sox at Lucas Giolito (White Sox) 

Mookie Betts (OF - $4,700), J.D. Martinez (OF - $4,000), Rafael Devers (3B - $3,300), Moreland 

The Red Sox will likely be the most popular stack of the night. Figuring out the right combination of players will be key: Using Chavis and Xander Bogaerts ($3,900) with two of the players mentioned above could be the way to go. Boston should be able to get after Giolito for a crooked number in this one. 

White Sox vs David Price (Red Sox) 

Anderson, Jose Abreu ($4,000), Yoan Moncada (3B - $3,800), Yonder Alonso (1B - $2,700) 

This will likely be the least popular stack which is makes a case for why it should be used as a contrarian play. David Price gave up four earned runs in his first two starts (throwing only six innings in each game), and it could end up being the relievers who surrender the runs given the Red Sox pitching woes this season. Either way, the Pale Hose have lefty killers, providing a case to hedge against Price in GPPs.

Angels vs Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays) 

Trout, Bour, Albert Pujols (1B - $3,000), Andrelton Simmons (SS - $3,200) 

Simmons is a rare shortstop who has been hitting in the cleanup spot and has been delivering. He has at least 9.2 fantasy points in six straight games and has scored fantasy points in 15 straight games. Pujols obviously is no longer one of the best hitter's in the game but still has upside: He has five games of at least 21.7 fantasy points this season. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin Payne plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: kevinccp, Draft Kings: kevinccp, Yahoo: kevinccp.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
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