Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Not to toot my own horn, but the Barometer has been rather prescient in recent weeks, predicting the promotions of Carter Kieboom and Griffin Canning.  Just call me the Bran Stark of the minor leagues.  Who else could we see making the jump in the coming weeks?  Yordan Alvarez of the Astros leaps off the page, slashing .347/.443/.867 with 11 home runs and 29 RBIs in just 21 games at Triple-A Round Rock.  The Astros will simply have to find a place for him soon if he keeps raking like this.  Another soon-to-be big leaguer is Brendan Rodgers, who is hitting .405 with three home runs and nine RBIs in his last 10 games for Triple-A Albuquerque.  Homer Simpson would be proud.  Garrett Hampson has struggled at second base for the Colorado Rockies, and Ryan McMahon has also slowed since a hot start.  Add in the checkered injury history of Daniel Murphy, and Rodgers could make his MLB debut before summer.

Who else has seen their stock move in recent weeks?  Let's take a gander in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Grayson Rodriguez, P, BAL – Perhaps no pitcher has seen his stock rise more over the early part of the season than Rodriguez, the 19-year-old righty who has tormented Low-A through three starts.  Rodriguez was a first-round pick in last year's draft and has not disappointed in his first taste of full-season ball.  Rodriguez has a 0.54 ERA and 28:6 K:BB in 16.2 innings.  Rodriguez has a mid-90s fastball with great late life, along with a wipeout slider, emerging changeup and even a curveball thrown into the mix.  He has the prototypical build of a frontline starter at 6-foot-5, 220, despite still being a teenager.  If he can continue to display stellar command, Rodriguez will not be much of a secret much longer.

Deivi Garcia, P, NYY – Another hurler on the rise is Garcia, who also at 19 is having his way with older competition.  At High-A, Garcia has a 3.08 ERA and 33:8 K:BB in 17.2 innings.  Garcia's strikeout numbers jump out immediately, and those numbers square with last year's stats in which he had 105 punchouts in just 74 innings across three levels.  Garcia's curveball has elite spin rate, and his fastball is up there too.  He could be pegged for Double-A soon, but the Yankees are likely still allowing Garcia to build up his arm strength.  Despite pitching in the minors since 2016, Garcia has just 200 professional innings under his belt, and those 74 innings in 2018 were a career high.  As such, expect the Bronx Bombers to be cautious with Garcia, who also has more of a Pedro Martinez build at a mere 5-10, 165.

Josh Naylor, OF, SD – Naylor has always shown the ability to hit for average and command the strike zone, but his power was called into question as he made his way up the ranks.  A powerful start at Triple-A El Paso could quiet some of the doubters, and even yield an eventual promotion to the show.  After hitting a career-high 17 home runs in 2018 at Double-A, Naylor already has seven dingers in 21 games, taking advantage of the friendly hitting confines of the Pacific Coast League.  Five of those home runs have come in the last 10 games, with the 21-year-old lefty hitting .366 over that span.  Naylor is slightly blocked at the big-league level by the likes of Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes, though those two have not exactly been scalding the ball out of the gate.  Still, Naylor's impressive start won't go unnoticed, and he could add some production to a San Diego squad in the bottom half of baseball in average, total bases and RBIs.

Kris Bubic, P, KC – The 21-year-old southpaw has carved up Low-A, which should probably come as no surprise for the polished Stanford product.  Bubic has a standout 45:7 K:BB in 29 innings at Low-A Lexington.  Batters are hitting a dismal .159 against him.  The Royals can be conservative with their pitching prospects, but it is clear that Bubic should be bumped up at least to High-A.  Bubic's fastball sits in the low-90s, but he effectively uses the pitch in a variety of ways.  He also boasts a curveball and a changeup, both which can be plus offerings.  Bubic was considered nearly a finished product coming out of college with limited upside, but perhaps he was pigeon-holed a bit prematurely.  He knows how to pitch, and the surprising strikeout rate to start his big-league career should turn some heads.

CHECK STATUS

Monte Harrison, OF, MIA – Unfortunately for Harrison, he will always be considered part of the lackluster return from the Milwaukee Brewers in the trade for Christian Yelich.  That said, the toolsy Harrison is off to a fine start at Triple-A in 2019, slashing .306/.411/.581 with four home runs, nine RBIs and three steals.  Harrison has continually shown 20-20 ability, and that power/speed combination was what made him a coveted prospect in the first place.  Still, the improvement in strike-zone recognition and contact also bears noting.  Harrison drew just 44 walks in 136 games last season.  He already has 10 walks in 16 games in 2019.  Strikeouts remain a problem for Harrison, as he already has 25 strikeouts over those 16 games.  Nevertheless, if he hits closer to .306 as opposed to the .240 he hit in .2018, the strikeouts will be viewed as less of a problem.  Harrison is never going to be Yelich, but that doesn't mean he can't be a part of the future for the Marlins.

Jorge Mateo, SS/OF, OAK – After some problems both on and off the field, Mateo might finally be ready for his MLB premiere.  Once a hot-shot New York Yankees shortstop prospect, Mateo is now a member of the Oakland A's organization, playing some outfield.  Speed remains his calling card, as Mateo has swiped seven bags in 22 games for Triple-A Las Vegas.  However, it's been his hot start with the bat that has gotten him noticed again.  Mateo is hitting .346 over those 22 games, while also striking out a bit less than in the previous two campaigns.  Mateo will never be a patient hitter at the dish, and he may always battle some strikeout issues.  However, his high batting average shows the potential is there for him to be much more than just a future pinch-runner.

Jarren Duran, OF, BOS – Hitting and running, that's all Duran has done since entering the minors, and he has done both exceptionally well.  A seventh-round pick out of Long Beach State in 2018, Duran has hit .365 across three levels through 88 games of professional ball.  That includes his current stop at High-A Salem, where he is slashing .393/.457/.524 with one home run, nine RBIs and nine steals through 21 games.  Power is the one tool Duran might not possess, though he is not a small man at 6-2, 200.  Still, his ability to handle the bat and his skills on the base paths makes him an intriguing prospect.  The starved Red Sox farm system may have unearthed a hidden gem.

William Contreras, C, ATL – The younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, it appears that William has the hitting gene too.  The 21-year-old backstop is batting .333/.400/.457 through 22 games for High-A Florida.  The younger Contreras has not hit below .253 at any level since entering the minors, and is coming off a career-high 11 home runs in 105 games in 2018.  Contreras is also not afraid to take a walk.  He is arguably one of the top five catching prospects in the minors, and may have the most upside of them all.  With Brian McCann and Tyler Flowers aging, Contreras is the catcher of the future for the Braves, though he may not see the big leagues until 2021.

DOWNGRADE

Bo Bichette, SS, TOR – Bichette became the latest in a string of highly touted prospects to suffer a broken hand (see below).  This will obviously delay his eventual reunion with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  However, Bichette did not need surgery, and should be back at Triple-A sometime in June.  Bichette was off to an average start at Triple-A prior to the injury, hitting .250/.310/.404 with one home run, eight RBIs and three steals in 14 contests.  Bichette just turned 21 in March, possesses outstanding speed, emerging power and should hit for average as well.  In sum, the Blue Jays are still hoping by the end of 2019 to have Bichette manning shortstop at the big-league level.

Joey Bart, C, SF – Bart is actually older than Bichette, but the Georgia Tech product was just drafted in 2018 and resides at High-A.  However, Bart was also hit by a pitch and suffered a fractured hand, which should also sideline him until June.  Bart is expected to be a defensive-minded backstop with a power bat, though the jury is still out on whether he can hit for average at the higher levels.  He hasn't hit below .261 at three short stops as a professional, though the sample sizes are obviously very small.  The Giants certainly hope he is the next Buster Posey, but the odds are that Bart will not be able to replicate Posey's talent with the bat, at least not from a contact perspective.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, SEA – A hairline fracture in Rodriguez's left hand after being hit by a pitch has derailed a promising start at Low-A.  Rodriguez opened the season as the fifth-youngest player in Single-A, but looked far from out of place, hitting .355 with almost as many walks (four) as strikeouts (five) through nine games.  Rodriguez is just 18 but projects as a future power prospect as the 6-3 outfielder matures and fills out.  Rodriguez wasn't going to see the big leagues anytime soon anyway, but arguably the top prospect in the Seattle organization likely will be handled even more cautiously following the injury.  As an aside, teammate Jarred Kelenic, one of the prospects returned in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade, has been white-hot since Rodriguez went down.  The 19-year-old is hitting .439 with three home runs, eight RBIs and three steals in the last 10 games.

Julio Pablo Martinez, OF, TEX – Touters of the prospect known as JP may have to slow their roll a bit.  The 23-year-old from Cuba had a home run and four steals through 10 games at Low-A, then quickly received a promotion to High-A due to the injury to top Rangers prospect Bubba Thompson.  Martinez has been slow to adjust to the bump in levels, though batting a putrid .105/.186/.132 through 11 games at High-A.  Martinez received a $2.8 million signing bonus in 2018 from the Rangers, and he was thought to be viewed as a potential fast-riser through the system being already, having played professional in Cuba beginning at age 16.  However, it looks as though Martinez will need developmental time in the minors to hone his aggressiveness at the dish and allow him to get on base and use his speed.