Collette Calls: Did New Pitches Make the Team?

I spend a good amount of time each spring tracking new pitches in spring training. The beauty of it is we get to see rather quickly if the talk of new pitches is just something to pass the time in March, or if it is a hint at a real change to come in the regular season.

The benefits of a new pitch can be best explained by Kirby Yates. Yates was designated for assignment by the Rays, Yankees and Angels before sticking with the Padres as a dominant reliever. Yates was in the process of adding his splitter before the Angels gave up on him too quickly, but he got the pitch right with San Diego and has been lights out since. 

A few weeks back, I focused on the importance of the new pitch for each of the pitchers that appeared on the list. Let's  look at who is using their new pitch, who has hinted at it, and who left the new pitch back in Arizona or Florida.

Using the New Pitch

There is some fight or flight going on with a few pitchers on this list. Bedrosian and Cahill are both trying to hang onto their roles, so the new pitch can help here in the short term. The same could be said about the veteran Wainwright who is trying to get a little more mileage out of his well-used arm. Kingham and Montas are each out of options with their clubs, so the next transaction will be being designated for assignment. Sure, Yates survived three DFA moves in his career before becoming the beast he currently is, but it is not an ideal career path. 

I'd like to focus on two of the pitches above as both Weaver and Zimmermann threw their curve and slider respectively last year, but both spent the offseason making tweaks to the pitch. The folks that run the @qopbaseball account have a system that measures pitch quality on this sliding scale:

Weaver's curveball has the following grade the past few seasons:

• 2016: 3.77
• 2017: 4.40
• 2018: 4.55
• 2019: 3.04

So, the re-worked curveball is off to a poor start, but he has only throw 14. The problem for Weaver is that all of his pitches are rated as poor quality pitches in the early going of the 2019 season.

Zimmermann's slider also does not show much of an adjustment in pitch quality:

• 2016: 4.56
• 2017: 4.53
• 2018: 4.40
• 2019: 4.28

Again, it is too early to look at results and see any definitive changes, but by pitch quality factors, neither Weaver nor Zimmermann are using better versions of old pitches. 

Double Changes

The following four pitches claimed to be working on at least two things in spring:

Burnes is using his changeup in the early going, but the sinker has not shown up in the stats. Mayers has used the curveball, but the sinker has been non-existent. Martin Perez is throwing the cutter he mentioned in the spring and is throwing with increased velocity so far this season, while Richards is using the curveball, but the cutter has not yet made an appearance in 2019.

Still AWOL

We got lip services from many pitchers this spring who said one thing, but have yet to show it in the regular season:

Both Ottavino and Wacha said they were working on secretive new pitches, but their 2018 and 2019 repertoires show nothing new. Four pitchers talked about adding a cutter, but none  has thrown that cutter yet. That concerns me with Lucchesi because he needs that third pitch to sustain success against righties. Yes, he has looked good out of the gate, but if he goes through 2019 with the same pitches he had in 2018, he could be in for another year of righties hitting him well. Last year, his overall pitch quality score was 4.52, and he is at 4.77 in 2019 as the sinker really looks good this year (5.58 QOPA). Parker's cutter is needed as he is a two-pitch pitcher with a good fastball (5.15 QOPA) but his splitter is not good (2.31 QOPA), so a third pitch needs to show up eventually here, otherwise hitters will be sitting on his fastball when he is behind in the count.

Some of those noes may become yeses as the month goes on, but it is unlikely. I am concerned with Lucchesi's long-term success without his cutter, or Parker being able to stick as a closer without another pitch given both Trevor May and Taylor Rogers are more than capable of owning the late innings. I would say the same with Bradley, but he is waiting for the Greg Holland balloon to pop. In the meantime, he should get that changeup going.