The Z Files: Practice What You Preach

Yeah, I know. No one cares about your team but you. Yet, we all still live-tweet draft picks then blog about why we chose who we did. Maybe someone cares after all.

After last week's discussion, Chasing Aces, where I detailed the reasons it's not obligatory to draft pitching early, I thought I'd share a couple of teams I've drafted since the piece hit cyberspace. However, first I want to clarify a couple things from the initial column.

I wasn't suggesting waiting on pitching is better than taking arms early, but rather drafting pitching later can work. One of the keys to success in this part-hobby, part-obsession of ours is adapting to the current environment. You must stay ahead of the curve.

For years, the mantra was wait on pitching. Then, strikeouts began to cluster more in the top tiers, so those bucking the trend and drafting pitching early had considerable success. One reason they were able to do it was the hitting inventory wasn't as top-heavy as it is now. You could put together a strong offense even after expending early picks on hurlers.

Contests like the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) are monkey-see-monkey-do competitions. The success of those drafting at least one ace was evident. What was once contrarian became mainstream; early pitching was the preferred approach.

We're now at the point two concurrent forces are changing the playing field again, so it's time to stay ahead of the curve and not blindly try to catch up to it. First, drafting one ace has extended to grabbing two, further thinning an already sparse supply of elite arms. Second, the composition of the hitting pool has changed. It's now top-heavy with a steep drop-off between tiers as opposed to the steadier decline witnessed the past several seasons. These two trends have a glaring repercussion: eschewing pitching early while focusing on hitting can avail a huge advantage over most of the field.

This is what I mean by staying ahead of the curve. Many are reluctantly conceding it's necessary to draft pitching. Why? Because everyone says so. Instead of conducting their own due diligence, they're essentially taking a Pavlovian approach and following the herd. The problem is, that strategy is based on scenarios that no longer exists.

Again, my point isn't to categorically draft hitting while everyone is concentrating on pitching. Instead, the message is it's fine to draft hitting instead of forcing pitching onto your team. There's a big difference.

Last weekend, a day or two after Chasing Aces was posted, I did an NFBC Express where all 50 players are drafting in one sitting. I had the sixth pick.

After spending the better part of the previous 24 hours defending the piece on social media, I felt obligated to practice what I preached and wait on pitching, even though Max Scherzer was on the board at my pick. I should have clicked on Mad Max. I didn't. Instead, my third-ranked hitter, J.D. Martinez, was mine.

After passing on Scherzer in the first, there was no way I was taking Corey Kluber or Gerrit Cole in the second, so welcome aboard Charlie Blackmon, my 10th-highest batter.

At this point, I'm pot committed so I left Noah Syndergaard, Walker Buehler and James Paxton on the board, selecting my third fly-chaser, Starling Marte.

My next two were Daniel Murphy and Jean Segura. With 25 starters and six closers already on a roster, Mike Foltynewicz was my first pitcher, in Round 6, followed by David Price with the ensuing pick. After snagging Matt Chapman in the eighth, Ken Giles and Jose Alvarado joined my motely crew in Round 9 and 10.

Confession time: I was caught up in practicing what I preached to the detriment of the team. Scherzer should have been the initial pick. At the very least, Cole was the proper move in the second round with J.D. Martinez as the first choice.

Here's the complete staff:

SP: Folty, Price, Collin McHugh, Ross Stripling, Jesus Luzardo, Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough, Chase Anderson, Derek Holland, Logan Allen, Wade LeBlanc, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Straily, Felix Hernandez, Erik Swanson, Jalen Beeks, Stephen Gonsalves, Clayton Richard

RP: Giles, Alvarado, Jose Castillo, Trevor Hildenberger, Lou Trivino

Granted, it doesn't look pretty, but there's enough there to get the job done. I'm not predicting he'll do it, but Price can do for me what Patrick Corbin did for his teams last season. McHugh and Stripling aren't going to throw 180 innings, but on a per-start basis, they're the equal of hurlers drafted earlier. Luzardo is a wild card, as is Allen. Chirinos, Yarbrough and Beeks are all apt to be primary pitchers for the Rays, thus eligible for a win without lasting five innings. Plus, at least one of them is likely to work more than one game in a week. The same is true for the multiple Mariners with LeBlanc, Hernandez and maybe Swanson. Safeco Field is still a nice place to stream, even for lesser arms. Holland has some strikeout upside with a pitcher's park at his back. Straily is serviceable at home. I have nothing good to say about Zimmermann and especially Richard, other than they have a pulse and will start.

The bullpen situation is admittedly dire, no need to sugarcoat. I will plant my flag on Giles being a major league closer and I really like Alvarado's chances, but don't trust the Rays to install him in the ninth and call it a season.

Do I wish I wasn't so myopically jaded and went with Scherzer or Cole? Yes, absolutely. Am I packing it in before the season begins? Hell no!

Earlier in the week, NFBC head honcho Greg Ambrosius set up what's become a yearly tradition and invited some of the First Pitch Arizona speakers to play in a "for fun" NFBC DC league. Among the participants are several RotoWire staffers including last season's co-champs, Derek VanRiper and Tim Heaney, along with Jeff Erickson and Jason Collette. Many of us are tweeting about our picks if you want to check that out.

I was awarded the second pick and with no reservations, took Mookie Betts. Now it gets interesting as I sat down and had a long talk with myself, reminding me I don't have to validate my process by waiting on pitching if someone worthy is available at my pick. I obviously listened as Luis Severino is now Betts' teammate.

Starling Marte followed, then came Jean Segura and Daniel Murphy. Yes, the same trio as the previous draft. One pitcher in my first five picks isn't the same as five straight hitters, but it does follow the pathway of avoiding two early aces. Through five rounds, nine teams had two arms, with no closers drafted.

As of this writing, there are 11 more picks before my turn. The best starters on the board are Price, Zack Wheeler, Luis Castillo, Charlie Morton, Kyle Hendricks, Miles Mikolas and Masahiro Tanaka. We're at the point closers will be drafted soon, so there's an excellent chance two of the above starters will be available to double tap at the turn. The other option is starting to address my paucity of power with a hitter and pitcher. ESPN's Eric Karabell had the first pick and started with three bats, then went back-to-back arms with Mike Clevinger and Jose Berrios. I doubt he'll take three hurlers in a row, so if I opt for the slugger, I can take him next and still grab my top remaining arm coming out of the turn.

Sorry for breaking the "no one cares about your team but you" rule, but showing what follows from delaying pitching could be helpful. The thing to keep in mind is you can't just eyeball the staff assembled in the first league since intrinsic to the ploy is judicious deployment of pitchers. This isn't captured by a standings tracker, or drafting software.

As always, happy to address questions and criticisms in the comments below.