This article is part of our The Z Files series.
A few times this offseason, I've discussed a bug in conventional player valuation methodology. Sage fantasy baseball managers can take advantage of this imperfection, building a roster with the potential to amass more stats that their competitors.
The shortcoming has to do with the number of players assigned positive value. The common practice presumes players drafted into an active roster spot will stay there all season, regardless if they're slumping, disabled, sent down to the minors, etc.
This, of course is not the case. The better approach is paying for the roster spot, not the player. Chances are, the player will be the first to occupy the spot, but not always. Hitters such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nick Senzel, Didi Gregorius and Yoenis Cespedes are expected to contribute later this season, but not on Opening Day. Paying the amount they're expected to produce short-changes what the roster spot as a whole will generate in terms of stats.
A way to quantify the additional contributions to the roster spot was discussed a few weeks back in Finding Profit At the Margins. Today, seven batters with the ability to exploit this valuation inefficiency will be discussed. The notion is everyone else will pay what they think the player is worth while your expenditure accounts for the extra stats supplied by others residing in that roster spot. For what it's worth, each of the seven would be a top-100 hitter if everyone in the league was given the same number
A few times this offseason, I've discussed a bug in conventional player valuation methodology. Sage fantasy baseball managers can take advantage of this imperfection, building a roster with the potential to amass more stats that their competitors.
The shortcoming has to do with the number of players assigned positive value. The common practice presumes players drafted into an active roster spot will stay there all season, regardless if they're slumping, disabled, sent down to the minors, etc.
This, of course is not the case. The better approach is paying for the roster spot, not the player. Chances are, the player will be the first to occupy the spot, but not always. Hitters such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nick Senzel, Didi Gregorius and Yoenis Cespedes are expected to contribute later this season, but not on Opening Day. Paying the amount they're expected to produce short-changes what the roster spot as a whole will generate in terms of stats.
A way to quantify the additional contributions to the roster spot was discussed a few weeks back in Finding Profit At the Margins. Today, seven batters with the ability to exploit this valuation inefficiency will be discussed. The notion is everyone else will pay what they think the player is worth while your expenditure accounts for the extra stats supplied by others residing in that roster spot. For what it's worth, each of the seven would be a top-100 hitter if everyone in the league was given the same number of plate appearances.
Tommy Pham, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Obviously, Pham is already firmly entrenched in the overall top 50, let alone the top-100 hitters. His current NFBC ADP (National Fantasy Baseball Championship Average Draft Position) is late fourth round, with Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain and George Springer in the same neighborhood. However, according to my expectations, Pham's rate of production is, by far, the best of the group.
Pham played in only 128 games in 2017, but remember he was called up a month into the season. Last year, he played in just 137 contests, missing time with foot, groin and finger issues. The safe play is planning on no more than 140 games. If Pham avoids injury, you're essentially replacing the time he was expected to miss with Pham himself.
While the message with most of the other players discussed below is jump them up the cheat sheet or pay a few extra bucks at an auction, that's not the case with Pham. Here, it's more of a tiebreaker. There are more durable options in the first three rounds so it's not prudent to jump Pham up, even after factoring in stats of another player when he's out. None of Cain, Ozuna and Springer are devoid of health concerns, so why not go with the one offering the highest ceiling if he manages to avoid the disabled list?
Nick Senzel, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
The consensus is Senzel's bat is ready. Depending where he plays, his defense could be ready too. However, that's the rub. As currently constituted, the Reds don't have a spot where Senzel can step in. Third base, his natural position, is occupied by Eugenio Suarez. As such, Senzel played more second than third in the minors last season but Scooter Gennett is still copping the keystone. Cincinnati sent Senzel to the Instructional League to play the outfield, his most likely destination, barring a Gennett trade.
With the legit chance Senzel needs more time on the farm honing his fly-chasing abilities, it's unclear if he'll need two weeks to give the club an extra year of control or ample time to avoid Super Two status. My approach is if Gennett is moved and Senzel has a strong camp, he could be up by the end of April. Otherwise, we're looking at June. Either way, once he's up, Senzel projects to be a top-100 hitter, challenging .300 with mid-20s homer and mid-teens stolen base upside.
Depending on the format, stashing a bat of this nature can pay big dividends. Currently, his NFBC ADP is 225, so the majority anticipate the Reds preventing Super Two status. Adding nearly half a year's worth of stats to the roster spot Senzel will eventually populate is huge. My personal rankings are in lockstep with the NFBC. This doesn't factor in the extra production. In draft and hold formats, I'm willing to grab Senzel somewhere between 150 and 200. Knowing a player will be out at the beginning of the season is advantageous since the pool of replacement players is plush, as opposed to later in the season when the waiver wire and free agent inventory is thin.
Things change in a conventional league with much fewer reserves. Accounting for the added production is one thing. Restricting roster management by tying up a reserve spot for two-plus months also needs to be considered. There isn't a universal answer, and context matters. However, having a few multiple-eligibility players facilitates stashing players like Senzel.
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
It's widely understood Braun is still a very productive player. Sure, his batting average has dipped from his salad days, but he still has pop and even runs a little. The knock is health, as he hasn't played a full season since 2012.
Braun seems like an ideal candidate for the replacement player adjustment to cover his disabled list visits. He is, but with a catch. Not only is Braun an injury risk, the Brewers give him frequent days off to help keep him healthy and fresh. This takes away some of the substitute player benefit as even when he's healthy, Braun will miss a game a week. This doesn't disqualify him from meeting the criteria, just don't be as aggressive as would be warranted for a similarly skilled player less likely to be a healthy scratch, so to speak.
David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
Dahl's ADP is close to Pham's, so the same idea applies. That is, the plan shouldn't be to jump the ADP or pay more in an auction but break a tie among other similarly ranked players.
Dahl and Pham may have similar expectations, but they're different players. Pham has done it before while Dahl is still mostly hype and potential, held back by injuries. Dahl's power and speed potential, embellished by Coors Field, may induce drool at the draft table, but he's riskier than Pham, not to mention the other batters available in his range. Breaking a tie with Dahl is more for those embracing early risk.
Justin Bour, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Prorating Bour's production to a full season isn't practical since doing so requires facing southpaw pitching on a regular basis, which would dampen his rate of production. Still, with the new home run boundary in right field rendering Angels Stadium quite beneficial for lefty sluggers, Bour has solid power upside.
Bour's ADP is 362, landing him as a reserve in 15-team mixed leagues. The reason for the early trepidation is the playing time uncertainty with Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols battling Bour for first base and designated hitter. Personally, this is a gross underestimation of how much Bour will play. There's no assurance Ohtani will be ready by Opening Day. If he is, he's not going to play every day as some time will be necessary to rehab his surgically repaired elbow so he can pitch next season. Pujols will likely see those DH at-bats, leaving first base to Bour. Not to mention, it's not like Pujols is without health concerns himself. Drafting Bour onto the active roster sure feels like a solid plan.
Tyler O'Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
O'Neill is similar to Bour in that he's presently drafted as a reserve, however his playing time isn't nearly as likely. The Cardinals aim to give Dexter Fowler the opportunity to capture a corner outfield spot. Your mileage may vary, but my feeling is, "Good luck with that."
Not only is Fowler a health concern with declining plate skills, he's a defensive liability, even in a corner spot. O'Neill's contact issues are unsettling, but the power upside is a risk worth taking, especially at the cost.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals
Zimmerman could be the poster boy for this strategy. He may be over the shoulder woes he's incurred for several seasons, but last season Zimmerman missed significant time with back issues. Especially for a 35-year-old player, back trouble usually doesn't just go away.
On the other hand, once Zimmerman returned last season, he slashed a productive .295/.374/.538 after the break. His ADP sits at 316, essentially an end-gamer. Jump him into the high 200s, draft Zimmerman at utility (or corner infield with another CI-eligible player at utility) and enjoy the ride. When/if Zimmerman is out, the best available batter can backfill the utility spot.
