Collette Calls: Breaking Down Joey Votto

Before getting into this week's article, I did complete a final report card for my 60 bold predictions for the season. I've already written about one or two of them, and will do a few more over the course of this offseason, but wanted to go through the public accountability of where I hit (green), where I came close (yellow), and where I swung and missed like Javy Baez at a 58 foot changeup (red).

I made some predictions about players getting to 30 homers, and a few came true, most notably C.J. Cron and Christian Yelich. One player I faded on power was Evan Longoria, stating he would hit fewer than 15 home runs. He heard me and ended up hitting 16. The other player I faded was Lucas Duda, and that one worked out rather well for me. There were an unmagnificent seven players that had massive drops in their power from 2017 to 2018:

•Jay Bruce: lost 27 homers
•Aaron Judge: lost 25 homers
•Domingo Santana: lost 25 homers
•Josh Donaldson: lost 25 homers
•Steven Souza Jr: lost 25 homers
•Jake Lamb: lost 24 homers
•Joey Votto: lost 24 homers

Jay Bruce was not healthy for a large portion of the summer, if at all this season, and his power suffered. Aaron Judge missed time with a broken wrist after being hit by Jakob Junis in late July. Domingo Santana lost his job due to ineffectiveness at the plate in an already crowded outfield in Milwaukee, and even combining his Triple-A and major league numbers were still a massive drop off from the breakout in 2017. Once Santana went cold, he lost his chances and never got a chance to get them back once the club went out and re-tooled at the trade deadline. Josh Donaldson also struggled with injuries, as did Steven Souza Jr. (again), and Jake Lamb.

The one player who played close to a full season was Joey Votto, and even he could not avoid injury. He was hit by a Ryan Madson fastball in late July and tried to play through it before going on the disabled list for two weeks in August. Votto ended the season with 623 plate appearances and a career-low 12 home runs. He had never hit fewer than 14 home runs in a season where he had at least 475 plate appearances, so the loss of power this season was alarming and something that needs further investigation.

These are Votto's numbers in the full seasons of his career:

He did not suddenly stop hitting fly balls, but the ones he did hit did not travel as far. Exit velocity was not the problem, as Votto's average exit velocity in 2018 (88.1) is up slightly from 2017 (87.6). It also does not even appear to be a distance issue as his overall average distance has dropped from 197 feet to 193 feet year over year while his average launch angle of 13.2 degrees is still above his 2015 and 2016 totals. Votto is notorious for not hitting infield pop-ups, so even if we zero in on his average flyball distance year over year, we see a small decline from 331 feet to 323 feet. That could explain some drop in his home run to flyball ratio, but not wash out 24 home runs year over year. Let us then focus on the home runs.

Votto's average home run distance from 2015 through 2017 was somewhere between 396 to 398 feet according to StatCast data. 2018 saw that consistent rate disappear as he dropped to 383 feet.

The obvious difference is the frequency of the home runs from 2015 through 2017 compared to this past season, but take notice of the direction of his home runs this year in comparison to the past two seasons. There is a noticeable lack of pulled home runs that were ever present the past few seasons. Votto hit more home runs to the opposite field this season than he did pull shots. 2017 saw Votto hit a plethora of pulled home runs.

The quality of Votto's contact by expected weighted on base average tells us he left some in the tank. He had a .370 wOBA on the season, but his xwOBA was at .415. That .415 rate would have had him right in line with what he did from 2015 to 2017. Simply put, Votto should have done better than he did overall offensively, but the contact does not necessarily mean more should have gone over the fence. After all, if we isolate it down to just his slugging percentage, that .419 figure was 104 points below his expected slugging percentage of .523. That xSLG would still be a step back from where he was in previous seasons, but not the dramatic drop off Votto owners experienced this season.

2019 draft season for Votto is going to be interesting because his surrounding cast is still going to be suspect, and if he is going to struggle to get more than 20 homers at first base, he has to get back to a very high batting average. As it were, C.J. Cron and Eric Hosmer out-earned Votto this year, which absolutely nobody could have predicted at the start of the season. If you set your expectations closer to 2013 with him (24 homers, .305 average, 73 RBIs), you should not be disappointed. If you are looking at a return to the upper 20s to 30s in home runs for a player heading into his age 36 season, you should re-visit your expectations.