MLB Barometer: Better Late Than Never

Beef got married over the weekend.

I remember meeting Brodi for the first time, and after learning more about her shared interests -- specifically, coaching tennis and teaching -- it was very easy to understand why Beef liked her.

Initially, my sister and I were concerned, as we couldn't quite figure out what Brodi liked about our brother. We tend to see a different side of our siblings than the everybody else does. Beef at Culver's on a Tuesday night with the family, or at home on Christmas morning is quite a bit different than Coach Beef, or Mr. Beef in the classroom. (I *think* his students call him Mr. VanRiper, but I'm really not certain.)

As we got to know Brodi better over the past 18 months, it was a no-doubter. Not only did they have a lot of shared interests, they were a great match because we realized that the same endearing quirks that made us love and laugh at Beef for the last 27 years, were similar to her own.

Over the past decade, I have learned first-hand that getting married isn't a 1-for-1 trade.

Your new spouse comes with an entire family -- siblings, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, nieces -- and a new group of friends that you will spend the rest of your life with. At every turn -- good and bad -- they will be there along the way, for life's most important moments.

Not surprisingly, I wasn't as locked into baseball while celebrating this weekend.

My apologies for the delay with this week's column. The focus, now that I've fully recovered from an amazing (and exhausting) weekend is on starting pitchers that have caught my eye for a variety of reasons over the past four to six weeks.

Risers

Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM -- I have griped about the Mets' inability to provide ample run and bullpen support for Jacob deGrom all season, as his crazy-low win total has cost me at least a half-dozen standings points in the NFBC Main Event. Things haven't been much better for Wheeler on that front, and while he's not pitching at an elite level like deGrom, his return for a healthy 2018 is one of a few bright spots in the tale of the 2018 Mets. In portions of four big-league seasons, Wheeler has often struggled with control, but he's issuing walks at a career-low 8.1% clip (3.1 BB/9) this time around, while his swinging-strike rate (11.0%) fully supports his 23.5% K% (8.9 K/9).

In addition to an uptick in velocity, Wheeler is throwing a splitter, which has largely replaced his changeup. Last season, opponents had a .489 wOBA against Wheeler's changeup, and it was an ineffective offering for him before Tommy John surgery knocked him out for 2015 and 2016. The splitter he throws is generating a 28.0% whiff rate this season, and opposing hitters have a .257 wOBA against the offering. Having that pitch work effectively has significantly changed his ability to retire left-handed hitters, who previously crushed him at a well above average clip.

While he might not be the frontline starter that many expected him to become as a prospect, Wheeler is settling in as a strong No. 3 starter for the Mets with the chance of being a little bit more, as he's pitching at an even higher level over the past two months with a 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP along with a 77:24 K:BB over his last 77.1 innings. It would hardly be surprising to see him carry an ADP right around the 100 overall mark in 2019.

Your monthly reminder to follow @PitchingNinja (Rob Friedman) on Twitter features Wheeler's four-seam fastball overlayed with his new splitter.

Zack Wheeler, 99mph Fastball and 92mph Splitter, Overlay/Slow. pic.twitter.com/Bn95SCwwvQ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 17, 2018

John Gant, SP, STL -- You might remember this version of Gant when he came up with the Braves (thanks to Joe Trezza of MLB.com for posting this during the winter):

John Gant's two step is no more. Why the Cardinals' righty said RIP to the wackiest delivery in baseball. https://t.co/Y2gQsgKr9f#STLCardspic.twitter.com/uLYxnnI6Kt

— Joe Trezza (@JoeTrezz) February 21, 2018

The old delivery was deemed illegal, but he's settled in nicely with his new one, while throwing a nasty changeup (overlayed here with his curveball by Michael Augustine of the Pitcher List -- give him as a follow as well -- @AugustineMLB):

@CardinalsJohn Gant spinning his curve (76MPH) so well it nearly duplicates his changeup (82MPH) location. #STLCards#MLB@PitcherListpic.twitter.com/2kBxg2k0ZG

— Michael Augustine (@AugustineMLB) July 7, 2018

Gant works with a sinker as his primary offering (~50 percent usage), mixing changeups and curveballs and getting whiffs nearly one-third of the time with each (combined ~40 percent usage). He's not an every start, set-it-and-forge-it option by any stretch, but he's a very different pitcher than he was upon arrival two years ago, and the Cards may have found a way get useful starts from him every fifth day by switching the fastball approach. More strikeouts should be coming (11.6% swinging-strike rate, 7.7 K/9 -- 20.0% K%), but he'll need to improve his walk rate (4.0 BB/9) during the final two months to increase his chances of opening 2019 as more than the swingman in St. Louis.

Zack Godley, SP, ARI -- In early June, I was having a very difficult time believing that Godley was going to be able to recover from his slugging two-month run to begin 2018. Fortunately for his owners, he's made adjustments, increasing the use of his already heavily-utilized curveball, throwing more cutters, and leaning less on his sinker. The results over the last five starts have been excellent -- 36:8 K:BB in 31 innings, with a 2.90 ERA over the last five starts. He hasn't allowed a home run since June, and while that can't last, he's trimmed the walk rate back below 4.0 BB/9 during that span. While the 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP we saw from Godley last season may serve as career bests, his overall skills in 2018 are improving enough to where a sub-4.00 ERA and solid (~1.20 range) WHIP might be his actual baseline.

Jon Gray, SP, COL -- Gray is here thanks to a 25:7 K:BB and 1.52 ERA in 29.2 innings over four starts since returning from Triple-A just prior to the All-Star break. Has anything really changed? As far as the pitch mix is concerned, the answer is a flat no. The difference in Gray in July and early August in terms of approach is that he's getting hitters to chase his slider and curveball and an elevated clip. The curveball in particular wasn't working well for him at all in June when the Rockies gave him a brief stint at Triple-A to get back on track. The slider has been improving month-by-month all season in terms of chase rate, which may be a function of more frequently setting himself up to use it as a wipeout pitch. The hazards of pitching half of his starts at Coors Field remain, but Gray is currently throwing three pitches that have carried a whiff rate of at least 40 percent in 2018 -- as both of his breaking pitches and his changeup have been outstanding. The environment should continue to limit him to a 3.75-4.00 ERA and an uglier-than-it-should-be WHIP (~1.30), however, and he would have to pitch like a top 20-25 starter on the road in order to improve those expectations. In each of his three full seasons with Colorado, Gray has posted an ERA of 4.00 or higher away from Coors Field.

Dereck Rodriguez, SP, SF -- Considering that he's the son of Hall-of-Fame catcher Pudge Rodriguez, it's somewhat surprising that Rodriguez was an unheralded prospect in an underwhelming Giants system. At a glance, he seems to do everything reasonably well, which isn't typically something we see in a pitcher with elite ratios.

Through 73 innings this season, he's pitched a 2.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with underlying skills that include a 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 (20.6% K%, 6.1% BB%), an 8.7% swinging-strike rate, and a 0.49 HR/9 (5.7% HR/FB).

Rodriguez throws five pitches -- all of which are used at least 10 percent of the time -- and he commands his arsenal effectively, as he doesn't hurt himself often with walks. He's also been able to minimize damage, having allowed just six barreled balls in 198 batted-ball events this season.

As Jeff Zimmerman pointed out in his detailed breakdown of Rodriguez at FanGraphs in June, he's still relatively new to pitching and may not be a finished product, which makes this surprising run of success a bit more interesting than the typical 26-year-old breakout out of relative nowhere. Comparing him to Gant might be prudent as both could be on the radar as bargain arms for 2019, or cheap stashes in keeper leagues, and while Gant has shown more aplomb for missing bats to this point in his career, Rodriguez may have a clearer path to a starter's workload in 2019 as the Giants could be entering a long rebuilding phase.

Fallers

Luis Severino, SP, NYY -- Severino has been suddenly prone to the long ball, having allowed nine homers over his last six starts (32 innings) while getting knocked around to the tune of a 7.32 ERA during that span. Of those six starts, five have come on the road, but only two were made against American League playoff teams (Boston and Cleveland), As far as velocity is concerned, nothing appears to be wrong, and the issue may be tipping pitches, or simply missing his spots on a regular basis. Another theory is that the league is beginning to figure out his fastball-slider mix, which could force him to refine and increase the use of his changeup to keep hitters off balance in the future. The hope here is that his eight-strikeout, seven-inning, three-run performance against the White Sox his last time out is a step in the right direction as Severino attempts to solidify his standing as a top-five starting pitcher heading into 2019.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, SFG -- Maybe one day we'll look back at this attempt to reasonably lower the expectations for Bumgarner and laugh because it all turned out to be the byproduct of a dirt bike accident and a broken finger the following spring. The Steamer projection system has Bumgarner pitching to a 3.73 ERA and 1.21 WHIP the rest of the way (it's the most "pessimistic" of the systems I'm looking at), which is still a very solid starting pitcher in the current major-league landscape. With a 1.25 WHIP in 2018, Bumgarner has reached his worst mark in that category since he was a 20-year-old, and his 2.69 ERA sits nearly a run below his FIP (3.58) through 73.2 innings. He's a very tough player to bet against, but his fastball has become a liability and he'll need to make significant adjustments if he's ever going to push his way into the conversation as a top-10 starter again.

Sean Manaea, SP, OAK -- Manaea looked like a pitcher taking a huge step forward back in April, and he made an appearance in the 'Risers' section of this column after throwing a no-no against the Red Sox. Here was my early-season take:

Throwing a no-hitter is a pretty easy path into the 'Risers' section of this piece. Manaea was having a nice opening month before he took his place in history Saturday night against the Red Sox. Looking at the ratios (and BABIP) of a pitcher with a no-no steeped into the first five starts will typically yield some gaudy numbers (1.23 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, .130 BABIP). There are two particular areas in which Manaea has shown improvement early -- his walk rate (currently at a career-low 4.6%, 1.5 BB/9) and his groundball rate (a career-high 48.4%). Considering that he's missed bats at a near league-average clip throughout his time in Oakland, the ceiling might be similar to Jose Quintana's 2015 and 2016 campaigns with the White Sox, which makes Manaea's value hinge on his ability to remain efficient in his starts and healthy throughout the season. He's topped 160 innings across all levels in each of the last two seasons, so 185-190 is probably a reasonable ceiling.

He's stayed healthy and maintained great ratios (3.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) through 144 innings this season, but Manaea has a 6.2 K/9 over the past calendar year. Improved control (1.8 BB/9 in 2018) can help to offset the very low strikeout rate, but he's basically a left-handed Miles Mikolas, dependent upon the defense behind him and his ability to limit hard contact in order to maintain his current level of effectiveness. The groundball rate surge from April hasn't become a new skill, but the improved control paired with a swinging-strike rate (10.2%) that is unusually high for a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate, offers some hope that the previously suggested peak-Jose Quintana comp is attainable. Manaea is a 'Faller' this week because of the lack of strikeouts -- as he's finished with one in three of his last seven starts, while maxing out with a high of five during that span.

Jose Quintana, SP, CHC -- Let's take another two-month snapshot of Quintana. Since the start of June, he's posted a 48:25 K:BB with nine homers allowed in his last 61.1 innings. The skills during that window are right in line with what he's done through 2018 -- which has featured a return to his pre-2017 strikeout rate, a career-worst walk rate (4.1 BB/9) and an increasingly bad case of gopheritis (1.28 HR/9). It's troubling that the Cubs haven't been able to fix the walk issue as the final third of the season is now underway, but the optimism about an elevated strikeout ceiling with the move to the National League should be gone at this point. The potential for a rebound hinges on his ability to improve his command, at least enough to reduce the hard contact he's been yielding to this point, and to give the defense behind him a better chance to help push the ERA back down the rest of the way. Two months ago I thought he was capable of returning more value than teammate Jon Lester by season's end. Now, I'm looking at Cole Hamels as the Cubs' best starter.

Sonny Gray, RP, NYY -- It finally happened. The Yankees dropped Gray from the rotation after another disappointing turn in the rotation last week, opting to replace him with the recently acquired Lance Lynn. Gray fired three scoreless frames out of the bullpen Tuesday night against the White Sox, and it will be interesting to see if a few successful outings in relief open the door for more starts by season's end. The results on the road throughout 2018 kept pulling me back in every time I thought about benching Gray in mixed Tout Wars (a 15-team mixed format), as he's posted a 64:17 K:BB with a 3.43 in 57.2 innings outside of Yankee Stadium this season. Cutting him in most mixed leagues seems prudent, but I'm keeping a very close eye on his results and approach in the new role, as I'm both stubborn and genuinely curious to see how much of his disappointing season is a direct result of being too mindful of the hitter-friendly tendencies of his home park.