This article is part of our The Z Files series.
How many years does a player need to exhibit better second-half numbers to be considered a second-half player? Three? Four? Maybe five?
Let's look at this in terms of probability. If eight people flip a coin three times, the laws of probability dictate one flips three heads while another flips three tails. If sixteen flip it four times, one ends up with four heads while another gets four tails. Upping this to 32 folks flipping five times, again one lands on five heads while someone else gabs five tails.
Do you consider any of the individuals flipping all heads or all tails to be lucky? In a vacuum, if they were the only person participating, sure, they were lucky. However, in context with the population performing the exercise, they weren't lucky. Their result was predicted by simple probability.
Let's say flipping heads represents a better first half, tails a superior second half. At any given time, there are 750 active players. One in sixteen of them, or 94, can be expected to have had three consecutive better second halves (ignoring the fact some of this occurred in