Collette Calls: Third Time Not the Charm for Weaver
Collette Calls: Third Time Not the Charm for Weaver

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

Luke Weaver was 39th in our preseason pitcher rankings. His ADP in the heat of the draft season was an identical 39. His current ranking in 12-team mixed standard format leagues is roughly 100 spots below both rankings thanks to a 4-6 record, 4.59 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 16 starts.

Regular readers of this column will recall I was bearish on Weaver in my bold prediction series and cited a few reasons for that opinion. The first one I mentioned was Derek Carty's observation that Weaver added bulk to his frame. Carty mentioned his time in scout school taught him dramatically adding mass can disrupt your muscle memory and mechanics and lead to injury. The second part I had was based off work by Alex Chamberlain, which noted that Weaver's expected strikeout rate was much lower than his actual strikeout rate. I ran a scatterplot of all starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in 2017 comparing their swinging strike rate against their actual strikeout rate (red arrow points to Weaver's spot):

I went on to show how that looked in tabular form and how his strikeout rate was much higher than pitchers with similar outcomes:

PITCHERSwStr%K%
Luke Weaver9.728.6
Marcus Stroman10.019.7
Jeff Samardzija10.024.2
Kyle Gibson10.017.5
Edwin Jackson10.017.7
Drew Pomeranz9.923.5
Jason Vargas9.917.7
Tyler Chatwood9.919.0
Cole Hamels9.717.1
Jharel Cotton9.718.6
Michael Wacha9.622.5

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999 at RotoJunkie, Fanball, Baseball Prospectus and now here at RotoWire. He covers the Tampa Bay Rays at theprocessreport.net. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast on iTunes. An eight-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls.
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