This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Regular readers of this column will recall I was bearish on Weaver in my bold prediction series and cited a few reasons for that opinion. The first one I mentioned was Derek Carty's observation that Weaver added bulk to his frame. Carty mentioned his time in scout school taught him dramatically adding mass can disrupt your muscle memory and mechanics and lead to injury. The second part I had was based off work by Alex Chamberlain, which noted that Weaver's expected strikeout rate was much lower than his actual strikeout rate. I ran a scatterplot of all starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in 2017 comparing their swinging strike rate against their actual strikeout rate (red arrow points to Weaver's spot):
I went on to show how that looked in tabular form and how his strikeout rate was much higher than pitchers with similar outcomes:
The purpose of this