This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
This week's piece is more of a grab bag of thoughts as no single item dominated my list of things to discuss as I finally had some time to sit down and write.
One thing I had penciled down to discuss was how we can often become biased about our favorite player. The batter should be doing better than he is, or the pitcher is getting squeezed. Stacy Gotsulias of Baseball Prospectus does not hide her Yankee fandom. She also does not describe her disdain for how she feels Aaron Judge gets shafted by umpires on calling strikes:
I'm sick of balls being called strikes on Judge. It's ridiculous.
— Stacey Gotsulias (@StaceGots) May 27, 2018
She has made a similar tweet a few times in recent weeks, so I sat down to look at the data around how many times Judge has indeed been victimized by an expanded strike zone. Turns out, Stacy is right and it isn't even close as Judge has
This week's piece is more of a grab bag of thoughts as no single item dominated my list of things to discuss as I finally had some time to sit down and write.
One thing I had penciled down to discuss was how we can often become biased about our favorite player. The batter should be doing better than he is, or the pitcher is getting squeezed. Stacy Gotsulias of Baseball Prospectus does not hide her Yankee fandom. She also does not describe her disdain for how she feels Aaron Judge gets shafted by umpires on calling strikes:
I'm sick of balls being called strikes on Judge. It's ridiculous.
— Stacey Gotsulias (@StaceGots) May 27, 2018
She has made a similar tweet a few times in recent weeks, so I sat down to look at the data around how many times Judge has indeed been victimized by an expanded strike zone. Turns out, Stacy is right and it isn't even close as Judge has been victimized by framed strikes a league-leading 26 times heading into play this week:
Aaron Judge - 26
Matt Olson - 18
Jon Jay - 15
Cameron Maybin - 14
Anthony Rendon - 14
Jose Martinez - 14
Andrelton Simmons - 13
Curtis Granderson - 12
Andrew McCutchen - 12
Freddy Galvis - 12
Brian Dozier - 12
Chris Taylor - 12
Size may be in play given that both Judge and Olson are two of the larger hitters in the game. Then again, the diminutive Jon Jay is next on the list. I then looked at the walk rate and swing rate of each of the batters to see if there was anything. Judge is certainly a passive hitter on the hunt for his prey, but he does not have the lowest swing rate of the group as veteran Curtis Granderson is adept at taking a lot of pitches and working counts.
| PLAYER | STRIKES FRAMED | WALK RATE | SWING RATE |
| Aaron Judge | 26 | 18% | 36% |
| Matt Olson | 18 | 10% | 44% |
| Jon Jay | 15 | 7% | 47% |
| Cameron Maybin | 14 | 11% | 41% |
| Anthony Rendon | 14 | 12% | 43% |
| Jose Martinez | 14 | 10% | 41% |
| Andrelton Simmons | 13 | 10% | 41% |
| Curtis Granderson | 12 | 17% | 35% |
| Andrew McCutchen | 12 | 14% | 40% |
| Freddy Galvis | 12 | 8% | 48% |
| Brian Dozier | 12 | 9% | 42% |
| Chris Taylor | 12 | 10% | 45% |
Judge is the leader in strikes looking above average (SLAA) on pitches outside of the rulebook strike zone at 14.9, but Anthony Rendon is not that far behind him at 11.5. Where things get interesting is when we look at SLAA for pitches inside the rulebook regulations:
| PLAYER | STRIKES FRAMED | SLAA OOZ | SLAA IZ |
| Aaron Judge | 26 | 14.9 | 4.3 |
| Matt Olson | 18 | 8.8 | -0.6 |
| Jon Jay | 15 | 6.3 | 2.8 |
| Cameron Maybin | 14 | 6.9 | 2.1 |
| Anthony Rendon | 14 | 11.5 | 0.3 |
| Jose Martinez | 14 | 8.3 | 0.2 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 13 | 4.3 | -1.9 |
| Curtis Granderson | 12 | 3.7 | 8.5 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 12 | 0.7 | 3.6 |
| Freddy Galvis | 12 | 3.5 | -4.8 |
| Brian Dozier | 12 | 2.3 | -5.7 |
| Chris Taylor | 12 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
Judge sees his number go down quite a bit, but not as much as Rendon. Conversely, Granderson takes a higher number of strikes above average than any of the other hitters on the list. Judge is certainly victimized more frequently with framed strikes than other hitters, but it is hard to look for a specific reason when Rendon is nearly right there with him on getting hosed on strike calls that are outside of the rulebook zone by SLAA.
• In Monday's 1-0 13-inning affair, Jonny Venters earned the first save since Alex Colome's departure to Seattle in Friday's trade. The save stat is my least favorite stat in fantasy baseball because any time a closer gets traded, all my Twitter followers seem to care about is who is next for saves. Nevermind the fact the bullpen does not have one clearcut favorite and that Kevin Cash has mixed and matched all of the relievers in front of Colome all season. Here are the candidates for the position as things stand at the end of May:
These guys are listed in no particular order, but by the numbers, there is one clear candidate for this job (in its classic form), and it is Jose Alvarado. The young lefty throws 100 and does not have the splits issue that every other pitcher in the equation has demonstrated both this season and historically. Jonny Venters and his bionic elbow have been an amazing comeback story to follow, but he is best served in the LOOGY role as lefties really struggle to pick up his arm angle. Chaz Roe and Sergio Romo both have nasty sliders that give righties fits, but both are not good against lefties and are best used to quell rallies in late innings with righties at the plate. Stanek too can throw 100 and looks like a different guy with his reformed splitter and slider this year, but he is prone to the long ball with his straight fastball.
Alvarado is dealing these days with his velo and slider, shutting down both lefties and righties, but we do not yet know how Cash will utilize him moving forward. Alvarado came in with two outs in the 7th inning to replace Romo, which forced Dustin Fowler out of the game and Mark Canha into centerfield. He got a first-pitch groundout from Canha, went 1-2-3 in the eighth, but came out in the 9th after allowing a leadoff double to Jed Lowrie and then a nine-pitch walk (all fastballs) to Matt Olson. Matt Andriese, not Chaz Roe, came in to relieve Alvarado, who remained in the game until the Rays took the lead at which time Stanek came on, but Venters was brought in for the final out to strike out Olson. That situational-based closer-by-committee is what you can likely expect moving forward from the team. You should also anticipate both Romo and Roe being traded since the team has already made it clear they will move assets for future assets, even though they're currently playing .500 baseball.
Two other names will enter the picture eventually, and one did with a recall yesterday. Jaime Schultz was brought up despite some ugly numbers in Triple-A Durham where he has a 9.98 ERA and a 2.93 WHIP in 15 innings of work. Schultz was a lock for the opening day pen in 2017 before a late groin injury in spring training shelved him for most of the season. The season before, he worked as a starter and struck out 163 in 130 innings of work while allowing 113 hits. At 27, the future is now, so perhaps they believe this surprise promotion can get him back on track. The real name to watch is Diego Castillo. Since the start of the 2017 season, Castillo has struck out 114 batters while allowing 70 hits and three home runs in 93.2 innings of work. Think of him as the right-handed version of Jose Alvarado. It would be unlike the Rays to throw a rookie right into the closer role, but in a season where they're using relievers to start games, anything is possible. While I do not envision any one reliever in this bullpen to pick up 15 saves the rest of the way, I do envision four to five guys picking up multiple saves.
• The last bit of information I want to share is this interesting article I saw Dr. Alan Nathan share Monday, which shows that home runs are lagging from last year's pace and do not show any signs of improving. The author finds a "significant drop" in home run hitting this season despite the increased both an increase in launch angle and exit velocity from 2017. I mentioned this early trend in an article back on April 11th when the league-wide home run rate was off to a sluggish pace. Early on, a home run was being hit every 36.1 plate appearances, and while the rate has now improved to a home run every 33.9 plate appearances, that rate is still higher than each of the previous two seasons. In short, if you are waiting for the power surge to come this season, it does not appear as if it will arrive any time soon.
