NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grid, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Cody Bellinger would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (NL-Only)
Jack Flaherty STL SP C 6 15 31
Joe Musgrove PIT SP C 5 13 26
Tyler Mahle CIN SP D 1 3 13
Cody Reed CIN SP F No No 1
Brandon McCarthy ATL SP D 0 2 10
A.J. Cole WAS SP D No 1 8
Joey Lucchesi SD SP D No 1 7
Bryan Mitchell SD SP D 1 4 15
Ty Blach SF SP D 0
This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grid, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Cody Bellinger would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (NL-Only)
Jack Flaherty STL SP C 6 15 31
Joe Musgrove PIT SP C 5 13 26
Tyler Mahle CIN SP D 1 3 13
Cody Reed CIN SP F No No 1
Brandon McCarthy ATL SP D 0 2 10
A.J. Cole WAS SP D No 1 8
Joey Lucchesi SD SP D No 1 7
Bryan Mitchell SD SP D 1 4 15
Ty Blach SF SP D 0 3 11
Chris Stratton SF SP D 1 4 15
Ben Lively PHI SP D No 0 7
Adam Conley MIA SP F No No 0
Dillon Peters MIA SP F No No 1
Brad Boxberger AZ RP C 17 32 47
Hunter Strickland SF RP C 15 30 44
Jordan Hicks STL RP C 0 2 8
Carl Edwards Jr. CHC RP C 0 3 11
George Kontos PIT RP D No 1 6
Robert Gsellman NYM RP D No 0 5
Victor Caratini CHC C D 1 2 10
Andrew Knapp PHI C D No 0 7
Chris Stewart ATL C F No No 2
Chad Wallach MIA C F No No 0
Jose Martinez STL 1B/OF B 24 41 63
Matt Adams WAS 1B D 0 3 10
Joe Panik SF 2B C 7 16 37
Carlos Asuaje SD 2B D No 0 8
Freddy Galvis SD SS D 0 4 15
Wilmer Difo WAS SS D No 0 8
Nick Ahmed AZ SS D No 1 8
Brian Anderson MIA 3B D 0 2 9
Ryan Flaherty ATL 3B D No No 4
Lewis Brinson MIA OF B 15 29 48
Garrett Cooper MIA 1B/OF D No No 5
Brandon Nimmo NYM OF D 0 1 10
Brian Goodwin WAS OF D No 0 8

Starting Pitcher

Jack Flaherty, Cardinals - Adam Wainwright went down with a hamstring injury late in spring training, opening the door for Flaherty to return to the Cardinals. The results from Flaherty's initial cup of coffee last year were unsightly (6.33 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), but as Andrew Simon of MLB.com points out, Flaherty's slider had the highest swinging-strike rate among starting pitchers in his limited sample last season (32.1 percent). That dominance was on full display this spring, with Flaherty fanning 24 in 15.2 Grapefruit League innings. His initial landing spot this season isn't great (at the Brewers), but Flaherty has a chance to become a mainstay in the Cardinals' rotation if he holds his own in the weeks ahead. 12-team mixed: $6; 15-team mixed: $15; 12-team NL-only: $31

Joe Musgrove, Pirates - A shoulder injury threatened to put Musgrove on the disabled list to begin the season, and it was a photo finish, but he built up just enough to make the Opening Day roster. The right-hander threw 92 pitches against minor leaguers at the team's spring-training complex Saturday and should be fine to start April 5 against the Reds. He broke into the league with a fair amount of prospect hype, and while he fell out of a starting role with Houston, Musgrove was excellent out of the bullpen down the stretch, and there's reason to believe the improved stuff could survive the transition back to the rotation. If an owner was feeling the roster crunch and had to cut bait, go ahead and open the wallet a little. 12-team mixed: $5; 15-team mixed: $13; 12-team NL-only: $26

Tyler Mahle, Reds - Spring was going swimmingly for Mahle until he ran into the Rangers on March 26, giving up six runs on 10 hits (including two homers) over four innings. That's the kind of downside we're looking at -- or perhaps worse -- in Mahle's home start against the Cubs on Monday. He lines up for another start, on the road against Pittsburgh, but the reward probably isn't enough to outweigh the risk in mixed leagues. That doesn't mean Mahle isn't worth owning. He has a track record of good control, and the opportunity is there for Mahle to blow past 20 starts for Cincinnati. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL-only: $13

Cody Reed, Reds - Amir Garrett seemed like the obvious choice to step in Tuesday after the Reds' Opening Day postponement, but the team has decided to turn to Reed even though he got knocked around in the spring (20 hits in 12.1 innings). Reed was once a prospect of some ilk, and while you can color this Reds fan skeptical given what he's seen, our lead prospect writer James Anderson said on the Saturday XM show that he's not willing to close the book on Reed as a starter. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $1

Brandon McCarthy, Braves - McCarthy had a fine debut with Atlanta (his seventh major-league organization), allowing two runs while striking out five over 5.1 innings to beat the Phillies on Saturday. The right-hander hasn't made 20 starts since 2014 and his next two starts come at Colorado and at Washington. That said, quality starting pitching is at a major premium, and McCarthy can be just good enough when healthy to be useful as a streamer in deep mixed leagues. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $2; 12-team NL-only: $10

A.J. Cole, Nationals - He struck out 16 batters in 13 Grapefruit League innings, but Cole also walked seven and gave up two homers. The team's signing of Jeremy Hellickson to a minor-league deal in mid-March speaks to a lack of faith in Cole, who lines up to face the Braves in his first start of the season. Cole has struggled against left-handed batters (.299/.380/.517), and SunTrust Park boosted run scoring for lefty bats by roughly 10 percent in its initial year. Once a prospect, Cole now looks like he's reached his ceiling as a No. 5 starter, and he won't have much of a leash if he struggles. Tread carefully. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL-only: $8

Joey Lucchesi, Padres - Pronounced "Lou-casey." It's a name worth knowing, although with road starts against Houston and Colorado upcoming, those in mixed leagues will probably want to just throw him on a watch list for now. Called upon to start the Padres' second game of the season, Lucchesi became the second player from the 2016 draft to reach the majors. His big-league debut was nothing to write home about, with Lucchesi giving up three runs and managing just one strikeout in 4.2 innings, but he looked decent after the first inning. The 6-foot-4 lefty has a unique delivery that hides the ball well, and he repeats with consistency. Lucchesi induced 10 swinging strikes on 75 pitches against Milwaukee, a number that hints at room for growth with K's. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL-only: $7

Bryan Mitchell, Padres - Mitchell gets the Rockies at home in his Padres debut followed by the defending champion Astros in Houston in the second half of a two-step. He spent the better part of four years toiling at the upper levels of the Yankees' organization, totaling just 48 appearances with the big club from 2014-17. The numbers from those various stints look downright bad, but he has four pitches in his arsenal, including a curveball that manager Andy Green said is "as good as you'll see in Major League Baseball." Mitchell did not have a great spring, but there's plausible upside here. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL-only: $15

Ty Blach, Giants - Yes, Blach did have a strong debut, even outdueling Clayton Kershaw, but it's hard to imagine his overall body of work looking much different than last year's. He did show something of an added strikeout punch this spring, racking up 15 strikeouts in 17.1 innings, but Blach will still be a below-average strikeout arm even if he does make real strides in that department. He had the lowest K/9 among starting pitchers last year. Both starts this week are at home for Blach (SEA, LAD), but owners will be playing with fire if they deploy him. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL-only: $11

Chris Stratton, Giants - If you weren't following a select handful of people on Twitter, you may have missed the palpable buzz surrounding Stratton's spring. He posted a 28:7 K:BB and allowed just two homers in 27.1 Cactus League innings. While his minor-league track record is underwhelming, he has shown better control at the upper levels the past two years. His ownership levels are surprisingly low on many host sites right now. Depending on how he fares in the series finale against Los Angeles on Sunday, Stratton's acquisition cost could soar or fall considerably. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL-only: $15

Ben Lively, Phillies - Lively lines up for two starts this week, and the matchups aren't all that bad (at NYM, vs MIA), but he had a 5.3 K/9 last year, and any pitcher who allows that much contact is a risk. You don't want to be on the wrong side of some poor batted-ball luck. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $8

Adam Conley, Marlins - The Marlins are not yet listing a starting pitcher for Monday's game against the Red Sox. If it's Conley, avoid him like the plague. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $0

Dillon Peters, Marlins - Standing just 5-foot-9, Peters doesn't generate much heat on his fastball, and his secondaries (curveball, changeup) don't qualify as swing-and-miss pitches. His walk rate more than doubled with the jump from Double-A to the majors last season, but he at least kept the ball on the ground, and that allowed him to have some success at home (4.64 ERA, 6.30 ERA on the road). Pitchers of his stature are durability risks long-term, and there is no real upside to chase here. Those in mixed leagues can keep it moving, and it would take an NL-only risk taker to add him ahead of what projects to be a two-step the week of April 9. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $1

Relief Pitcher

Brad Boxberger, Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks finally settled on a closer, tabbing Boxberger as the ninth-inning man over Archie Bradley and Yoshihisa Hirano. By March, the market had come to favor Boxberger (345.39 NFBC ADP) over Hirano (408.69), but there are bound to be many 12-team leagues where Boxberger went undrafted given the uncertainty surrounding the situation. Boxberger had mixed results in his final few seasons with the Rays, but Eno Sarris of The Athletic pointed out in January that Boxberger had the best changeup last year as defined by movement and velocity off the fastball. He successfully converted his first chance with his new team, tossing a scoreless inning with two strikeouts against Colorado, and should be among the most coveted free agents in leagues where he's available. 12-team mixed: $17; 15-team mixed: $32; 12-team NL-only: $47

Hunter Strickland, Giants - The closer carousel began before the season officially did, with the Giants deciding on Opening Day to place Mark Melancon on the DL. Sam Dyson was the presumptive favorite to take over given he was the choice last year when Melancon was out, but Strickland's impressive spring swung manager Bruce Bochy to his side. While Bochy said he hopes to have Melancon back in a few weeks, he conceded he really has no idea until Melancon will start throwing again. It was reported in the offseason that dead tissue was discovered during a surgical procedure on Melancon's forearm. "It had turned gray ... The muscle was dying from being restricted," he told the Associated Press. Strickland has looked good in closing out two victories thus far, and given the questions regarding Melancon's status, he should be a top target for those shopping for saves this weekend. 12-team mixed: $15; 15-team mixed: $30; 12-team NL-only: $44

Jordan Hicks, Cardinals - Despite Hicks having never thrown a pitch above High-A, the Cardinals named him to the Opening Day roster. It's easy to see why want him in the big-league bullpen. He throws 100 mph, and they are heavily pot-committed. Greg Holland signed with the Cardinals -- he should be owned in all leagues and, if he isn't, warrants 35-40 percent of a budget -- and Hicks is a ways off from sniffing the later innings anyway, but skills hunters and streaming skeptics in deeper leagues will want to consider Hicks. He'll rightfully be popular in dynasty leagues. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $2; 12-team NL-only: $7

Carl Edwards Jr., Cubs - Brandon Morrow had a short offseason after the World Series run with the Dodgers and was a little shaky in the spring. I still like Morrow, but this first half-week has been a clear reminder of how fickle the position is. And it's not like Morrow has been a model of health. Most or all the highly-skilled setup men on good teams should be owned in 15-team leagues, and Edwards fits that description. He's off to a bit of a rocky start this year, and he's far from a lock to get the job in the event Morrow falters, with Pedro Strop and Steve Cishek also in that bullpen. However, Edwards is the most dynamic arm behind Morrow. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL-only: $11

George Kontos, Pirates - Corey Knebel, Brad Hand and Brad Brach have all blown saves already. Felipe Rivero was spared the BS (pulled from the save situation), but he had arguably the worst outing of any of them. The Pirates' closer was charged with four earned runs after giving up three walks and a hit to this murderer's row: Nick Castellanos, JaCoby Jones, James McCann and Jose Iglesias. According to FanGraphs, Rivero's fastball velocity was down nearly three miles per hour from his 2017 average. Kontos showed skills growth late in the year after joining Pittsburgh and may be worth an add now that there's a hint of uncertainty with Rivero. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL-only: $6

Robert Gsellman, Mets - Gsellman has struck out four of the seven batters he's faced so far this season -- it seems he's taking well to his new role out of the bullpen. Is he the game's next multi-inning relief ace? Probably not, but a low-3.00s ERA and 1.20ish WHIP seem realistic, and those numbers would make him worthy of a starting spot in most 12-team NL-only leagues. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $5

Catcher

Victor Caratini, Cubs - I speculated it would be Chris Gimenez in the backup role for the Cubs given his familiarity with Yu Darvish, but the Cubs gave the job to Caratini after he showed a strong handle of the strike zone during exhibition play (8:6 BB:K). That kind of disciplined approach makes Caratini appealing because it gives him a decent batting-average floor; so many catchers are net negatives due to their drain in batting average. Caratini was an above-average hitter at virtually every stop on the farm, and he's an injury to Willson Contreras away from being a borderline top-15 option at the position. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $2; 12-team NL-only: $10

Andrew Knapp, Phillies - Knapp got the start behind the plate over Jorge Alfaro in the Phillies' first two games of the season. Manager Gabe Kapler later clarified that his plan was to give both players three starts within the first six games. How the playing time will be split up beyond then remains to be seen, but Knapp has shown he can take a walk, and he had a 38.5 percent hard-hit rate in 204 plate appearances a season ago. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $7

Chris Stewart, Braves - An MRI on Kurt Suzuki's hand came back negative, but Tyler Flowers (oblique) is down for at least a month, meaning there is a window of opportunity for Stewart to play some. He had two hits, two runs and two RBI in Friday's game, but Stewart is a .230/.297/.292 career hitter with nine home runs in 1,172 at-bats. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $2

Chad Wallach, Marlins - He started the first two games for Miami, but this is not a player you need to concern yourself with. He's 0-for-10 with eight strikeouts so far. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $0

First Base

Jose Martinez, Cardinals - Let this be a lesson: Don't let a "blocked path" deter you from drafting a player who has shown borderline elite skills. Martinez did that last season, riding a revamped swing (altered bat path designed to reduce the number of grounders) to some of the best Statcast numbers in baseball. A day after he homered against Noah Syndergaard, the Cardinals named Martinez their everyday first baseman, and if he is out there in your league, make him a top priority. Martinez is for real. 12-team mixed: $24; 15-team mixed: $41; 12-team NL-only: $63

Matt Adams, Nationals - Given the nod at first base in the Nats' second game of the season, Adams hit a mammoth, 460-foot blast against Reds right-hander Luis Castillo. Manager Dave Martinez seemingly just wanted to get his bench guys involved early on, but Ryan Zimmerman battled stiffness early on in camp and was conspicuous by his absence during the Grapefruit League (two at-bats). If the notoriously oft-injured Zimmerman is secretly hurting or gets hurt, Adams, who was in the cleanup spot Saturday behind Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper, could end up being a significant run producer in that lineup. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL-only: $10

Second Base

Joe Panik, Giants - Panik followed homers off Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen with two more hits in the third game of the series. Rest-of-season power expectations should be modest, but Panik does seem to be coming into his own as a hitter at 27 years old, and he's batting in a favorable spot in the lineup against both lefties and righties. Buy him for the batting average and runs. Anything else is dessert. 12-team mixed: $7; 15-team mixed: $16; 12-team NL-only: $37

Carlos Asuaje, Padres - Carlos Asuaje, Five Hole Hitter. That was the case for the Padres' first two games of the season anyway, before Christian Villanueva pushed him to the sixth spot Saturday. The Padres need more thump in that spot (*cough* Franchy Cordero *ducks*), but Asuaje should be afforded a decent number of RBI opportunities so long as he's batting in the middle of the order. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $8

Third Base

Brian Anderson, Marlins - Anderson isn't much of a prospect, but he's getting regular run with Martin Prado (knee) on the disabled list. He's made the most of his opportunity so far, getting on base seven times through three games. In 120 contests between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Anderson popped 22 homers, and he's batting fifth in the Miami lineup. He's not worthy of a starting spot in mixed leagues yet, but he's on the radar. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $2; 12-team NL-only: $9

Ryan Flaherty, Braves - Johan Camargo landed on the DL with an oblique injury, and the Braves determined Rio Ruiz wasn't ready, bringing in Flaherty at the end of camp to fill in at third base after the Phillies granted Flaherty his release. Flaherty turned on his spring teammates, going off for four hits and four runs scored in the Braves' 15-2 thrashing on Saturday night. Flaherty is a long-time utility man, but we've seen what that park can do for lefty batters, so Flaherty at least has some appeal as a short-term corner infielder in NL-only. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $4

Shortstop

Freddy Galvis, Padres - Galvis isn't exciting, but he has five hits (including a homer) through three games. If you drafted Jose Reyes as a bench piece in a 15-teamer, you may want to go ahead and swap him out for Galvis, because at least Galvis is playing (Reyes hasn't logged an at-bat), and the power-speed combo is comparable. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL-only: $15

Wilmer Difo, Nationals - Playing time is going to be hard to come by even with Daniel Murphy (knee) on the DL, but Difo has an intriguing combination of skills. Speed is the strongest selling point, but Difo can hit for a decent average and has sneaky pop. If Trea Turner were to get hurt, Difo's stock would skyrocket. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $8

Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks - It was Ahmed's defense that earned him the primary role at shortstop in Arizona, but he's doing his best to prove he's not a total nothing with the lumber, collecting five hits (three for extra bases) in his first 11 at-bats. He was showing improvement at the plate last season before suffering a hand fracture and then a separate wrist fracture while rehabbing. Don't get carried away looking at his minuscule-sample success, but Ahmed is now at least in the discussion for those who need a middle-infield injury replacement in 15-team leagues. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL-only: $8

Outfield

Lewis Brinson, Marlins - The Marlins' fan base has a lot of fair gripes, but I do applaud the organization for rewarding Brinson for his outstanding spring when they could have easily played service-time games with him. He was the team's Opening Day center fielder and leadoff man, and he had four hits in the team's 17-inning win on Day 2. There is some swing-and-miss here, and it's uncertain if he'll run much at all, but the bat should play in most formats. He's probably not a league winner in the vein of Cody Bellinger was last year, but opening up the wallet isn't a bad idea if you've lost a starting outfielder to injury. 12-team mixed: $15; 15-team mixed: $29; 12-team NL-only: $48

Garrett Cooper, Marlins - Much to the chagrin of those who drafted Cameron Maybin, Cooper got the start in right field in the Marlins' first two games. He was hit by a pitch Friday, but tests showed no fracture, and Cooper is expected to avoid the disabled list. Cooper hit 17 homers in 77 games at Triple-A, but he was playing for Colorado Springs of the Pacific Coast League (both the team and league are notoriously hitter-friendly). He probably isn't worth adding in any mixed leagues, but it's worth keeping an eye on to see if he continues to play regularly. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $5

Brandon Nimmo, Mets - Nimmo shined in his first appearance of the 2018 campaign, collecting two hits and a walk in the Mets' 9-4 win over St. Louis. However, he's sharing time with Juan Lagares, and Michael Conforto (shoulder) is nearing a return. He'd have some deep-league appeal if he were playing regularly, but if he's seeing only sporadic opportunities, Nimmo will remain waiver-wire fodder. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL-only: $10

Brian Goodwin, Nationals - Starting in center field in place of Michael Taylor, Goodwin notched a single, a homer and four RBI in Saturday's beatdown of the Reds. What Goodwin lacks in terms of on-base skills he makes up for with thump; he fell just two points shy of a .500 slugging percentage last season. Victor Robles is obviously the highest-upside backup in the Washington outfield, but Goodwin is a sneaky-good bench piece in NL-only. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $8

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Clay Link
Clay Link is the MLB Editor at RotoWire. Clay won the overall championship in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational and finished top 10 in the NFBC Online Championship in 2018. He can be heard on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, MLB Network Radio and twice a week on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast during baseball season.
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