Picks and Pans: Gray Skies Ahead?

At the top of the draft, you are looking for the best players, the ones you think will hang the best numbers in the upcoming season. As you move through the rounds, health -- and its proxy, age -- becomes a bigger issue, but you are still picking from players who you know will have everyday jobs, rotation slots, or closer positions.

When you are looking for players who can be late-round steals or auction bargains, however, you are trying to find the intersection of ability and opportunity, and the latter is everything. You may know, just know, that the 22-year-old who had an .875 OPS at Double-A last year is going to kill it when he reaches the majors. If he is in an organization that prefers to pay a veteran to do his job rather than take the risk on a young player, your conviction gets you nowhere. The most frustrating part of fantasy baseball is not controlling the playing time of our charges.

So read these picks this year with the concept of opportunity in mind. There are as many sleepers as there are fantasy drafters, but only some of them have paths to a job on their team that can mean numbers for yours.

PICKS

Trevor Bauer
SP - Cleveland Indians

It feels as if we have been talking about him forever, but Bauer is just 25. He is coming off his first full season as a starter, a mix of successes -- a 23-percent strikeout rate, 30 starts -- and struggles, such as leading the AL in walks allowed (79). Bauer expanded the use of his two-seam fastball last year, and it became one of his best pitches, with just a .218 batting average allowed. Helped by that sinker, Bauer showed a top end last year -- eight Game Scores of 70 or higher -- that hinted at what might still come. He's locked in as the Indians' No. 4 starter and he will out-pitch that slot in 2016.

Tyler Goeddel
OF - Philadelphia Phillies

A supplemental first-round pick in 2011, Goeddel's path through the Rays' system was slowed by two years spent in the Midwest League. In part because of this, he was available to the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft last fall. Goeddel, 23, stole 27 bases a year in four minor-league seasons, and that speed showed up in his triples and double-play avoidance as well. There is some batting-average risk, but Goeddel has a clear path to the left-field job for a Phillies team that turned a Rule 5 pick in 2014, Odubel Herrera, into its everyday center fielder in 2015. Goeddel could very well best Herrera's eight homers and 16 steals as a rookie.

Liam Hendriks
RP - Oakland Athletics

The former Twins prospect became a reliever in 2015 and picked up three miles per hour on his fastball in the process. Throwing mostly low-leverage relief for the Blue Jays, Hendriks struck out 27 percent of the batters he faced with more than seven strikeouts for every unintentional walk issued. Traded to the A's, he joins a bullpen that includes veterans Ryan Madson and John Axford, as well as incumbent Sean Doolittle, but no member of the Oakland bullpen pitched anywhere near as well as Hendriks did last year. He may not be the closer on Opening Day, but he is my pick to lead the team in saves.

Corey Knebel
RP - Milwaukee Brewers

Nearly one of every five flyballs Knebel allowed last year left the yard, and he still managed a 3.22 ERA. What happens when his HR/FB regresses to the standard 10 percent for pitchers? Knebel is your classic closer starter kit, pumping two pitches, including a fastball at 95-96 mph and an impressive spike curveball. The trade of Francisco Rodriguez opens a void in the Brewers' bullpen, and I will take Knebel over Jeremy Jeffress and Michael Blazek to be the bad-team, low-cost save-collector.

Yasiel Puig
OF - Los Angeles Dodgers

Remember, you don't have to hang out with them, you just have to draft them. Even in an injury-wrecked season, Puig was an above-average hitter with a 109 OPS+, and a good defensive player. Injuries to both hamstrings -- the left in April, the right in August -- cost him 83 games, but on the day he suffered the first injury, April 24 in San Diego, he was hitting .279/.380/.465 and on his way to a big year. With a winter to rest, Puig, 25, will be poised to pick up where he left off. Given Puig's relationship with Don Mattingly, the hiring of new manager Dave Roberts can only help.

A.J. Reed
1B - Houston Astros

With the caveat that playing at Lancaster in the California League is a bit like playing on the moon, Reed had the best numbers of any hitter this side of Bryce Harper: .340, 34 homers, 127 RBI, a 1.044 OPS split between Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi. Most importantly, the decision to let Chris Carter go opens up first base in Houston. Jon Singleton may get one shot at it, but Reed is now the better prospect and the favorite to win the job, perhaps as soon as March.

Domingo Santana
OF - Milwaukee Brewers

The Brew Crew is sliding into rebuilding mode, so young players are going to get opportunities. Perhaps more important for Santana, he is the closest thing to a true center fielder on the team, so he is going to play. The power will be there, especially in Miller Park; the question is whether Santana can cut down the swing-and-miss in his game, which produced a 34-percent strikeout rate last year. Low-floor, high-ceiling players make perfect late-round picks.

Mark Trumbo
1B/DH/OF - Baltimore Orioles

In Baltimore, Trumbo may DH or he may play first base, but what's clear is that he's no longer going to be asked to play in the outfield. Being asked to take on defensive responsibilities outside his ability hurt both his overall value and his production, leaving him to hit 36 home runs total in 2014 and 2015, after he hit 36 in 2013 alone. The Orioles have had success with power hitters at a crossroads, including Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, and Steven Pearce. Trumbo, left alone to hit at Camden Yards, will poke 30 bombs easily.
Whereas figuring out who to peg as sleepers is about opportunity, figuring out who to avoid is entirely about performance.

PANS

Sonny Gray
SP - Oakland Athletics

This may be the time to take your profits and cash out. Gray, who has a 2.88 career ERA, has a career FIP a half-run higher than that. Other advanced run estimators -- SIERA, xFIP -- tell a similar story: Gray has been fortunate to keep his runs allowed this low. He's a small guy, and at the end of last season had a hip problem that cost him his final start. Gray has had the best two seasons of his career, and will be overpriced in 2016.

Ketel Marte
SS - Seattle Mariners

Marte flew through the Mariners' system on the basis of high batting averages and stolen-base numbers, reaching Seattle at 21 last summer. At just 165 pounds and with no power to speak of, he shouldn't be able to catch up with major-league velocity, but he did manage a .283 average and a 119 ISO in the majors, even as his strikeout rate spiked. Marte may eventually have a career, but I'll take the under on all of his 2016 projections.

Mike Trout
OF - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Hear me out. Trout is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, based on a body of work in which he's been the best player in baseball for four years. However, he's changed a lot in that time. Trout stole 33 bases two years ago. He attempted just 36 stolen bases in 2014 and 2015 combined! He was a .324 hitter his first two years in the league; a higher strikeout rate has made him a .293 hitter since then. The team around him is getting worse; Trout had a career-low 104 runs scored and drove in just 49 teammates last year.

Trout's 50 stolen bases in 2012 just don't help you any more. It's not that he isn't still one of the best players in baseball, but it is time to see him for what he is -- a source of power -- rather than what he was -- a five-category monster. Looking at the top of the draft, Bryce Harper, a year younger with more raw power, is a better pick. Paul Goldschmidt, who nearly doubled Trout's stolen-base total last year, is a better pick. Clayton Kershaw, 300-strikeout anchor, might be a better pick. Carlos Correa, with 30/30 upside and shortstop eligibility, may not be a better pick, but you have to at least look at him. Same, perhaps, for Manny Machado and A.J. Pollock. Trout is still great; he's just not the No. 1 guy in fantasy any longer.

Mark Melancon
RP - Pittsburgh Pirates

Melancon's 21-percent strikeout rate isn't just below average for closers, it's below average for all relief pitchers, and a tick above average for all pitchers. He racked up 51 saves by walking just 12 men (unintentionally) in 76.2 innings. His excellent groundball and pop-up rates mean he can survive with a pedestrian strikeout rate, but you're not paying for "survival" here. Melancon could lose 20 saves and add a run to his ERA next year. There are better options.

This article appears in the 2016 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. Order a copy of the magazine here.